北美运输业周度图表手册

Transports Weekly Chartbook Kaseedit ChoonnawatTransportation Equity Research,APACkaseedit.choonnawat@citi.com+66 2-079-3606 Ari RosaAC Adrian BaranTransportation Equity Research,North Americaadrian.baran@citi.com+1 212-816-2920 Ben Mohr Transportation Equity Research,North Americaari.rosa@citi.com+1 212-816-5874 Transport., Transport. Equip. &Shipping Eq. Research, N. Amer.ben.mohr@citi.com+1 212-816-2110 See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certification, Important Disclosures and Research Analyst Affiliations Key Takes on Weekly Data Wk 30 (3Q Wk 4) Rail Carloads through 8/1/2026 Wk 30 (3Q Wk 4) Rail Service through 8/1/2026 Rail service continues to improve from 2023 and 2024levels, as CSX and CN recover further from 1H25 networkdisruptions. UP’s velocity was 227 mi/day, down -1 mi w-w,just below 230 (has been >230 for 40 out of 49 weeks sinceAug.). CSX was down -2.6% w-w/+0.7% y-y but +15% from1H25 lows on initial reroute disruptions. NS was down -0.5% w-w/-1.8% y-y. CN was up +2.9% w-w/-4.0% y-yand +30% from weather-disrupted Feb. ’25 lows. CP was+1.0% w-w/+6.7% y-y and +13% from system cutover-disrupted June ’25 lows. Dwell times (lower=better)improved for CSX (-0.8% w-w) and NSC (-0.9%) butdeteriorated for UNP (+1.1%), CNI (+6.0%), & CP (+9.6%). Rail volumes were up +2.4% y-y QTD on strong Metals,Grain, Aggs, and Petroleum carloads. UP is up +2.5% y-y3QTD (down from +3.0% in 2Q) on Energy strength (+7.3%vs. +2.7% 2Q) and having lapped tough 1Q Intermodalcomps (up +7.0% vs. +5.7% 2Q). CSX is up +4.6% y-y 3QTD(from +6.4% in 2Q), led by Ferts/Autos, having lapped 1H25network disruption. NS is up +2.9% y-y 3QTD (from +4.6%in 2Q), led by Chemicals (up +11.7% y-y QTD vs. +6.7% 2Q).CN RTMs are +2.4% y-y 3QTD (vs. +5.7% 2Q) on Autos andGrain strength, partly offset by soft Intermodal. CP RTMsare +5.9% y-y QTD (up from +3.5% 2Q) on strong Grain andIntermodals, partly offset by softness in Coal and Potash. Other Key Macro Reads Trucking Rates & Capacity ISM Manuf. PMI:55.6 July final (up from 53.3 Jun.), highestsince May ’22 (55.9), on accelerating New Orders,Production, Backlog of Orders, Employment, and Imports. Spot Rates:Dry van rates averaged $2.75/mi last week,down -2.5% w-w/+41.6% y-y, avg. +29.9% y-y since late-Nov. when inflection began & above +40% the last 13 wks.After seasonal moderation in Jan., step-up from Feb. intoJul. has been driven by continued non-dom. CDL, ELP, ELD,and driver school policy enforcement driving capacity exits. Mich. Consumer Sentiment:55.2 July final (up from 49.5Jun.), highest since Feb., on fuel price step-down and betterdurables buying conditions but -11% y-y on infl. concerns. Trucking Capacity:For-hire freight carrier registrationswere 897k in Jun., flat from 897k May but down from thepost-Covid peak of 917k in Aug. ‘25. It is still up from ~600kpre-Covid, likely on broker tech driving owner-op. growth.But depletion of trucker savings, more stringent lending,and CDL/ELP/ELD policy ramp appear to be driving exits,even as spot rates have risen solidly above operating costs. Industrial Production:+0.1% m-m Jun. (from +0.1% May),as manufacturing output remained flat while mining andutilities both grew +0.4% each, with capa. util. being flat. Retail Sales:+0.2% m-m/+6.7% y-y Jun. (vs. +1.0% m-mMay), on +1.9% autos/non-store retailers (e-comm.), partlyoffset by -5.3% gas stations (on fuel price step-down). Intro – Rosa’s Reflections for the Week Transports shares recovering slightly from broker liability concerns:Theadvisory verdictin Lipe v. Lupus Superior that named C.H. Robinson(CHRW, the largest public freight brokerage in North America) partly responsible as a result of the Supreme Court’s Montgomery ruling weighed onTransports from the Jul. 24thdecision until this week’s rally supported by Iran deal optimism and opportunistic buyers stepping in post-sell-off. Thedownward pressure extended beyond brokers, impacting the broader Transports sector including Rails, Airfreight, Truckload, and LTLs. We believethe selling reflected two additional drivers: (1) Rotation, as investors appeared to have shifted away from 1H cyclical winners (with semis also underpressure). (2) The arguably conservative outlooks from certain names, including KNX and SAIA. KNX indicated an expectation for modest mid-single-digit revenue growth in 3Q that we believe was below many investors' expectations. SAIA sold-off despite beating expectations, reflectinginvestor caution on its 3Q guide for 100bps of sequential margin deterioration, with the company noting that the volume environment is “not asrobust as we were hoping,” informing expectations for full-year Operating Ratio improvement at the low-end of its 100-200bps prior outlook. Weput SAIA on apositive short-term viewearlier this week as we expect shares can move back above $400 in the coming months given the reset to alower (more reasonable) valuation, particularly if improving supply-demand conditions in trucking continue to exte