中国产能过剩追踪：6月数据显示新经济与传统行业分化

Overcapacity tracker June data continue to show a divergence between new-economy and traditional sectors. External demand is playingan increasingly important role in absorbing domesticcapacity. We see evidence of China moving up the technologyvalue chain. Asia Credit Research Roanna Chau+852 2903 2625roanna.chau@barclays.comBarclays Bank, Hong Kong China Economics Ying Zhang+852 2903 2652ying.zhang3@barclays.comBarclays Bank, Hong Kong THE 2026 EXTEL SURVEY IS NOW OPEN Support our industry-leading analystswith 5-Star votes in this year’s ExtelGlobal FI Research Survey View Analysts Vote Now Strong becoming more concentrated. China’s June production and export data continue toshow a divergence between new-economy and traditional sectors, although strength isincreasingly concentrated in select upstream and enabling technologies. External demand is playing an increasingly important role in absorbing domestic capacity.Household appliances appear to be benefiting from more balanced external demand, as seen inthe sharp production-export divergence in autos and air conditioners. Exporting overcapacity remains the main theme, but the composition isshifting. The Junedata remained consistent with our view that the movement of goods from China wouldaccelerate and broaden across sectors, although they increasinglydifferentiatebetweencapacity-clearing exports and products benefiting from stronger pricing or an improving mix. Traditional capacity-heavy sectors remain weak domestically. Cement and select industrialproducts remain more characteristic of traditional overcapacity exports. Analysing the data: Export strength meets domesticdivergence Roanna Chau Barclays Bank, Hong Kong Strong becoming more concentrated. China’s June production and export data continue toshow a divergence between new-economy and traditional sectors, although strength isincreasingly concentrated in select upstream and enabling technologies. Integrated circuitproduction remained robust at 18.8% y/y, albeit moderating from 22.9% in May, while exportvalue growth accelerated further to 121.9%, despite export volumes declining marginally by0.3%. This suggests that the semiconductor export story is increasingly being driven by higherunit values and/or ashifttowards higher-value products rather than shipment growth alone.Lithium-ion batteries also remained resilient, with export volumes and values rising 23.5% and31.7%, respectively. By contrast, the NEV complex showed a widening disconnect between domestic production andexternal demand. June output fell 34.2% for hybrid passenger cars and 32.4% for plug-inhybrids, while pure electric vehicle production was broadly flat at -0.6%. Yet export volumesremained strong, rising 105.3%, 183.3% and 81.3%, respectively. Household appliancesoffereda more balanced picture. Refrigerator output, export volume andexport value rose 14.7%, 18.9% and 19.5% y/y, respectively, while washing machine exportsremained positive, with volumes and values increasing 11.9% and 9.8%. Air conditioners alsorecorded a June export turnaround, with export volumes and values returning to growth of11.3% and 10.1%, respectively, following contractions in May, despite domestic productionremaining weak at -9.6%. The timing coincides with record heat across Western Europe andrising demand for cooling equipment. Unlike traditional capacity-clearing exports, the broadlymatched growth in air-conditioner export volume and value suggests that the improvement wasprimarily demand-led rather than driven by price discounting. Overall, the recovery remains uneven, with the strongest in semiconductors and batteries, whilethe sharp production-export divergence in autos and air conditioners suggests thatexternaldemand is playing an increasingly important role in absorbing domestic capacity. Exporting overcapacity remains the main theme, but the composition isshifting. In late2025, we argued that the movement of goods from China would accelerate and broaden acrosssectors in 2026 - an unintended consequence of anti-involution policies and persistently weakdomestic absorption. The June data remained consistent with this view, although theyincreasinglydifferentiatebetween capacity-clearing exports and products benefiting fromstronger pricing or an improving mix. Integrated circuits are the clearest example, with exportvalue growth accelerating from 84.9% y/y in March to 99.6% in April, 110.9% in May and 121.9%in June, even as volume growth slowed from 12.9% in March to 3.6% in April, 2.0% in May and-0.3% in June. The widening gap between value and volume suggests an improvement in exportunit values and/or product mix, making this less indicative of volume-led capacity clearing andmore consistent with China moving up the technology value chain. Aluminium also illustrates the growingdifferentiationwithin sectors. Aluminium-product exportvalue surged 77.0% y/y against volume growth of 44.9%, pointing to higher unit values or an improving p