贸易战3.0：新的持久关税壁垒

Allianz Research|22July2026Trade war3.0:Anew,lastingtariffwall In Summary Ana BoataHeadEconomic Researchana.boata@allianz-trade.com With Section 122's flat 10% tariff expiringon 24July,the switch to Section 301andSection 338tariffs willsendthe US average import tariff back above 2025's IEEPA-eralevelto 12.4%,up from a May low of 7.7%.Andthis time itshouldstick: Section 301requiresformal USTR investigations andisfar harder to challenge incourt.History showsthese tariffs tend to outlive the administrations that impose them: China's 2017 case isalready in its second statutory review.On top of Section 301, the US will continue usingSection 232 tariffs,concentrated on a few sectors–automotive, steel, aluminum,pharmaceuticals–while AI products remain largely shieldedatbelow 5% thanks toanarrow scopeof surtaxed electronic productsand carve-outs for Taiwan and South Korea.So far, globaltrade flows have proven more resilientthan feared: 2025 export losses camein at USD74bn, well below the USD134bn forecast, withUSD57bnexpected in 2026 asfrontloading, rerouting, shipment-timing shifts and exemptions cushion the blow. But withthetrade war 3.0 the real shift will be structural.Amongthelargest economies,China(+13ppsto 35%),theUAE (+7pps to 22%),Brazil (+8pps to 20%)andVietnam (+8ppsto15%)facethe steepesttariffincreasesandnow rank among the highest tariff levelsoverall.Bycontrast,the UK,South Africa,Taiwan and the Philippines remaincomparatively insulated,withtariffs holdingstable at4-7%,a divergence set to acceleratethe supply-chain reallocation already underway.China's US import sharecollapsedfrom21% in 2016 to13% in 2024and9%in 2025,whilethat ofreroutingalternativesin ASEANjumpedfrom7% to 14%. Lluis Dalmau TaulesAfrica and Middle EastEconomistlluis.dalmau@allianz-trade.com Maxime DarmetUS, France and UK Senior Economistmaxime.darmet@allianz-trade.com Garance TallonAPAC Economistgarance.tallon1@allianz-trade.com Francesca ScalfiResearch Assistantfrancesca.scalfi@allianz-trade.com Theinflationpunchof tariffsin the USisfading, but a second round is already warmingup.With the H1 2025tariffwave now largely passed through, the tariff drag on inflationshould fade fast–reachingnear zero in H2 2026,andbringing the full-yearcontributiondownto +0.3pp.But the truce won't last:Section 301and Section 338tariffsshould pushthe effective rate to 12.4%byQ4 2026, reignitingtariff-relatedprice pressure into 2027(+0.4pp, peaking at +0.5ppannualizedin Q2 2027),keeping core CPIstickyat+2.7% evenasheadline inflation cools to +2.2% onenergy deflation. For corporates, the marginsqueezehaslargelypassed:margins fortariffed-goods fell up to-5.5% versus a no-tariffcounterfactual, peakinginQ3 2025 before recovering as pass-through advanced.But therecovery is uneven–manufacturers have rebounded,whileretailers, wholesalers andtransportation remain under pressure.Section 301 is now the main event, but the trade war has plenty of extra time to play. Section 301isbecoming the administration's tool of choice,driven by geopolitics,withVietnam and Germany facingfresh investigations overIntellectual Property (IP)andpricing ofpharmaceutical products,respectively.Section 338will also become Trump’snew more reactive toolto use as anegotiationstool.Watch for NATO defense-spendingdisputes(e.g. Spain), Chinese rerouting through Asian supply chains and above all digitalservice taxes–a 100% DST-linked tariff on the EU would push its effective rate to 52% andcost-USD60bn in exports. Elsewhere, tariff relief to incentivize investment in constrainedsectors (aluminum),bilateral deal-making resumes–India's 18% interim rate still awaitsfinalization–while export controls, notably on AI models following the Anthropic Fable5/Mythos 5 episode, could become a new lever mirroring weapons-export policy. Finally,USMCA's shift to annual reviews through 2036 opens structural fault lines on automotiverules of origin, Chinese content via Mexican nearshoring and agricultural access. Trade war returns with Section 301and Section 338 The expirationofSection 122's flat 10% tariffon24July will openanewlegalchapter built on Section301andSection 338,which combined with existing Section 232 tariffswillreturntheUSaveragetariff rate to12.4%(Table1).The forced-labor investigation under Section 301, the first of the ongoing 301 investigations,has followedits trackandis expected to beimplemented on theexpiryofSection 122tariffs. All 60 economiesunderreview,accounting for 99% ofUS imports,willfaceeither a10%or 12.5%tariff on all goods,exceptforknown exemptions,goodsalreadysubject toSection 232tariffsandgoods covered under separate bilateral tradeagreements.Theresults of asecond 301 investigation onovercapacity, covering a separategroup of16 economies,havenot yetbeenannounced,but we expecttheUnited States Trade Representative (USTR)to have found sufficient evidenceto add an additional10% to 12.5% tariff rate on top of the announced forced labor one.We assume, thissecond301 investigation