宁德时代2026年上半年业绩符合预期，400亿元回购方案公布

ContemporaryAmperexTechnologyCoLtd Rating brian.ho@bernsteinsg.comKelvin Yuan, Ph.D., CFA Price Target kelvin.yuan@bernsteinsg.com ?300750.CH ?3750.HK770.00HKD Quick Take: CATL 1H26 - Results in line with RMB40bn buyback.Outperform. estimate.Net profit reached RMB47.0bn (+45%y-0-y),and profittoownersRMB43.3bn(+42% y-0-y) which was also in line.Management reiterated 20-30% five-year volumeCAGR (4TWh by 2030), with 2027 growth potentially exceeding this range. Total shipmentsin 1H26 reached 435GWh (+~60% y-0-y) with ESS rising to 25% ofmix and EV 75% (2/3passenger,1/3commercial).CATLshareofdomesticpassengervehiclemarketroseto46.7%andternarybatteryshareto75.2%.Utilization increased to94.9% (vs.90% in1Q26),with764GWhunder construction to come online in<2years.Per-unit net profit remainedstable at US$14.7/kWh in line with our estimates).In the upstream CATLrestarted theirJianxiawo lithiummineon29June2026whichwillcontributein2H26.CATLlaunchedtheirthird-gen Shenxing battery (15C,<4min charge) in April 2026 and their first sodium-ion EVwith Changan in mid-2026.The TENER sodium-ion ESS system is targeting shipments byend-2026.Free cash flow(OCF-capex) was RMB35bn or4%FCFyield.CATLplan a 12-month A-sharebuyback of RMB20-4Obn,canceling all repurchased shares; the RMB4Obncapis the largestA-sharebuyback ever announcedand 1.5%of share outstanding.CATLmaintained their 15% payout ratio at RMB1.41/share. Thebad:Grossmargindeclinedto23.9%from25.0%(-110bps)onhighermetal costs.Theexportrebatephase-down(13%-→9%-→4%-0%nextyear)andnewconsumptiontaxwill add additional cost pressure.Softer China EV demand andOEM supplierdiversificationremainkeyitemstowatchwithOEMrebatesrisingwithvolumes.Cashconversionwasweakerthan expected (OCF+2%)reflectingan increase in working capitalforinventories. Thebottom line:Overall revenueand net incomegrowthwas strong and in line withourestimates with no change ingrowth guidance of 20-30% CAGRnext 5-years whichlooksvery achievable.Revenue+55% y-0-y, shipments~435GWh (+~60% y-0-y,~100GWhESS/~335GWh EV), operating profit +70% y-0-y to RMB45.4bn (OPM 16.4% vs.14.9%).Per-unitprofitabilitywas stabledespiteGPMdecline.WeexpectpositiverevisionstorevenueandEBIT on these results with positive growth guidance for 2027.The size of the share buyback Results for CATL were strong as expected, but in line with our and our consensus estimates. H26 revenue and EBIT was 45% of full year, implying that 2H26 revenue and EBIT needs to grow by 40% to reach FYtargets. The biggest positive surprisewas share buy back of upto RMB4Obn which we believe is the largest in A-share history.1H26 volume growth of 60% was5%aboveourestimates,helpedstrongESSdemand.CATLclaimtheyhave5O%marketshareinChina.WhileGPMandOPMweredownsequentiallytohighercommodityprices.TheunderlyingdollarmarginperkWhwas stableat US$15/kWhDespiteweakerthan expectedcashconversionon inventorybuild,FCFwas RMB35bnmwhichwillbeusedforbuybacks.CATLmaintainedtheir 15%payout ratio at RMB1.41/share.CATLhighlighted they received large orders for sodium-ion batteriesfrom Europe and China, but did not disclose volumes. This will help to drive down costs and will help CATL to retain theirtechnologyadvantage.Overall, weexpecta positivereactionto these resultsand continueto rate CATLoutperform. :CATLdelivered 1H26revenue of RMB276.9bn (+55%y-0-y) which was in line withconsensus and our estimations 1H26 consensusrevenueofRMB278bn.2Q26revenueincreasedby57%yoytoRMB147.8bnSNE data show that CATL's xEV battery installations increased 24% yoy in 5M26 and 33% yoy in April-May 2026, whileICC data indicate that CATL'sESSbattery shipmentsgrew63%yoy in1H26 and70% yoy in2Q26.Total volume reaches435GWh(60%yoy)During 1H26,China LFP batteryprices (based on spot prices) increased 7% y-o-yto USD 81/kWh.For high nickel batterypackprices, prices increasedto USD100/kWh(2% y-o-y). Gross profit .Consensusfor1H26GPMis25.2%. Gross profit per unit (total gross profit) in 1H26 was around US$21.5 per kWh (vs. US$23.4 in 1H25 and our estimate of US$23.2/kWh). Operating profit Operating expenditures:CATLrecordedRMB20.9bn OPEX in 1H26, of which RMB9.5bn for SG&A(+19% y-0-y)whileRMB11.4bn for R&D (+12.7% y-0-y).SG&A expenditure accounted for 3.4% of total revenue (vs.4.5% in 1H25), and R&Dexpenditureaccountedfor4.1% (vs.5.6%in1H25).: Operating profit was RMB45.4bn in 1H26 (+70% y-0-y).Operating profit margin was 16.4% in 1H26 (vs.14.9% in 1H25):Operating profit per unit in1H26 was around US$15.4per kWh (vs.US$13.9 in1H25 and ourestimate of US$15.9/kWh) Netincome .Investment gain: In 1H26 CATLrecorded RMB6.2bn investment gain(14% of netincome,+114% y-0-y),of which the mostweregainsfrom investments inassociatesandJVs.Government subsidies:CATLrecorded RMB8.1bn in other incomewithmajorityfromgovernment subsidies(18%ofnetincome,29% yoy).: CATL reported 1H26 net profit of RMB47.0bn (+45% y-0-y), which is in line with our estimate by 2%..Netprofit perunitwas aroundUS$14.7perkWh (vs.US$15.9 in1H25and o