七月就业报告：动能放缓

Matthew Luzzetti, Brett Ryan, Justin Weidner, Amy Yang, Sourav Dasgupta1 Columbus CircleNew York, New York 10019Tel: 212 250 6161 August 7, 2026 Top charts from the July jobs report Headline payrolls surprised to the downside and shed 23kjobs; 6m average of 44k Private payrolls also disappointed, up only 30k, with a 6maverage of 54k Soft payroll gains are mostly concentrated in 2 sectors: leisure& hospitality, local education Unemployment rate fell to 4.09%, the lowest since early 2025,moving further from Sahm rule threshold Declining unemployment rate runs counter to seasonal trendsin recent years Prime-age-employment population and labor force participationchanged little after a record decline in June outside of pandemic… …the drop in participation and emp.-population in 25-34 yearolds only partially reversed Unemployment rate down by 2 percent to 14.6% for 16-19year olds, unchanged for 20-24 age group at 7.1% Q4 QCEW suggests an end to the negative benchmarkrevisions to NFP over past two years Employment/population ratio for newer workers remains offits lows from last year Employment/population ratio for higher educated workersdropped by 1% in July after stabilizing for a few months New entrants and reentrants into unemployment fell further Measures of labor market slack have on average stabilized inrecent months with some tightening Labor market sentiment is materially worse than data on theunemployment rate Labor market continues a fragile equilibrium with low hiringand firing Hiring rate remained stable in June Labor market a mixed picture relative to a year ago and pre-pandemic Employment deep dive The 3-, 6-and 12-month averages of job gains show signs ofslowing but some stability near low breakeven rates Alternative labor market measures still consistent withstabilization ADP private payroll change close to BLS in July Health care/social assistance jobs have consistentlyaccounted for nearly all of private payroll gains Job growth trends across different measures are broadlysimilar Small business hiring plans surged per NFIB survey Proxy for income growth was a bit below expectations at 3.9%but within the range of past few years Hours worked for goods-producing industries up meaningfullyin recent months Aggregate hours worked still tracking close to 2019 growthrates Real income growth from the payroll proxy edging lower asinflation accelerates Government jobs gain plummeted in July, mostly due to stateand local government, especially education services State & local governments cut jobs in July with negativeannual growth Diffusion indices show recent broadening out of job gains,though remain low relative to prior expansions Net payroll gains continue to rely on low layoffs, with stablehiring rate Job-finding rate slipped in July, mostly evident for people notin the labor force More people coming from outside the labor force in July, areversal of last month’s drop Number of workers with multiple jobs off their recent highsbut slightly elevated relative to pre-pandemic levels Labor market slack The U-3 rate ticked down to 4.1% and the U-6 rate remainedsteady at 7.9% Unemployment rate for government workers and privatesectors remained stable Permanent job losers edged lower in July Permanent job losers as a share of unemployed remains near2014 levels Youth unemployment rate for African Americans declines afterthe prior month’s jump The share of employed working part-time for economicreasons trending up but still relatively low Workers remaining in unemployment roughly the same as ayear ago Quits rate has stabilized below 2019 levels Quits rate below share of unemployed workers leaving theirjobs voluntarily Vacancy yield (hires/openings) has on balance improved butstill lower than pre-pandemic Layoff indicators generally remain low The layoff rate still at historically low levels–a key reason jobgains holding in Initial jobless claims stayed below their 2019 average recently–no signs of meaningful pick-up in layoffs Continuing claims rose a bit but remained at a low level Exhaustion rate not increasing, so recent decline in continuingclaims not likely due to people using up their benefits Measure of aggregate labor churn ( (total hires + separations) /labor force) moving sideways at low levels recently Current low labor market churn would typically be associatedwith much higher unemployment rate Conference Board jobs differential consistent with a looseninglabor market Beveridge curve now similar to 2008-19 relationship Wages Short-term trends in AHEs close to pre-Covid run rates Production & nonsupervisory workers saw slower wage growthin July Quits rate suggests wage growth could level off in comingquarters Wage premium for job switching picked up a bit to 0.7% in July Employment cost index moderating but still elevated Core services ex-shelter inflation is significantly correlatedwith the ECI Year-over-year growth of AHEs closer to pre-