美国HPC扫描更新：美妆为亮点，家庭需求疲软

U.S. HPC Scanner Update: beauty remains the bright spot ashousehold demand stays soft U.S. HPC scanner trends remained mixed in the latest quarter. We publish our Q3 QTDscanner update, covering the period ending July 11, with comparisons against Q2 and Q1.Beauty continues to be the bright spot, while Household and Family Care categories remainrelatively subdued. Cristian Rios+1 917 344 8615cristian.rios@bernsteinsg.com Yolanda Zhang+1 917 344 8346yolanda.zhang@bernsteinsg.com Among our coverage names,P&Gdelivered +2.5% sales growth in Q3 QTD, down from+3.0% in Q2, reflecting moderating category growth and softer pricing. Beauty remainedP&G's strongest segment (+6.4%), supported by +4.7% volume growth, while Fabric &Home Care grew +2.2% and Baby, Feminine & Family Care increased just +0.5%. Colgateposted +3.5% sales growth in Q3 QTD, down from +4.0% in Q2, driven byimproving volume trends, particularly in Home Care (+8.3%) and Pet Nutrition (+6.5%). OralCare remained positive at +1.7%, while Personal Care declined 4.0%. e.l.f. Beauty's total sales grew +1.0% in Q3 QTD, down from +1.2% in Q2, as weaknessin Cosmetics (-6.3%) was offset by continued strength in Skin Care (+38.8%). For e.l.f.,we used Nielsen's xAOC dataset rather than U.S. Full View to better reflect Naturium'sunderlying performance, as changes to Naturium's Amazon distribution strategy may distorttrends in the U.S. Full View dataset. Even on this basis, Naturium remained the standoutperformer, generating +58.2% sales growth, driven by +88.1% volume growth. Notably,Nielsen captured e.l.f.'s Hair Care business for the first time this quarter. The categoryrepresented ~4% of company sales during the period and provides an incremental growthdriver beyond Cosmetics and Skin Care, and it is not yet reflected in the Cosmetics/SkinCare segment tables below. We will incorporate Hair Care into future e.l.f. scanner updates. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We ratee.l.f Beauty Market-Perform, with a PT of $60. We believe e.l.f has the most relevant operating model for today’sconsumer -social media fluency, rapid innovation cycles, and a viral-prone approach to new product development. However,EPS have been extremely volatile after a big acquisition (Rhode), distribution expansion, increased marketing and payrollinvestments and a slowing-down core. We are long term believers, but think some stability and margin expansion is neededbefore the stock can appreciate. We forecast 2% and 7% YoY EPS growth NTM and NTM+1, respectively, making us bearish vs. consensus on NTM+1 EPS by~5%. We have a target multiple of 17x. We rateProcter & Gamble Market-Perform, with a PT of $156. P&G has a diversified portfolio (categories and regions) that is,by design, hard to accelerate or disrupt. Bright spots in Beauty (relative to the rest of the portfolio) will help sustain LSD organicsales growth, with potential upside from upcoming innovation in Laundry Detergents, but challenges from Private Label in morecommoditized categories like Bathroom Tissue and from smaller competitors in Disposable Diapers are unlikely to go away. We forecast 1% and 5% YoY EPS growth NTM and NTM+1, respectively, making us bearish vs. consensus on NTM+1 EPS by~1%. We have a target multiple of 21.6x. We rateColgate-Palmolive Market-Perform, with a PT of $96. Colgate has the most productive geographic footprint in ourcoverage, balancing diversification with growth and powered by strong HPC Brands in International markets. While HPC will bepartially weighed down by their underperforming North America segment (stagnant categories, share loss), we like CL’s GlobalPet business, which will further premiumize as Cat Food, which has a higher price per pound, grows faster than Dog Food. We forecast 4% and 9% YoY EPS growth NTM and NTM+1, respectively, making us bullish vs. consensus on NTM+1 EPS by~2%. We have a target multiple of 23.1x. DETAILS EXHIBIT 1:2026 Q3 QTD Performance - PG Latest Period End: 2026-07-11 EXHIBIT 2:2026 Q2 Performance - PG Latest Period End: 2026-06-27 EXHIBIT 3:2026 Q1 Performance - PG Latest Period End: 2026-03-21 EXHIBIT 6:2026 Q3 QTD Performance - CL Latest Period End: 2026-07-11 EXHIBIT 7:2026 Q2 Performance - CL Latest Period End: 2026-06-27 EXHIBIT 8:2026 Q1 Performance - CL Latest Period End: 2026-03-21 EXHIBIT 11:2026 Q3 QTD Performance - ELF Latest Period End: 2026-07-11 EXHIBIT 12:2026 Q2 Performance - ELF Latest Period End: 2026-06-27 EXHIBIT 13:2026 Q1 Performance - ELF Source: Nielsen Total US xAOC, Bernstein Analysis I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURES References to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, SanfordC. Bernstein (India