面向未来移动连接的频谱资源

Vision 2040Spectrum for the future of mobile connectivityCopyright © 2026 GSMA The GSMA is a global organisation unifyingthe mobile ecosystem to discover, developand deliver innovation foundational to positivebusiness environments and societal change. Ourvision is to unlock the full power of connectivityso that people, industry and society thrive.Representing mobile operators and organisationsacross the mobile ecosystem and adjacentindustries, the GSMA delivers for its membersacross three broad pillars: Connectivity for Good,Industry Services and Solutions, and Outreach.This activity includes advancing policy, tacklingtoday’s biggest societal challenges, underpinningthe technology and interoperability that makemobile work, and providing the world’s largestplatform to convene the mobile ecosystem at theMWC and M360 series of events. GSMA Intelligence is the definitive sourceof global mobile operator data, analysis andforecasts, and publisher of authoritative industryreports and research. Our data covers everyoperator group, network and MVNO in everycountry worldwide — from Afghanistan toZimbabwe. It is the most accurate and completeset of industry metrics available, comprising tensof millions of individual data points, updated daily. GSMA Intelligence is relied on by leadingoperators, vendors, regulators, financialinstitutions and third-party industry players, tosupport strategic decision-making and long-term investment planning. The data is used as anindustry reference point and is frequently cited bythe media and by the industry itself. We invite you to find out more atgsma.com Our team of analysts and experts produce regularthought-leading research reports across a rangeof industry topics. www.gsmaintelligence.com info@gsmaintelligence.com Published:July 2026 Contents Foreword5 Executive summary6Main findings10Implications for spectrum policy12Regional breakdown13 1.Introduction16The continuing evolution of mobile spectrum requirements17The need for long-term spectrum planning18 2.Mobile in the 6G era19Main findings20Impact of 6G development21How will AI impact mobile traffic growth?246G will become the predominant global mobile technology by 204025 3.Demand growth27Demand will continue to grow – but by how much?28Migration to 5G and a power-user boom will drive more demand31Spectrum needs not just driven by download and upload requirements34Spectrum needs must account for high-demand areas35 4.Network capacity evolution38Operators will deploy 6G in both new and existing bands39Spectral efficiencies40Network densification41Traffic distribution by band41Fixed network and Wi-Fi offload42 5.Spectrum needs in 2035–204043Global44Developed Asia Pacific45Southeast Asia46South Asia47Other Asia Pacific48Greater China49North America50Latin America and the Caribbean51GCC states52Middle East and North Africa53Sub-Saharan Africa54Europe55Eurasia56 Appendix 1: methodology57 Appendix 2: list of markets by region64 Foreword Paving the Roadtowards WRC The 2026 edition of the GSMA's Vision 2040Spectrum Needs is published one year beforegovernments and industry meet in Shanghaifor the World Radiocommunication Conference2027 (WRC-27). WRC-27 comes as 6G standardsand applications are evolving, but will definethe availability of spectrum resources when thetechnology is launched, including in bands suchas 4.5 GHz and 7 GHz. network equipment. Its outcomes will have lastingimplications for the cost and reach of mobileconnectivity over the coming decade. Planning for the future of connectivity requires usto look beyond today's demands and anticipatethe needs of societies more than ten years away.By securing sufficient spectrum now, we canhelp ensure that the networks of tomorrow areready to support the future innovation, economicgrowth and inclusive connectivity that will definethe next digital era. This is why the value that 6G delivers over thecoming decade will depend on the spectrumdecisions made today. As governments andindustry plan for the future, a shared visionhelps ensure that 6G supports wider nationalpriorities, from economic growth to environmentalsustainability. Because spectrum harmonisationis a long-term process, we must anticipate futurerequirements while retaining the flexibility torespond as emerging applications mature intoessential digital services. Luciana CamargosHead of SpectrumGSMA This edition of Vision 2040 updates the reportfirst published in 2025. It incorporates the latestavailable data on 5G adoption and mobile datatraffic, together with the resulting revisions to ourforecasts for mobile adoption, use case adoptionand traffic growth. The GSMA's vision for 6G is that it should beavailable to everyone, regardless of where theylive or who they are. Spectrum harmonisationat WRC-27 will help create the economies ofscale needed to reduce the cost of devices and Executive summary A global averageof 2–2.5 GHz of totalmid-band spectrum.Higher demandcountries will require2.4–3.3 G