IBM股票评级下调分析：边际指导亮眼但别处更具价值

IT Services Reduce: Impressive margin guidance but better valueelsewhere + IBM cut its 2026 constant currency revenue guidance but stillguided to non-GAAP PBTmargin improving 10Obp y-o-y 174.00175.00 +Increasingour2026-30enon-GAAPEPSestimatesby1-2%to reflecthigher-than-expected margin guidance +TP cut toUSD174 (from USD175)despite 1-2%higherEPSestimatesdueto lowermultiples.Maintain Reduce Impressivemarginguidance:Aspre-announcedon14July2026,2Q26revenuerose 1% y-0-y cc to USD17,161m (1Q26: 6%).The company cutits 2026 cc revenuegrowth guidance to 4%-5%from more than 5% previously.Despite the cut to revenueguidance, the management maintained it expects 2026 non-GAAP profit before taxmargin to rise by 100bp y-o-y.2Q26 non-GAAP profit before tax margin rose 30bpy-o-y but it was largely a result of a favourable USD280m non-GAAP other income in2Q26(2Q25:USD65m).Theextenttowhichtheexpectedmargin improvementcomesfromone-offitemssuchasotherincomeisakeymonitorable Software segment disappoints: Software segment cc growth slowed to 4.6%from8% in 1Q26. Organic growth slipped to 0% y-0-y in 2Q26 (1Q26: we estimate 7%).Management cut 2026 cc revenue growth guidance to 6-8% from more than 10%The management expects low-to mid-single-digit % decline in 2H26 but suggestedmost of the missing revenue is likely delayed and not lost. Hybrid cloud subsegmentccgrowthacceleratedto11%y-0-y in2Q26(1Q26:10%).Automation segment ccgrowth slipped to 3% in 2Q26 (1Q26: 7%). Reported growth for the data subsegmentfrom the Confluent acquisition in 2Q26, organic growth slowed considerably. Source: LSEGIBES,HSBC estimates Infrastructure segment inflecting: Infrastructure cc revenue dipped 7% y-o-y in2Q26(1Q26:+12%)as thenewz17series entered its fifthquarter sincelaunch.Theweakness in the mainframes subsegmentwas partially offsetby a strong distributedinfrastructure subsegment where revenue rose 37%y-o-y (1Q26:13%),on alowbase.Themanagementnowexpectsinfrastructuresegmentccrevenuetorisebylow-single-digit % in 2026 (previously low-single-digit decline)largely due to strongerdistributed infra subsegment. Abhishek Shukla*,CFASenior Analyst, TechnologyHSBC Bank Middle East Limited, DIFCabhishek2.shukla@hsbc.com+971 4 5093343 Stephen BerseyHeadofUsTechnologyResearchHSBC Securities (USA) Incstephen.bersey@us.hsbc.com+12125254153 Expensive valuation: IBM shares are trading at 14.2x CY27e non-GAAP EV/EBITover CY26-28e (sector median 19.2%).Our TP of USD174 (was USD175)is basedonourSOTP valuation.OurTPimplies15.4%downside,and wemaintaina Reducerating as we see better value elsewhere. Sameer Lam*Global Software AnalystHSBC Bank plcameer.lam@hsbc.com+442079923780 * Employed by a non-US affliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations Issuerof report:HSBC BankMiddleEast LimitedDIFC Disclosures&Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Global Investment Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com income statement items on 14 July 2026 but had not updated its full year guidance.2Q26 revenue rose 1% y-0-y (constant currency)to USD17,161m (1Q26: 6%).The company cut its 2026 constant currency revenue growth guidance to 4%-5% from more than 5% previously. supply chain optimization and lower third-party spend. 2Q26 non-GAAP profit before tax marginrose 30bp y-o-y but it was largely a result of a favourable USD280m non-GAAP other income in2Q26 (2Q25: USD65m). Non-GAAP operating margin dipped 106bp y-0-y to 20.4%. But for thefavourable impact of other income, the non-GAAP PBT margin wouldhavebeen down about90bp y-0-y. Disappointingsoftwareperformance Software segment cc growth slowed to 4.6% from 8% in 1Q26. Organic growth slipped to0% y-0-y in 2Q26 (1Q26: we estimate 7%). Management cut 2026 cc revenue growthguidance to 6-8% from more than 10% previously. The management flagged that c20% ofIBM's software revenue comes from a point in time (as opposed to subscription revenue).Ahikes,IBM'smainframehardwareandpointintimerevenuefacedsetbacks.Annualrecurring revenue, however, rose 8% y-o-y in 2Q26, suggesting continued strength. The transaction processing subsegment dipped 9% y-0-y (cc) (1Q26: +2%), which weournoteDisappointingpreannouncement: limited read acrossfor the broader sectordated16 July 2026. The management expects low-to mid-single-digit % decline in 2H26 butsuggested most of the missing revenue is likely delayed and not lost. The managementhintedweak2026revenue could helpboost2027growth. Dataand automation segmentshoweverdisappointed.Automationsegment ccgrowth slipped to 3% in 2Q26 (1Q26: 7%).Reported growth for the data subsegment accelerated to 19% in 2Q26 (1Q26: 16%) the Confluent acquisition that closed on 17 March 2026. The management had previouslyguided to a constant currency growth of 20-25% in 2Q26.Consequently,we consider thereported growth a sig