IBM 2Q26回顾：调整不断变化的客户行为

2Q26 Recap: Adjusting forChanging Customer Behavior IBM's 2H acceleration centers on its ability to recover more ofthe slipped ELA deals, improve overall execution, andcontinued strength in distributed infrastructure, storage,Power,andthez17mainframecycle. UnchangedU.S. SoftwarePOSITIVE lowered -9% from USD 288.00Price (22-Jul-26)USD 205.77 Potential Upside/Downside+27.3%Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research Following mgmt commentary that roughly one-third of the delayed large enterprisetransactions had already closed within the first few weeks of Q3 as well as an emphasis that thecustomer behavioris due to demand deferral ratherthan demand destruction, we have moreconfidence around IBM's 4% y/y growth base case for FY26. That said, the timing andnormalizationofcustomerbehaviorawayfromAl infrastructure/storage/memorypurchasesis debatably an uncontrollable nuance toIBM's upside in 2H.We expect execution to improve intheback-halfof theyear,which can be an offsettothis potential headwind, andIBM is trackingahead on its productivity agenda (guidingto1oobps ofoperatingpre-tax margin expansion andreiteratingitsFCFguide).WereiterateourOWrating,althoughlowerourPTtoS262(fromS288)to accountforpotentially lowerupside in FY26. Market Cap (USD mn)193400Shares Outstanding (mn)939.89Free Float (%)99.1252 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn)6.7Dividend Yield (%)3.28Return on Equity TTM (%)35.93Current BVPS (USD)35.08Source: Bloomberg The Numbers: Total revenue of $17.2bn grew 1% y/y (1% in cc vs. cons.3% cc) and came in-3%belowcons.($17.86bn).Total softwarerevenuewasreportedat$7.76bn (vs.cons.$8bn),growing 5% cc (vs. 8% cc in Q1), powered by hybrid cloud growth of 11% cc (vs. cons. 10.8% cc),automation growthof 3% cc (vs.cons.8.5% cc),datagrowthof18%cc (vs.cons.20%cc),andtransaction processing growth of-9% cc (vs. cons. -2.6% cc).Consulting revenue of s5.33bn (vs.cons $5.40bn) grew 1% cc (vs. 0.9% cc in Q1), and was driven by strategy and technology growthof 1% cc (vs. cons.2% cc) and intelligent operations growth of 1% cc (vs. cons 1.3% cc).Infrastructure revenue was s$3.84bn (vs. cons $3.97bn) growing-7% cc (vs. 11.7% cc in Q1),driven by hybrid infrastructure growth of-10% cc (vs. -2% cc), and infrastructure support growthof-1%cc (vs.cons.-6%cc).Non-GAAPgrossprofitmarginof59.4%was~10obpsbelowcons (60.4%),and Non-GAAP OM of 20.4% beat by 25bps (20.2%).Mgmt.moved FY2026guidance from 5% cc revenuegrowth to 4-5% y/y,although kept FCFgrowth expectations at$1bn. Price PerformanceExchange-NYSE52Week rangeUSD 332.46-204.44 Source:IDCLinktoBarclays Liveforinteractivecharting U.S.Software Positives: (1) Infrastructure guidance was raised from a low-to-mid single-digit y/y decline tolow single-digit growth as customer CapEx spend shifts toward Al infrastructure,underscored by37% growth in Distributed Infrastructure, IBM's strongest quarter on record. (2) Mgmt. expectsstrong 2H acceleration driven by normalization in ELA conversion rates and improving softwaretransaction closures,supporting its FY26 software growth outlook of 6-8%.(3) Mgmt.maintained itsFY26free cashflowgrowth outlook (~$1By/y increase)despite lowering revenueguidance,reflecting confidence that productivity initiatives can offset revenue headwinds. Raimo Lenschow, CFA+1 212 526 2712raimo.lenschow@barclays.comBCI, US Sheldon McMeans+1 212 526 1544sheldon.mcmeans@barclays.comBCI, US Barclays Capital Inc.and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to dobusiness with companiescovered inits research reports.Asa result,investors should be aware that thefirm mayhaveaconflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider thisreportasonlya single factorin makingtheirinvestment decision. Eamon Coughlin+12125266142eamon.coughlin@barclays.comBCI, US Please seeanalyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page9.Completed:23-Jul-26, 05:08 GMT Released:23-Jul-26, 05:09 GMTRestricted-External mainframe-related ELAs and weakness in Transaction Processing software,as customer capexspending shifts toward infrastructure over software. (2) Software revenue grew 5%, but growthwas largely driven by the HashiCorp and Confluent acquisitions, while the core businessdelivered approximately 0% organic growth. (3) The FY26 outlook now relies on a meaningful 2Hre-acceleration in software and ELAconversions,creating execution risk if customers continueprioritizingAlinfrastructure spending oversoftwarepurchases. Downside caseUSD151.00IBM operates in a competitivemarket across many of its productareas and has expanded intoadjacent markets through M&A,which creates execution risk.Further, IBM has a compelling LTgrowth opportunity aroundquantum computing that if notsuccessful could compressmultiples. IBMbroadly reported mixedQ2 resultsthat cameinlowerthan expected acrossmostkey metrics,butthis waswellknownduetothecompany'spre-announcement (IBMCorp.:NegativeQ2Pre-AnnouncementRequiresSecondLook,7/14/26).TurningtosoftwaresegmentresultsHybri