韩国存储出口追踪（2026年6月）：2026年第二季度高带宽内存（HBM）表现强劲，三星表现尤为突出

Korea Memory Export Tracker (Jun): Strong HBM in 2Q26, esp. forSamsung We track the Korea export data as it is a good early indicator for Samsung’s & SK hynix’sHBM revenue in the same quarter, and update this tracker with the Jun data. Details of ourmethodology can be found in our prior note. The dataset can be downloaded at this link. Mark Li+852 2123 2645mark.li@bernsteinsg.com Overall HBM export was very strong, up 46% QoQ vs. Mar, & set another record high.Jun data grew 45% MoM on seasonality & more importantly up 46% QoQ. Overall 2Q26exports increased by 39% QoQ. Edward Hou, CFA+852 2123 2623edward.hou@bernsteinsg.com Yipin Cai, CFA+852 2123 2669yipin.cai@bernsteinsg.com Data suggested Samsung 2Q26 HBM growth could beat our estimates.Exportfrom S. Chungcheong Province (where Samsung packages HBM) grew 2x MoM, and wasstronger than expected. Overall 2Q26 was up 75% QoQ. Regression predicts Samsung’s2Q26 HBM revenue to rise by 89% QoQ to US$6.7B, above our model. Export for SK hynix stayed robust.Jun export from N. Chungcheong & Icheon recoveredby 11% MoM and was up 5% QoQ. Regression predicts SK hynix 2Q26 HBM revenue togrow 25% QoQ to US$7.6B, in line with our forecast. Data suggests a continued ramp of HBM4 at Samsung.As HBM has much higherdollar value per weight, we track “value per weigh” as it may be directionally suggestiveof HBM price change. Jun “value per weight” grew another 30% MoM for Samsung butremained largely flattish for SK hynix. We believe this was likely driven by a continued rampof Samsung’s HBM4 rather than a broad HBM price hike. The trend over the past fewmonths has been generally positive for Samsung but flattish or declining for SK hynix. Data shows HBM price has been insulated from the volatility of conventionalmemory price.Conventional memory price surged, but HBM price, as suggested by valueper weight, largely stayed in the same range as before, as indicated by SK hynix’s data. Export to Malaysia bounced back sharply.It surged to US$1.1B in Jun, mainly thanks toa recovery of exports from Samsung. And generally export to Malaysia has been growingmeaningfully over the past few quarters. No sign of HBM export to destinations other thanTaiwan & Malaysia, and also no sign that Samsung or SK hynix was producing HBM at alocation that we don’t track. Our methodology thus remains robust. Overall Jun data suggested robust HBM growth for 2Q26, with a notable sign ofHBM4 ramp at Samsung.Between the two, Samsung appeared to be stronger & aheadof our forecast, while SK hynix was in line. We also maintain that Samsung is improving itsposition in HBM4 & should gain more momentum in 2H26. On the other hand, HBM pricebeing resetting now should trigger an upward revision for 2027. Conventional memory price rise will continue in 3Q26 and HBM price increaseshould also bring earnings revision.We see continued price increase in 3Q27 &also HBM price hike in 2027 to lead to more earnings revision. We remain structurallyconstructive on Samsung, SK hynix & Micron but negative on KIOXIA on China competition(see our sector update). Our detailed SOTP valuation also finds KIOXIA over-valued. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS Samsung Electronics:We rate Samsung Electronics Outperform with price target of KRW 440,000. SK hynix :We rate SK hynix Outperform with price target of KRW 3,300,000. DETAILS Korea Customs Service has released export data for Jun. Asour previous notefound, the export data for certain memoryproducts bears close correlation with HBM revenues of Samsung and SK hynix. We hence track the monthly data to provideinvestors a preview on HBM revenues from the two companies in the same quarter. Details of our methodology can be found inthe previous note. You may also download the export data at thislink. Export data suggests Samsung’s 2Q26 HBM revenue likely was notably ahead of our estimates thanks to a veryrobust Jun. SK hynix HBM revenue is indicated to grow healthily and in line with our expectation, but notablyslower than Samsung. •Jun Korea total multichip memory export to Taiwan and Malaysia was up strongly by 45% MoM, & reached another recordhigh of US$6.2B. Jun data was up 46% QoQ (vs. Mar) and also up 119% YoY (Exhibit 1). For all of 2Q26, export was upsignificantly by 39% QoQ. As we analyzed before, multichip memory export to Taiwan and Malaysia tracked closely with HBMrevenues of Samsung and SK hynix and therefore the Jun data indicated strong and accelerating momentum into 2Q26. •If we focus on the export from S. Chungcheong Province, where Samsung’s back-end fabs are and likely where its HBM ispackaged, Jun export surged to US$3.4B, doubling from May. And we also note that Jun single month export by Samsungsurpassed that of SK hynix, for the first time since HBM exports took off in early 2024 (Exhibit 2). Overall 2Q26 export grewby 75% QoQ, which is notably stronger than our forecast of 51% growth for Samsung HBM in 2Q26 (Exhibit 3). Accordingto the