人工智能支出全球经济的新引擎 摩根士丹利专栏

00:00:00 Welcome to thoughts on the market. I'm Seth carpenter, Morgan Stanley's global chiefeconomist and head of macro research. And I'm Michael gapin, chief us economist and I'mcheitan Aya, chief Asia economist and I'm Jens Eisen Schmidt, chief Europe economist. Andtoday is going to be our third quarter economic Roundtable, taking a wide angle view on theglobal economy and all the key forces shaping our outlook and the economy. It's Monday,July 20th at 10 am in New York and four pm in Frankfurt and 10 pm in Hong Kong. 00:00:32 Since our last Roundtable In April,the global economy has continued to face all sorts ofshocks,a mix of resilience and friction.Inflation pressures have not disappeared.Energy andgeopolitical risks have come up.They've receded,they've come back,they've receded all overthe place.But there is one underlying source of momentum that we have to talk about,andthat is The AI driven capex cycle. 00:00:55 Michael,let me turn to you,because the us is a real focal point of all of this.Tell me a little bitabout where Morgan Stanley research is thinking about hyperscalar capex,how big it is,andthen for you when you think about the us economy,just how big of a driver is it,for whatwe're looking for in the us and know we continue to revise higher our estimates forhyperscaal or an AI related capex in the us economy,we we were thinking a little over atrillion for2027now we're more like one point two one point three trillion,maybe as highas1.4trillion in2028so.So the level of hyperscalar spending continues to keep rising. 00:01:36 The growth rate and its effect on the economy is likely to slow,but as you noted,it's still amajor driver of momentum in the us s you would look at that headline number and thinkwow,that's you know,three and a half percent or so of GDP must be a massive source ofmomentum for GDP growth,but roughly about60%of that hypers scaleal or capex spendinggoes to items like computers and peripherals equipment spending categories that have avery,very high import content.We still got a significant number that AI capex is probablycontributing around40basis points to growth this year be a similar sized amount perhapsnext year.So for an economy that's growing somewhere a little bit above2%right nowmaybe closer to two and a half percent next year,that's a nontrivial amount we just have toremember it's. 00:02:32F around the world, just not here in the us. Yeah, that's a really great point because I have seen some estimates where people say, well, if it wasn't for AI capex, the us economywouldn't have grown at all and that's clearly wrong as you point out. But us imports arennecessarily exports from somewhere else. And cheden, if I can pull you into the story thenus firms are buying a lot of AI related equipment from Asia. What does that mean in yourpart of the world? And in particular I'm thinking about Korea, Taiwan and maybe someother economies in Asia. What's the critical story there? So for Asia this has definitely beena big boom. If you look at Asia's exports, they have been booming and particularly for theones which are exporting semiconductors to the us s, they are seeing semiconductorexports growing by 90% and when we go back in time and compare Asia's semiconductorexports, it's very tightly linked to the us it capex and it's not surprising. 00:03:32 When Mike gapan mentions about the imports going up, it's on the other side helping Asia'sexports quite meaningfully so. So far we' have seen this benefiting Korea, number one,Taiwan and also Japan. All these three are big beneficiaries of us s AI capex. And of coursealso not just us s but the other countries which are doing any little amount of capex on AIfront, that's also helping these three economies in the region. You've been doing a lot ofwork, Chet, and recently about how much the story can actually broaden out that The AIcapex cycle has really contributed to Asian growth, but it doesn't tell the whole story thatthere's a broader industrial cycle. Can you, can you give us a little bit of a flavor of thatstory? That's right, Seth. So we are actually highlighting that there is a capex and industrialsupercycle that is underway in Asia. And there are four components to this story, AI andsemiconductors, capex, which we just briefly discussed. 00:04:32 Number two is energy, number three is defense and number four is industrial supply chainonshoring related capex. I know that everybody still thinks that AI is the most importantpart of this story but when I give you the numbers and the breakup of that, so for Asia AIand semiconductor companies, capex is about 380 dollars billion dollars in 2026, but energycapex is going to be 900 dollars billion dollars so this is a far broader story than just AI forAsia. Mike, let me come back to you and into the us then. So isn't the growth story alsobroader than that as well domestically? So what's going on in terms of consumer spendingin the us and is there a broader capex story in the u