澳大利亚需要‘新的增长引擎’：保罗·布洛克斯汉姆（Paul Bloxham）在《澳大利亚人报》上的专栏文章

Paul BloxhamChief Economist, Australia,NewZealand& GlobalCommoditiesHSBC Bank Australia Limitedpaulbloxham@hsbc.com.au+61 2 9255 2635EconomicsAustralia ◆ 2The recent sharp pivot in US migration policies could present Australia with opportunities. The US iscurrently the largest recipient ofinternational students, followed by Canada, the UK and Australia. Iffewer international students are willing or able to move to the USto study, Australia may become a moreattractive destination.At the same time, recent US education funding policies that seek to defund its university sector couldoffer Australian universities theopportunity to seek to attract high-quality academics. This could bolsterAustralia's own research capability and increase interest frominternational students.To achieve this would require a substantial pivot by Australian policymakers, who have recently been seeking to cut back oninternational student numbers to slow migration to deal with housingaffordability issues. Fixing Australia’s housing challenge ought tobe about increasing housing supply,rather than curtailing a key growth engine.Finally, the expansion of Australia's trade and financial linkages with ASEAN and India is a keyopportunity. Australia's exports aredominated by trade with China, Japan, and Korea, accounting for58% of the total, while the ten ASEAN economies plus Indiaaccount for only17% of Australia's exports.India and the ASEAN countries are the fastest growing large emerging economies on the planet, and we havegeographical proximityto them. It is quite surprising how small and narrowAustralia’strade is with thesecountries.India takes only5% of Australia's goods exports and the bulk of this is coal. Indonesia accounts for just2% ofAustralia’sexports,which are highly concentrated in just a few products, including coal, wheat, andgold.Signing trade agreements with these countries would no doubt help. We also see potential avenue inseeking to leverage alreadystrong people-to-people connections with these countries to support greatertrade and financial linkages. The largest group of recentmigrants to Australia is from India and the latestcensus shows that 7% of Australians were born in India or Southeast Asia.This list of potential growth engines is by no means exhaustive and others may emerge. The key messageis that to take advantageof them will require the mobilisation of private sector investment, and this willoccur only if there are profitable opportunities. A broad-based and comprehensive agenda forproductivity-enhancing reform is needed. Disclosure appendixAnalyst certificationThe following analyst(s), who is(are) primarily responsible for this document, certifies(y) that the opinion(s), views or forecastsexpressed herein accurately reflect their personal view(s) and that no part of their compensation was, is or will be directly orindirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or views contained in this research report: Paul BloxhamThis document has been prepared and is being distributed by the Research Department of HSBC and is intended solely for theclients of HSBC and is not for publication to other persons, whether through the press or by other means.This document does not provide individually tailored investment advice and should not be construed as an offer or the solicitationof an offer to buy or sell any securities or to participate in any trading strategy. The information contained within this document isbelieved to be reliable but we do not guarantee its completeness or accuracy.Any opinions expressed herein are subject tochange without notice.HSBC may hold a position in, buy or sell on a principal basis or act as a market maker in any financialinstrument discussed herein.HSBC and its affiliates will from time to time sell to and buy from customers the securities/instruments (including derivatives) ofcompanies covered in HSBC Research on a principal or agency basis.Analyst(s) are paid in part by reference to the profitability of HSBC which includes investment banking revenues.Additional disclosures1This report is dated as at 02 June 2025.2All market data included in this report are dated as at close 01 June 2025, unless a different date and/or a specific time ofday is indicated in the report.3HSBC has procedures in place to identify and manage any potential conflicts of interest that arise in connection with itsResearch business. HSBC's analysts and its other staff who are involved in the preparation and dissemination ofResearch operate and have a management reporting line independent of HSBC's Investment Banking business.Information Barrier procedures are in place between the Investment Banking, Principal Trading, and Research businessesto ensure that any confidential and/or price sensitiveinformation is handled in an appropriate manner.4You are not permitted to use, for reference, any data in this document for the purpose of (i) determining the interestpayable, or other sums due, under loan agreements or un