蓬勃但分化的出口

Booming yet bifurcated exports Exports, a key engine for growth, beat expectations by a widemargin, led by Al-related and green-tech products. However,low-tech and labor-intensive goods lagged behind. Thiscontributes to a growing divergence across industries. Thepositive spillover from exports to the labor market is limited +85229032653yingke.zhou@barclays.comBarclays Bank, Hong KongYing Zhang +85229032652ying.zhang3@barclays.comBarclays Bank, Hong KongJian Chang theAsiaex-JapanEconomicscategory. +85229032654jian.chang@barclays.comBarclays Bank, Hong Kong THE2026EXTELSURVEYISNOWOPEN Support our industry-leadinganalystswith5-Starvotesinthisyear's Extel Global FIResearchSurvey ViewAnalysts Vote Now :June:27%y/yforexports,and36%y/yforimports(bothinUsDterms) Bloombergconsensus(Barclays):19%y/y(20%)forexports,and26%y/y (24%)forimports :May:19.4%y/yforexports,and27.4%y/yforimports (bothinUsDterms) China's exportgrowth surged to27% y/y in June,far exceeding expectations(Bloomberg:19%;Barclays:20%) and acceleratingfrom 19% in May.The stronger exports partially offsetweakeneddomesticdemand.Weexpectexports tocontinuetobenefitfromtheglobalAlcapexinvestment cycle and the ongoing global energytransition,providing an importantbufferforgrowth. However, similarto the broaderbifurcation in themacro economy,the export dataalso pointtoAl-related and green-tech goods, while low-tech and labor-intensive sectors (~15% of totalexports)lagbehind,withexportsoffootwearandtoysremainingincontraction. industries: rising profits and stronger pricing power in high-tech sectors, such assemiconductors and electronics, versus declining profits and persistent price pressures intraditional industries, including textiles and household consumer goods. This trend has beenclearly reflected in the recent manufacturing PMI data (see: China: Modest improvement withsectoral divergence,30June2026). industries, we believe the positive spillover from exports to the domestic labor market has beenlimited. As a result, the export boom is unlikely to translate into a rapid recovery in householdincome or consumption,which explains thecontinuedsoftnessin domestic demand 122% y/y in June, while exports of automatic data processing equipment and related parts(~7% of China's total exports YTD)increased 66%.We estimate that these two categoriestogether contributed ~8pp to headline exports growth, which comprises over 40% oftotalexports growth of17.6%YTD.For context, China accounts for over 30%ofglobal export valuecomputers, semiconductorcomponents, electrical boards and chip-making equipment. fuelling Chinese growth by boosting demand for its renewable energy-tech exports. YTDexports data showed strong, double-digit growth in these segments, including EVs (+71%y/y), wind turbines (+49% y/y), lithium batteries (+45% y/y), transformers (+33% y/y) and solarcells (+26%).We think a prolonged period of geopolitical tensions will accelerate the globalgreen transition, which will ultimately benefit China as the world's leading green-technology Detailsof Juneexportdata ·By destination: Export growth strengthened across most majortrading partners.Regionaltrade remained particularly strong, with shipments to Asean surging 34.5% y/y, which was thefastest pace in five years with a record-highmonthly export value of USD78.3bn, contributing6.2pp to headline export growth.Exports to Japan,Korea,and Taiwan also edged higherfrom May,growing by around 28% y/y,while exports to the Eu (June:18.5%, May: 7.6%) andthe UK (June: 16.6%, May:1.7%) also strengthened.Tradeflows between the US and Chinacontinued to normalize.Although export growth to the US moderated to 14% y/yfrom 35.4%previously, export value reached USD43.5bn, the highest level since February. On a sequentialbasis, exports to the US rose 11.4% m/m in June, following a 6.2% increase in May. ·By product: Major export categories accelerated in June.Semiconductor exports valuesurged 122% in June, following a noticeable 111% increase in May.Auto exports remainedcontinued to expand (June: 15%, May: 9%). Exports of furniture, general equipment andmachineryalsoaccelerated in June. Juneimportspostedanotherstronggain Imports continuedto outperform expectations amidtheglobal Al investmentboom.Headlineimports rose36%y/y in June, well above consensusforecast of26%and accelerating from27%in May. The strength was driven primarily by mechanical and electrical products, imports ofwhich surged 47.5%y/y, the fastest pace in more than 16 years.Agricultural imports alsorecovered, with soybean imports returning to growth, while commodity imports slowed On a volume basis, energy-related imports showed mixed trends. Crude oil imports fell sharplyby 41%y/y to29.3mn tons, the lowest level since October2016, despitemore favorable oil pricesduring the month. The decline came against continued inventory drawdowns, with China'scrude stockpiles falling to 1.2bn barrels by end-June from 1.25bn barrels at end-April, accordingto Kpl