2027年增长加速的更多证据：重申买入评级

Germany ITSoftware&Services More evidence of 2027 growthacceleration to come - reiterate Buy Johannes Schaller Associate Director of Equity Research-Germany accelerationSAPhad a strongQ2with thekey current Cloudbacklog (CCB)KPIgrowing at a +49-69-910-31731Nicolas Herms strong26%y/ycc,aboveour25%estimateandBloombergconsensusat24%.EvenadjustingforsomehelpfromM&A(lessthan1ppcontribution),y/yccCCBgrowthimproved slightly vs Q1 and now stands aboveboth Q2 Cloud revenue growth butalso the mid-point of FY26e cc Cloud growth guidance.This supports ourviewthatboth Cloud revenueandgroupcc growth shouldaccelerate in FY27e(groupto~12%ccfrom~10.5%thisyear).Combinedwithstronginitial customermomentumonthenewAlofferinglaunchedatSapphire(seeournotehere),pricingdiscussionsfor Al solutions in linewithexpectations and pricing dynamics forthe"traditional"Saasbusinessasrobustas ever,accordingtomanagement,wehaveyet to see any tangible signs of the Al disruption to SAP's business model that isalreadypriced into the shares.Weretain ourviewthatSAPis well on tracktomakeits Al solutions portfolio an incremental growth driver medium-termand see thecurrent valuation levels as highly compelling (7%FCF yield)in the light of a likelygrowthacceleration nextyear.Suchanacceleration shouldhelp improve investorsentimenttowardsthename-similarlytotheCloudtransitionafewyearsagowhenre-accelerating group growth marked the turning point forthe stock. Research Analyst +49-69-910-13052Nooshin Nejati Research Analyst+49-69-910-61797Yusuf Jamal ResearchAssociate KunalGuptaResearch Associate Q2andFY26eprofitabilityslightlyburdenedbyR&D,S&MinvestmentsintonewAlofferingaswell asacquisitionsbutexpectprofitabilitymomentumtoimprovefromhereWhileresultsweregood acrosstheboard, including FCFwhichbeatourestimate, operating profit came in slightly belowfor the first time in a while. SAPhas chosentoinvestmoreintoheadcountbutalsoR&D(incl.Altokens formodels)andS&MforitsnewAlofferinglaunchedatSapphireinMay.Whiletheseinvestmentscouldhave been digested intheFY26operatingprofit guidance,the alreadyannouncedacquisitions (Reltio,Dremio,Prior Labs-allin investmentmode currently) led SAPto marginallylower itsprofitability outlook fortheyear.We believe theseinvestments and acquisitions are the right strategic decisions to position thecompany strongly in Aland take comfort in a likely improvement in profit growthintoH2asthefocusreturnstooperationalefficiencyacrosse.g.hiring,travelcosts,Al token usage (with strict monitoring tools in place to maximize efficiency)andotherfactors.Overall,we see SAP on trackto deliver continued strong growth,supported by Al innovation and revenues, while retaining a decent operatingleverageandremainingwithinthe80-90%costgrowthasapercentageofrevenuegrowth framework provided a while ago goingforward. IMPORTANTRESEARCHDISCLOSURESANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSLOCATEDINAPPENDIX1.DeutscheBankdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescovered in itsresearchreports.Thus,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhave a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should considerthis report as onlya singlefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision. IT Software &ServicesSAP IT Software&ServicesSAP SAPreportedQ2revenuesofE9,878mwithgrowth remainingrobustat11%ccyly (versus12%inQ1/26and9%inQ4/25).Cloudrevenueswereup24%cctoE6,281m,slightlyaboveourexpectations going intothequarter.Growthcontinuesto be primarily fueled bythe ongoing momentum in Cloud ERP Suite (up 27% cc toE5.53bfrom30%ccinQ1/26andQ4/25),encompassingSAPS/4HANACloudERP,SAP BTP, and core solutions for HR andpayroll, spend management, commerce,customerdatasolutions,businessprocesstransformation,andworking capitalmanagement.GrowthfortheremainingSaaSandPaaS solutions(ExtensionSuite)remained more solid at12%ccgrowth (from12%inQ1/26and10%inQ4/25).Licensing revenue declined 32% yly cc (to E131m),slightly weaker than ourforecast,andSupportrevenuedeclinedby7%cc(toE2,439m),slightlybetterthanwehad expected.Servicesdeclined marginallyby2%cctoE1,027m,withSAPreallocating consultants tobuildagentextensionsand fosterAladoption. Margins remained strong,with non-IFRS Cloud gross margins reaching 74.6%,down 6Obps yly slightlybelow DBe and driven by one-offs related to the newplatform/Joule Work and increased costs for sovereignty environments.Overallgross margin at 73.4% was stable and in line withDBe.Non-IFRSoperating profit(incl.SBCcosts)amountedtoE2,743(+9%ccy/y)withmarginsof27.8%,belowourE2,858m estimate,reflecting dilution from some acquisitions,as wellashigherR&D(+14%,relatedtothehiringofhighprofiletalentandtokenspending)andS&Mspend (+7%, related to the launch of the Autonomous Suite offerings),as well asinvestmentsininternalAladoption.FcFcameinslightlyaboveourestimateatE3,002m(+27%). Guidancemarginallyupdated:new operatingprofit range now reflectsM&ASAP confirmed its outlook for FY26 largely, but updated the non-IFRS operating profit guidance to reflect >E1oOm dilution from the r