市场版：回归拓宽

Recorded: July 17, 2026 Published: July 21, 2026 Host: Beata Manthey, Head of European Equity Strategy, Citi Guest: David Groman, Senior Equity Strategist, Citi Transcript: OpeningTeaser (0:00) Research @ Citi Markets Edition. Beata Manthey (0:06) Welcome to Research @ Citi Markets Edition, where we break down global macro in 10 minutes.I'm your host, Beata Manthey, Citi's Head of European Equity Strategy. Joining me today is our Senior Equity Strategist, David Groman. Welcome to the show, David. David Groman (0:20) Thanks, Beata. Great to be back. Beata Manthey (0:22) So David, the markets have turned more volatile recently, driven by tech-related jitters and, ofcourse, the renewed geopolitical risks out of Iran. But to put this in context, global equities havehad a great run in the past few months and are up around 10% yeartodate. But the ride hasbeen anything but smooth. So we've had the Iran conflict, AI volatility, the sharp sector rotation.How would you characterize this first half of the year? David Groman (0:51) Yeah, as you'd say, I'd call it a bumpy climb.The pattern this year has actually been remarkablysimilar to 2025:solid index-level gains, but with a lot happening beneath the surface. We've seen really three distinct phases this year.In the run-up to the Iran conflict, ex-U.S.equities outperformed, and tech was actually a laggard. Then from late February onwards, U.S.and tech leadership really reasserted itself in the market. And then more recently, we've startedto see signs of rotation again. Some of the crowded trades, like semis and Korea, have comeunder pressure. So it's a tricky moment, but despite short-term volatilities, we still think equities look interestingon a 6–12-month horizon. Beata Manthey (1:26) OK, so let's try to put the current market volatility aside for a moment and have a discussionabout the outlook for the second half of the year—and of course the central debate, which isthe theme of our latest global equity quarterly as well:Will we see a sustained broadening ofmarket leadership beyond tech going forward? David Groman (1:50) So we've had a taste of this broadening in the past few weeks. And I guess the big question nowis,Can it last? And our answer is partly yes, but maybe not a full broadening.We actually like tocall it“narrow broadening.” There are really two conditions you need to meet for a sustained broadening trade to take hold.First, you need evidence of a broad cyclical recovery, both in macro and earnings. I think we arestarting to see that.Economic data globally is improving and more frequently surprising to theupside. And at the same time, our earnings revision indices have improved significantly. Soactually, over 60% of global sectors are now in net earnings upgrade territory, which hashistorically been supportive for cyclical market outperformance. The second condition is a sustained pause in tech outperformance, and that's less certain.Techhas been under a lot of pressure lately, but the sector continues to screen very highly on ourfundamentals-based models, with standout earnings growth and notably valuations that areactually a lot less stretched than many other sectors right now. So one of the two conditions for broadening is met, which gives you some broadening, but techcould also remain a key pillar from here. Beata Manthey (2:52) That's really interesting on tech valuations, because I think a lot of investors assume tech is stillthe most expensive part of the market. But indeed, it's actually one of the cheaper globalsectors on traditional price-to-earnings ratio. But I think increasingly the debate is turningtowards the earnings. The sector, and especially semis, have seen huge EPS upgrades over thepast year.Socould we be in something like an earnings bubble for many of these names? David Groman (3:19) That’sa great question. And for us, I think much of the debate comes back to the underlying AIbuildout, which has knock-ons for everything else down the AI value chain.When speaking toour analysts covering all of these names in depth, what they tell us is that there is still solidenough return on this AI investment to keep global AI capex growing at a steady pace out overthe next few years. And while there is now focus on some of the zero-sum aspects of the AI buildout—moreexpensive memory ultimately weighing on free cash flow of hyperscalers, for example—theunderlying profit pool for tech and tech-adjacent sectors should remain strong on the whole. But Beata, let's talk a little bit about what we're actually recommending here.What are some ofthe meaningful changes that we've made in our last global quarterly? And could you walk usthrough some of these key shifts? Beata Manthey (4:05) Absolutely. I think the biggest change is Japan.We've upgraded it all the way to overweight. Andas the market leadership broadens and cyclical conditions hopefully continue to improve, Japanstands out as one of the best-placed beneficiari