空客中期指引、50亿美元股票回购及2029年后飞行计划

France A mid-term guidance, a 5bn buybackand a flight plan beyond 2029 Christophe Menard ResearchAnalyst+33-1-4495-9315Sriram Krishnan, CFA Airbus disclosed a mid-term guidance that aligned well with current marketexpectations.The positive surprise,however, came fromtheE5bn three-yearsharebuy-back.Theotherkeymessageisthatcommercialgrowthwillnotflattenout in2029,with widebodyand servicegrowthon theagenda.AsforDefence&SpaceandHelicopters,theyaresettocontinueontheirgrowthtrajectory.Buy,PTraisedfrom226to232. Research Analyst+44-20-7541-0983SamrudhAgrawal ResearchAssociate Buyback seenaspositivesignal,whilemid-termguidance in lineAt its businessupdate,Airbus confirmed its 2026 guidanceand discloseda2029 mid-term guidance,with an adjusted EBIT of 12-13bn in 2029 versus theBloombergconsensusof13bn.Thisdisclosureisunderpinnedbystrongdemandand unprecedented visibility across all businesses.The company reaffirmed itscash-conversion target of around 1 over a five-yearhorizon.More importantly,itannounced a much-anticipated 5bn share buyback program over three years, inaddition to the 30%-50% dividend payout policy disclosed in 2025.This policy toreturnapproximately60%ofFCFtoshareholdersshouldbeseenasapositive,inourview. Keychanges Growthstorytocontinuepost2029,drivenbywidebodyandservicesWidebody ramp-up is expected to continue beyond 2029,with a decision anticipatedin2026tofurtherincreasetheA350production rate.Thecurrenttargetis12permonthby2028,butcould reach14-16inourview.Bottlenecks aremainlyonthecabinsidefornow.Abettermixisalsoontheagenda:Airbusconfirmed itisexaminingbothA220andA350stretches,providedmorepowerfulenginesareavailable.Pratt should continue to power the A22o.Services are also a growthdriver,withAirbusaimingtodoubleservicesalesbetween2025and2030to10bnthroughorganic growth and M&A.Regarding profitability,theA350 is expectedtoreachitssweet spotbeyond2029,inthe2030s,withservicesalsoanticipatedtodisplaydouble-digit margins in 2030.A focus on reducing non-quality incidents by50% in2027 shouldalso contributetoprofit.Deliveries are expected tobe moreevenlysplit across theyear post2028-2029.Longerterm,withtheadvent of theA320replacement,Airbusalsoexpectstofurtherrebalanceitsbusinessmodelandcapture more aftermarketrevenues. Defence&Spaceand Helicopters continueontheirgrowthtrajectoryBoth divisions continue on the trajectory laid out in June 2025,with the 2029 Aerospace &DefenceAirbus trajectory,with significant traction from constellations and military space.InDefence,growth continues to be fueled by capacity increases,with MRTTstill some uncertainties on what Airbus will replace FCAs with. Helicopterscontinueto grow,drivenbymilitaryCAGRclose to 6%, civilat 4%,and innovationsacrosstheentireproductportfolio (of13products). We enclosed our Q2 estimates.Thekey driver for Airbus Commercial remains 67 extra deliveries year-on-year in Q2.This drives operational leverage, partially offsetHelicopters expects similarvolumesyear-on-year, while Defence &Spaceshouldexpected to be positive,supported byhigher deliveries despite inventorybuildupahead of H2 back-end loaded deliveries. Buy,PTraisedto232(from226)We raisedpourPT from226to232mainlyasthe resultof thebuyback programme on share count. We assumed the following phasing in the buy back :800m in2026,1.6bn in both2027and2028 and 1bn in2029.Our price targetremainsbased onthe average of threemethods:a2028EEV/EBITSOTPvaluationyielding290(from286),whereAirbusCommercialisvaluedat20xEV/EBIT2028(comparedwithBoeingabove22x)andDefense,Space,andHelicoptersata15.3x3-yearforward multiple (peer based); a DCF valuation resulting in E197 per share(from190);anda4%FCFyieldapproachbasedon2028E,whichyields208pershare(from202). Aerospace&DefenceAirbus Aerospace&DefenceAirbus Aerospace&DefenceAirbus Appendix 1 *Other information available upon request subjectof this resetlypublishedcomare strongly encouraged to reviewthis information before investing ImportantDisclosuresRequiredbyU.S.Regulators 1.Within the past year, Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) has managed or co-managed a public offering for this company,forwhichit receivedfees.2.Deutsche Bank and/orits affiliate(s)mayact as a marketmakerorliquidityproviderinthefinancialinstruments issuedbythis company.7.Deutsche Bank and/orits affiliate(s) has received compensation from this companyforthe provision of investmentbanking or financial advisory services within the pastyear8.Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) expects to receive, or intends to seek,compensation for investmentbankingservices from this company in the next three months.14.Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) has received compensation from this company within the past year for non-investmentbankingrelatedservices.15.investmentbankingservices.21.This company has been a client of Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.within the past year, during which time it receivednon-investmentbankingsecurities-relatedservices. Important Disclosures Required by Non-U.S