综合货币政策决策和声明

23 July 2026 Monetary policy decisions The Governing Council today decided to keep the three key ECB interest rates unchanged. Theoutlook for energy prices, while highly volatile, currently stands close to the baseline of the JuneEurosystem staff projections and well above the levels recorded prior to the conflict in the Middle East.Uncertainty remains high and the full inflationary impact of the energy shock has yet to play out. TheGoverning Council is therefore closely monitoring the intensity and duration of the shock, as well as itsindirect and second-round effects. The Governing Council is committed to setting monetary policy toensure that inflation stabilises at its 2% target in the medium term. With today’s decision, the Governing Council remains well positioned to navigate the uncertaintycaused by the conflict. It will follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach todetermining the appropriate monetary policy stance. In particular, the Governing Council’s interest ratedecisions will be based on its assessment of the inflation outlook and the risks surrounding it, in lightof the incoming economic and financial data, as well as the dynamics of underlying inflation and thestrength of monetary policy transmission. The Governing Council is not pre-committing to a particularrate path. Key ECB interest rates The interest rates on the deposit facility, the main refinancing operations and the marginal lendingfacility will remain unchanged at 2.25%, 2.40% and 2.65% respectively. Asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergencypurchase programme (PEPP) The APP and PEPP portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystemno longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities. *** The Governing Council stands ready to adjust all of its instruments within its mandate to ensure thatinflation stabilises at its 2% target in the medium term and to preserve the smooth functioning ofmonetary policy transmission. Moreover, the Transmission Protection Instrument is available tocounter unwarranted, disorderly market dynamics that pose a serious threat to the transmission ofmonetary policy across all euro area countries, thus allowing the Governing Council to more effectivelydeliver on its price stability mandate. The President of the ECB will comment on the considerations underlying these decisions at a pressconference starting at 14:45 CET today. Monetary policy statement Press conference Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB,Boris Vujčić, Vice-President of the ECB Good afternoon, the Vice-President and I welcome you to our press conference. The Governing Council today decided to keep the three key ECB interest rates unchanged. Theoutlook for energy prices, while highly volatile, currently stands close to the baseline of the JuneEurosystem staff projections and well above the levels recorded prior to the conflict in the Middle East.Uncertainty remains high and the full inflationary impact of the energy shock has yet to play out. Weare therefore closely monitoring the intensity and duration of the shock, as well as its indirect andsecond-round effects. We are committed to setting monetary policy to ensure that inflation stabilises atour two per cent target in the medium term. With today’s decision, we remain well positioned to navigate the uncertainty caused by the conflict.We will follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriatemonetary policy stance. In particular, our interest rate decisions will be based on our assessment ofthe inflation outlook and the risks surrounding it, in light of the incoming economic and financial data,as well as the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission. Weare not pre-committing to a particular rate path. The decisions taken today are set out in a press release available on our website. I will now outline in more detail how we see the economy and inflation developing and will then explainour assessment of financial and monetary conditions. Economic activity Recent information points to some improvement in economic activity in the second quarter, eventhough the conflict in the Middle East remained a headwind. Surveys suggest that activity in theservices sector has partly recovered, after weakening markedly in the immediate aftermath of theenergy shock. Digital services have been robust, in part owing to the increasing contribution from AI-related activity. Manufacturing has continued to hold up, supported by firms building up stocks toguard against supply chain risks, as well as by higher defence spending. Unemployment stood at 6.2% in May, close to historical lows. At the same time, job postings have continued to decline andboth firms and households expect the labour market to remain weaker than before the conflict. Forward-looking indicators suggest that economic growth will remain modest in the near term,weighed down by the energy sh