买入评级：指引微调难掩需求强劲

STMicroelectronics(STMPAFP) demand signals stay strong with book-to-bill“close to 2" 81.0084.00 inventoryis now belowtarget levels 46.76+73.2%(as of 24 Jul 2026) +MaintainBuywithTPloweredtoEUR81.00(fromEUR84.00) 2Q26resultsandguided3Q26belowourestimates(seeSTMicro:2Qfirsttake-Aslowerrecoverywithencouragingdemandcommentary,23Jul2026).Theoutlookwas a cleardisappointmentversus recentprice/Aloptimism(seeFromtroughtothrottle. 29 June 2026), but we see this as a call on the shape of the recovery and notand (D) net capex now expected at the high end of its USD2-2.2bn range,corroborates our view of a strong underlying demand upturn.Combined withprogress on the manufacturing reshaping plan, we still see scopefor a strong marginand earnings recovery over the next few years.Reflecting results and softer 3Qoutlook,welowerourFY26/27adj.operatingincomeestimatesby4.4%/5.9%We nowmodel adj. EPS of USD4.1/USD6.2 in 2028/2030e, still up strongly fromUSD0.5/USD1.4in 2025/2026e, respectively.Maintain Buy. Changesto estimates:Reflecting the Jun-Q results,Sep-Qoutlook,and management'scommentary,welower our2026/2027revenueestimatesby1.7%/1.1%and ouradjustedoperating incomeestimates by4.4%/5.9% LowerTP to EUR81 (from EUR84): Ourvaluation methodology is unchanged.Withtheupturn nowunderway (even if the trajectory is different to what we had expectedgoing into results), we still expect margins to recover materially over the next fewyears (FY28/29 margins of 21.9%/25.3%, upfrom FY25 margin of 4.7%).Wecontinue to value STM on a FY30e PE of 18x (unchanged) before discounting backthe resultant fair value using a WACC of 9.67% (risk-free rate 4.25%, equity riskpremium 4%, beta 1.35). This yields a target price of EUR81.00 per share (fromEUR84.00)and USD93.00 (from USD97.00)fortheADRs (EUR/USD 1.15) Adithya Metuku*, CFASenior Global Technology AnalystHSBC Bank plcadithya.metuku@hsbc.com+442032682960 Kalpesh Mahadik*, CFAAssociateBangalore * Employed by a non-US affliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations Issuer of report: HSBC Bank plcViewHSBCGlobalInvestmentResearchat:https://www.research.hsbc.com Demand trends: STM witnessed further acceleration in demand in Q2 with book-to-bill ratio ‘close to 2 overall'. It was 'well above 1' in all of its end markets, while that forCommunication Equipment&ComputerPeripheralswas'significantlyabove2',driven byoptical connectivity including silicon photonics. Management saw improved visibility andsigns of tight supply in several of its product categories.Distribution inventory decreased further in Q2 and is now below company's target levels. Pricing and input costs: Management acknowledged input inflation but noted that this is being more than offset by STM's price actions on the top line. STM's price increases willcontinue to help drive revenue into future quarters as price increases come at differentpaces in different markets.Segmental growth: Management provided its growth expectations for its segment through H2 2026. The CECP segment revenue growth is expected at similar levels of Q2 -i.e. c.60% in Q3 2026 before strongly accelerating in Q4 to c.90% y-0-y. In Industrial,growth will improve through Q3 and Q4 to reach 40% y-0-y levels in Q4. Automotive to growat low double digits, while Personal Electronics (PE) is expected to grow in the low-to-midsingle digits in FY26. Gross margin guide of 37% +/- 2ppt includes a 70bp drag from unused capacity charges.ForQ4,managementconfirmedq-o-gimprovementfromQ3levels,butdidnotcommittothe quantum of margin expansion.Managementcited a lack of Fx boost and drag fromunloading charges asfactors limitingtheQ4margin expansion sequentiallywhencomparedto the improvement expected in Q3 Silicon Carbide (Sic) revenue growth is back to growth territory with low-teens y-o-ygrowth in Q2. Management expects double-digit y-o-y growth in FY2026, supported bystrong bookings (book-to-bill well above 1) and design wins. Management now guides for 2026 net capex at high end of its USD2-2.2bn range, as thecompanyaccelerates investments in selected growth areas, including cloud opticalinterconnect. 2027 ManagementexpectsQ12027tobebetterthannormalseasonality,asmorethan50%ofQ22026bookingswere for2027. On Al data centre,management raised its guidancefor Al DC revenueto be"aboveUSD1bn"in2026and"well aboveUSD2bn"in2027,with optical cable connectivity beingthe main growth driver in 2027. Management confirmed that, with ongoing capacityrevenue growth in silicon photonics IC segment. Other Company's management reiterated its model of reaching >40% gross margin at UsD4bnreshapingprogramme(movingfrom200mmto300mmforSiliconand150mmto200mmforSiC), which is targeted by the end of 2027. Management also confirmed its2028 target to reach USD18bn revenue in 2028, while thegross margin target of 45% is conditional upon on-time completion of the manufacturingreshaping programme. commentary, 23 Jul 2026), outlook and managemen