综合货币政策决策和声明

18 December 2025 Monetary policy decisions The Governing Council today decided to keep the three key ECB interest rates unchanged. Itsupdated assessment reconfirms that inflation should stabilise at the 2% target in the medium term. The new Eurosystem staff projections show headline inflation averaging 2.1% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026,1.8% in 2027 and 2.0% in 2028. For inflation excluding energy and food, staff project an average of2.4% in 2025, 2.2% in 2026, 1.9% in 2027 and 2.0% in 2028. Inflation has been revised up for 2026,mainly because staff now expect services inflation to decline more slowly. Economic growth is The Governing Council is determined to ensure that inflation stabilises at its 2% target in the mediumterm. It will follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriatemonetary policy stance. In particular, the Governing Council’s interest rate decisions will be based on Key ECB interest rates The interest rates on the deposit facility, the main refinancing operations and the marginal lending European Central BankDirectorate General Communications Sonnemannstrasse 20, 60314 Frankfurt am Main, GermanyTel.: +49 69 1344 7455, email: media@ecb.europa.eu, website: www.ecb.europa.eu Reproduction is permitted provided that the source is acknowledged. Asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergencypurchase programme (PEPP) The APP and PEPP portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem The Governing Council stands ready to adjust all of its instruments within its mandate to ensure thatinflation stabilises at its 2% target in the medium term and to preserve the smooth functioning ofmonetary policy transmission. Moreover, the Transmission Protection Instrument is available to The President of the ECB will comment on the considerations underlying these decisions at a press Monetary policy statement Press conference Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB,Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB Good afternoon, the Vice-President and I welcome you to our press conference. The Governing Council today decided to keep the three key ECB interest rates unchanged. Ourupdated assessment reconfirms that inflation should stabilise at our two per cent target in the medium The new Eurosystem staff projections show headline inflation averaging 2.1 per cent in 2025, 1.9 percent in 2026, 1.8 per cent in 2027 and 2.0 per cent in 2028. For inflation excluding energy and food,staff project an average of 2.4 per cent in 2025, 2.2 per cent in 2026, 1.9 per cent in 2027 and 2.0 percent in 2028. Inflation has been revised up for 2026, mainly because staff now expect services We are determined to ensure that inflation stabilises at our two per cent target in the medium term. Wewill follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriatemonetary policy stance. In particular, our interest rate decisions will be based on our assessment of The decisions taken today are set out in a press release available on our website. I will now outline in more detail how we see the economy and inflation developing and will then explain Economic activity The economy has been resilient. It grew by 0.3 per cent in the third quarter, mainly reflecting strongerconsumption and investment. Exports also increased, with a significant contribution from chemicals. communication sector, while activity in industry and construction remained flat. This pattern of The economy is benefiting from a robust labour market. Unemployment, at 6.4 per cent in October, isclose to its historical low, and employment grew by 0.2 per cent in the third quarter. At the same time, The staff projections see domestic demand as the main engine of growth in the years ahead.Realincomes are set to rise further and the saving rate should gradually come down from its still high level,supporting consumption. Business investment and substantial government spending on infrastructure The Governing Council stresses the urgent need to strengthen the euro area and its economy in thepresent geopolitical context. We welcome the European Commission’s call for governments toprioritise sustainable public finances, strategic investment and growth-enhancing structural reforms. Inflation Annual inflation has been in a narrow range since the spring and remained at 2.1 per cent inNovember. Energy prices were 0.5 per cent lower than a year ago, after a larger decline in October.Food price inflation was 2.4 per cent, after 2.5 per cent in October and 3.0 per cent in September. Indicators of underlying inflation have changed little over recent months and remain consistent withour two per cent medium-term target. While growth in unit profits was unchanged in the third quarter,unit labour costs grew at a slightly higher rate than in the second quarter. Compensation per employee Inflation should decline in the near term, mostly because past energy price rises will drop out of