综合货币政策决策和声明

19 March 2026 Monetary policy decisions The Governing Council today decided to keep the three key ECB interest rates unchanged. It isdetermined to ensure that inflation stabilises at the 2% target in the medium term. The war in theMiddle East has made the outlook significantly more uncertain, creating upside risks for inflation anddownside risks for economic growth. It will have a material impact on near-term inflation throughhigher energy prices. Its medium-term implications will depend both on the intensity and duration ofthe conflict and on how energy prices affect consumer prices and the economy. The Governing Council is well positioned to navigate this uncertainty. Inflation has been at around the2% target, longer-term inflation expectations are well anchored, and the economy has shownresilience over recent quarters. The incoming information in the period ahead will help the GoverningCouncil assess how the war will affect the inflation outlook and the risks surrounding it. The GoverningCouncil is closely monitoring the situation, and its data-dependent approach will help it set monetarypolicy as appropriate. The new ECB staff projections exceptionally incorporate information up to 11 March, a later cut-offdate than usual. In the baseline, headline inflation is seen to average 2.6% in 2026, 2.0% in 2027 and2.1% in 2028. Inflation has been revised up compared with the December projections, especially for2026. This is because energy prices will be higher owing to the war in the Middle East. For inflationexcluding energy and food, staff project an average of 2.3% in 2026, 2.2% in 2027 and 2.1% in 2028.This is also higher than the path in the December projections, mainly owing to higher energy pricesfeeding into inflation excluding energy and food. Staff expect economic growth to average 0.9% in2026, 1.3% in 2027 and 1.4% in 2028. This implies a downward revision, especially for 2026,reflecting the global effects of the war on commodity markets, real incomes and confidence. At thesame time, low unemployment, solid private sector balance sheets, and public spending on defenceand infrastructure should continue to underpin growth. European Central BankDirectorate General CommunicationsSonnemannstrasse 20, 60314 Frankfurt am Main, GermanyTel.: +49 69 1344 7455, email: media@ecb.europa.eu, website: www.ecb.europa.eu In line with the Governing Council’s monetary policy strategy commitment to incorporate risks anduncertainty into its decision-making, staff also assessed how the war in the Middle East could affecteconomic growth and inflation under some alternative illustrative scenarios. These scenarios will bepublished with the staff projections on the ECB’s website. The scenario analysis suggests that aprolonged disruption in the supply of oil and gas would result in inflation being above, and growthbeing below, the baseline projections. The implications for medium-term inflation depend crucially onthe magnitude of indirect and second-round effects of a stronger and more persistent energy shock. The Governing Council will follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determiningthe appropriate monetary policy stance. In particular, its interest rate decisions will be based on itsassessment of the inflation outlook and the risks surrounding it, in light of the incoming economic andfinancial data, as well as the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policytransmission. The Governing Council is not pre-committing to a particular rate path. Key ECB interest rates The interest rates on the deposit facility, the main refinancing operations and the marginal lendingfacility will remain unchanged at 2.00%, 2.15% and 2.40% respectively. Asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergencypurchase programme (PEPP) The APP and PEPP portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystemno longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities. *** The Governing Council stands ready to adjust all of its instruments within its mandate to ensure thatinflation stabilises at its 2% target in the medium term and to preserve the smooth functioning ofmonetary policy transmission. Moreover, the Transmission Protection Instrument is available tocounter unwarranted, disorderly market dynamics that pose a serious threat to the transmission ofmonetary policy across all euro area countries, thus allowing the Governing Council to more effectivelydeliver on its price stability mandate. The President of the ECB will comment on the considerations underlying these decisions at a pressconference starting at 14:45 CET today. Monetary policy statement Press conference Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB,Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB Good afternoon, the Vice-President and I welcome you to our press conference. The Governing Council today decided to keep the three key ECB interest rates unchanged. We aredetermined to ensure that inflation sta