霍尼韦尔国际公司2Q26财报后调研：“验证”故事可信度提升，目标价上调至264美元

H0N 2Q26 Post Earnings: The "show me" story is lookingincreasingly credible; raising TP to 264. Recapofresults:Top line organic growthwas up 4%vs.expectations tobeflat,andadjusted operatingmargin was largely in line with expectations at 19%.EPS of $1.95 is~7%(BA 9% vs.6.5% consensus, PATat-1%vs.-7.5% consensus, IAat 4%vs.0.5% consensus).the business unit). Guidance was marginally raised as well for the full year; organic growthis up to 3-4% (vs.2-3% earlier), segment margins are up to 20.3% at the midpoint (vs.~20.0% earlier), and the EPS guidance midpoint is $8.20 vs.$8.10 in earlier. Outlook commentary: We have received a lot ofquestions on Honeywel's 4-6% organicgrowth numbers forthe back half of 2026.We think this is conservative, and reflects someamount of contingency; while we're modelling in this range, we think it's quite likely thatHoneywell beats it. BA has printed mid-single consistently and there's no structural reasonforthatto slowdown.Management has displayed highconfidencethatPATwill growShort-cycle industrial inflection will support at least some part of IA which came in wellabove expectations as well. All ofthesepointto organic growth pushing atthehigh end ofmanagement's guide (if not higher). The only other big question we get is on the bridge for IAto go from~17%margins to 22% by 4Q. We think about half of that comes from the spin ofPSS/wWSwhichhave been dilutivewhiletheotherhalf comesfrom operating leverage/self-help.Some of this is at risk ifIAgrowthslows, but wedonot anticipatethat tobethecase. InvestmentImplications WecontinuetorateHoneywell Market-Perform with a $264targetprice.Based onupdatesper guidance, we use an NTM + 1 EPS of $11.24 (Earlier $10.19) at a 20x (unchanged fromearlier)forward PEmultiple.Wethen add~$39 per share (unchanged fromearlier)ofvaluefrom their stake in QNT (assuming a QNT TP of $94 per Bernstein coverage).We believe ourchoice ofmultipleis conservative. We were relatively skeptical on Honeywell's abilityto deliver on the promise of growth and margins at Investor Day.After this print, we are much less skeptical. If the next few quarters are anything like 2Q26, we would expect the stock to see somererating. Remember, the P/E ratio you see is artificially inflated; you need to look at it ex-QNT which adds ~$20 - 30 per share ofvalueinwhichcasethestockstartslookingfarmorereasonable at19%.EPSof$1.95is~7%aheadofconsensus.Organicgrowthforallthree segmentscameinbetterthanexpected(BA9%vs.6.5% consensus,PAT at-1% vs.-7.5% consensus,IA at 4% vs.0.5% consensus).Segmentoperatingmargins also came in betterthan expected (20 - 30 bps depending on the business unit). Guidance was marginally raised as well for the full year; organicguidance midpoint is $8.20 vs.$8.10 in earlier. We do think there is some level of conservatism in 2H26, especially on growth at 4 -6%. While we have modelled this in line withguidancefor now,we'dbelookingforanysignalsfrommanagement on increasedgrowthoracceleratedmarginexpansionthatcouldstrengthenthestory.Thereiscertainlysomecontingencybakedintothatnumberfrommanagement,andshortofamajor escalation in the Middle East or a short-cycle collapse in industrials we think they are well poised on growth. Our segmentlevelperspectiveshavebeendetailedbelow. BA: This is the least cyclical and most stable pf Honeywell's business units.BA effectively start each year with a clean slate anddrive orders and conversion fromthere,so itis dependenton sales performance in the Q. Generally,the team has done a greatjob and sustained HSD organic growth. We see no real tailwinds here that would cause growth to drop below HSD, it is largelyjust the uncertainty of needing to wait for orders to flow in that keeps guidance conservative. Margin expansion is also relativelystraight line; we see it going from 27% today to ~29% in the next 2 - 3 years with sequential improvement. IA:This iswhere wehave beenmost impressedoperationally.Honeywellis expected to reach22%margins by 4Q26,and 25%as the mid-term target. While the market is extremely skeptical of this, management also seems to be extremely confident.We break the margin expansion into two pieces; near-term (teens to 22%)and mid-term (22% to 25%). In the near-term, weanticipate roughlyhalf the expansion to come from the divestment of PSS and wwS whichhave been dilutive.Theremaininghalf comes from a mix of"self-help”and operating leverage from growth.Short-cycle inflection (which affects a part of IA)weighted (i.e., the journey from 22% to 25% happens more in FY27 than in FY28/FY29).While growth is guided LSD for theback half, we do think commercial excellence and positive short-cycle movement are all tailwinds,and MSD organic in 2H26 isnotan unreasonableassumption. PAT: In our call back (as with the earning call), management displayed a high degree of confidence in their ability to meet HSDorganic growth in the back half of the year. Our understanding is that this is driven more by a recovery in catalyst volumes,whi