2040愿景：面向未来移动连接的频谱

Vision 2040Spectrum for the future of mobile connectivityCopyright © 2025 GSMA The GSMA is a global organisation unifyingthe mobile ecosystem to discover, developand deliver innovation foundational to positivebusiness environments and societal change. Ourvision is to unlock the full power of connectivityso that people, industry and society thrive.Representing mobile operators and organisationsacross the mobile ecosystem and adjacentindustries, the GSMA delivers for its membersacross three broad pillars: Connectivity for Good,Industry Services and Solutions, and Outreach.This activity includes advancing policy, tacklingtoday’s biggest societal challenges, underpinningthe technology and interoperability that makemobile work, and providing the world’s largestplatform to convene the mobile ecosystem at theMWC and M360 series of events. GSMA Intelligence is the definitive sourceof global mobile operator data, analysis andforecasts, and publisher of authoritative industryreports and research. Our data covers everyoperator group, network and MVNO in everycountry worldwide — from Afghanistan toZimbabwe. It is the most accurate and completeset of industry metrics available, comprising tensof millions of individual data points, updated daily. GSMA Intelligence is relied on by leadingoperators, vendors, regulators, financialinstitutions and third-party industry players, tosupport strategic decision-making and long-term investment planning. The data is used as anindustry reference point and is frequently cited bythe media and by the industry itself. We invite you to find out more at gsma.com Our team of analysts and experts produce regularthought-leading research reports across a rangeof industry topics. www.gsmaintelligence.com info@gsmaintelligence.com Published:November 2025 Contents Foreword5 Executive summary6Main findings10Implications for spectrum policy12Regional breakdown13 1.Introduction16The continuing evolution of mobile spectrum requirements17The need for long-term spectrum planning18 2.Mobile in the 6G era19Main findings20Impact of 6G development21How will AI impact mobile traffic growth?246G will become the predominant global mobile technology by 204025 3.Demand growth27Demand will continue to grow – but by how much?28Migration to 5G and a power-user boom will drive more demand32Spectrum needs not just driven by download and upload requirements35Spectrum needs must account for high-demand areas36 4.Network capacity evolution39Operators will deploy 6G in both new and existing bands40Spectral efficiencies41Network densification42Traffic distribution by band42Fixed network and Wi-Fi offload43 5.Spectrum needs in 2035–204044Global45Developed Asia Pacific46Southeast Asia47South Asia48Other Asia Pacific49Greater China50North America51Latin America and the Caribbean52GCC states53Middle East and North Africa54Sub-Saharan Africa55Europe56Eurasia57 Appendix 1: methodology58 Appendix 2: list of markets by region67 Foreword A Shared Vision:the Road to 6G Through our research arm, GSMA Intelligence,we have drawn on our global MNO data andour unique relationship across the operator andvendor communities to generate insights onspectrum needs in the period 2035-2040, whenwe expect 6G to be at its peak. This rigorousmodelling is designed to help policymakersand industry stakeholders define the futurerequirements of mobile. At the GSMA, we see every generation of mobiletechnology as part of a continuous evolution,one that connects more people, strengthensdigital economies and helps widen access toconnectivity. Today, the industry is developingthe standards and spectrum that will shapemobile through the 2030s, a period that weexpect to be defined as the 6G era. 6G will not arrive through a single breakthrough.Instead, it will provide capacity for newapplications while supporting the developmentof services emerging today. New concepts suchas embedding AI or augmented reality into oureveryday lives will depend on sustainable andharmonised spectrum solutions. Our task is toensure that these advances remain accessibleand affordable. Careful planning is essential toensure that 6G is not just available everywhere,but available to everyone. The GSMA remains committed to working withgovernments, regulators and industry partners toensure that 6G is built on principles of inclusivity,efficiency and innovation. Understanding therequirements of spectrum will provide importantguidance on our journey. Together, we can ensure the next generationof connectivity builds on the strengths of thepast and brings the benefits of 6G to everyone,everywhere. Industry and government alignment can supporta shared vision for 6G that delivers nationaldigital ambitions – from economic growth toenvironmental goals. The spectrum choices wemake together in the coming years will determinehow effectively 6G delivers value. Harmonisingspectrum is a long-term process, and thework undertaken today will shape outcomesthroughout the 2030