通过BCD报告探索2024年商务旅行趋势

November 2023 Travel Market Report2024 Outlook The Research & Intelligence team Welcome to the fourth edition of the Travel Market Report, brought to you byBCD Travel’s Research & Intelligence team. This quarter’s Travel Market Report is dedicated to presenting an outlook for2024. It includes the following content: •A review of the prospects for the world economy in 2024, including some ofthe risks and headwinds it may face•A focus on some of the key risks travel managers and travelers may have todeal with next year•A look at the current state of air travel, its outlook (including an update onairline distribution) and our global airfare forecasts for 2024•The outlook for hotel room rates in 2024, starting with a global overviewand followed by the numbers for key markets in Africa and the Middle East,Asia Pacific, Europe, Latin America and North America•Our perspective on ground transportation, largely relating to car rental•With travel’s recovery underpinned by an imperative to do so in asustainable manner, we finish the report with eight sustainable travel trendsto look out for in 2024. Mike EggletonDirector, Research & Intelligence Natalia TretyakevichSenior Manager,Research & Intelligence MelinaSibajaTravel Insights Analyst Economicoutlook for2024 Current situation Growth in 2023 so far has exceeded expectations, despite persistent high inflation and monetary policy responses. This is particularly true among the advanced economies in Europe andNorth America. But what we have most likely seen is a delay to, rather than an outright change in the outlook. The transmissioninto the wider economy of the subduing effects of policytightening has simply taken longer than economists had expected. Inflation remains stubbornly high in major markets, but headline inflation should fall sharply, as commodity prices and supply chain issues ease. Recent rises in oil prices caused by tight supplyare of some concern, but it would need a more significant rise to delay the normalization of inflation, which is currently expected by the end of 2024. With inflation now under more control, interest rates are likely to have peaked in most countries, but they’re likely to remainhigher for longer, in order to curb some demand in the market. Thismay weigh on economic growth. Outlook for 2024 Regional outlook for 2024 Whilst the economic outlook for 2023 improved as the year progressed,the prospects for growth in 2024 became more subdued. Economists havenowsettled on 1.9%, a modest slowdown on the 2.5% expected for 2023.Prospects for regions vary. In advanced economies, the full effects ofpolicy tightening have yet to be felt. An underperformance from Chinamay spill over into other emerging markets. Africa–economic growth should pick up from 2.8%to3.0%in 2024, but conflicts in West Africa will weighon the region achieving its full potential. Asia Pacific–among the region’s key markets, Japan’s economy is expected to lose momentum, while Chinamust contend with challenges in its property sector, which threaten knock-on effects for domesticconsumption and investment. Europe–expected to grow by just 0.8% in 2023, the European economy has virtually stagnated. With noclear drivers of growth and facing multiple headwinds, Europe will do well to grow by0.9%in 2024. Latin America–recent strong performances in key economies, such as Brazil, are unlikely to continue into2024, resulting in a modest weakening in growth from 1.7%this year to1.2%. Middle East–while oil production cutsslowed economic growth in 2023, it should rebound above3.0%in2024. But, as well as sanctions, currency pressures, inflation and political instability, the shockwaves from theIsrael-Gaza conflict will add an extra downside risk for the region’s economy to navigate. North America–having so far been resilient, growth in the U.S. economy is set to falter amid the cumulativeimpact of interest rate hikes and weakening household finances. A mild recession is a real prospect in theearly part of 2024, pushing annual growth down from 2.1%in 2023 to just0.2%. Riskoutlook for2024 Macro risks The world economy has managed to confound most forecasters during 2023. The U.S. economy delivered a strong third quarter, unemployment hasnot spiraled up, inflation is easing, andcentral banks may be done with interest rate raises. But the foundations for future growth may not be as stable as they seem.Andeven if the economy continues to defy such concerns, therearestill more specific risks that could undermine or derail it. Geopolitical issues Persistent high interest rates Geopolitical concerns have grown significantly. Respondents to Oxford Economics’Q3 GlobalRisk Surveyrecently cited them as their top downside economic risk.3Russia’sinvasion ofUkraine has already hit the world’s economies with energy price spikes and sharply elevatedinflation. With the conflict seemingly in stalemate, efforts by either side to break the deadlockcould have new regional or even g