大众汽车Q2展望：欧洲需求稳健 vs 中国市场疲软

Germany Auto Manufacturing Solid European demand versus ongoingChina weakness - Q2 preview TimRokossa Head of European Equity Research+49-69-910-31998 VolkswagenisexpectedtoreportQ2resultsandhostaconferencecallonJuly24th. Group deliveries declined by 8% y/y to 2.1m units during the quarter, primarilydrivenbyChinawherevolumesfell by37%duetoaweakmarketenvironment,thediscontinuationofsalessubsidiesandongoingmodeltransitions.Allotherregionsremained ingrowthterritory,withEuropeup3%,NorthAmerica up8%and SouthAmericaup9%yly.Thedeliverydeclinewasbroadlyspreadacrossthepassengercaroperations,with both the Core and Progressive brand groups downaround 8-9% y/y,while Porsche deliveries declined by18%.Traton showed 4%deliverygrowth.Europeandemandcontinuestobesupportedbystrongorderintake,withtheorderbookup12%YTDandBEVsaccountingfor31%oftotalEuropeanorders. Research Analyst+49-69-910-31924 Research Analyst+49-162-5168792 ResearchAnalyst+49-69-910-48637 Fromanearningsperspective,weunderstandvolumeisasmallsupportwhilepricemix will be a negative y/y with the price pressure in Europe and North Americaintensifying.FS shouldalsoseesomeburdenfromlowerresidualvalueonfirstGenBEV. Furthermore, we understand that Q2 will include a low triple-digit m non-cash charge related to the discontinuation of the automated driving alliance withBosch.On cashflow,inventory build associatedwithnew modellaunches anda$1bnSDV-relatedequityinvestmentshouldweighonperformancebutautomotivenet cash flow in Q2 is still seen to be slightly positive. Mira WiegratzResearchAssociate+49-69-9103-1733 In ourview,thekey question is whether still solid demand trends outside China,reflected by strong European orderintake and order backlog,together withongoingbenefitsfromVolkswagen'scostimprovementplan,aresufficienttooffsetthecontinued weakness in Chinaand atthe high-endbrands. Guidance-nochangeexpected Volkswagen guides forsales revenuegrowth of 0-3%ylyand anoperatingprofitmarginof4.0-5.5%forFY26.WithinAutomotive,the investmentratio is expectedbetween11-12%,reportednetcashflowat3-6bnandnetliquidityat32-34bn.Wedonotexpect the companytochange itsguidancewiththeQ2-26numbers. Auto ManufacturingVolkswagenAG Revenues Appendix 1 *Other information available upon request subject of this research,please see the most recently published company report or visit ourglobal disclosurelook-uppage on our websitare strongly encouraged to review this information before investing ImportantDisclosuresRequiredbyU.S.RegulatorsDisclosures marked with an asterisk may alsobe requiredby at least one jurisdiction in addition to the United States.See Important Disclosures RequiredbyNon-UsRegulators and ExplanatoryNotes.1.Within the past year, Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) has managed or co-managed a public offering for this company.forwhichitreceivedfees.DeutscheBankand/oritsaffiliate(s)mayactasamarketmakerorliquidityproviderinthefinancialinstrumentsissuedbythiscompany7.DeutscheBankand/orits affiliate(s)has receivedcompensationfromthis companyfortheprovisionof investmentbanking orfinancialadvisory serviceswithinthepastyear.8.Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s)expects to receive, or intends to seek, compensation for investment bankingservicesfromthiscompanyinthenextthreemonths.14.investmentbankingrelatedservices.15.This company has been a client of Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.within the pastyear during whichtime it receivedinvestmentbanking services. ImportantDisclosuresRequiredbyNon-U.S.Regulators Disclosures marked withanasteriskmayalsobe requiredby at least one jurisdiction inadditiontothe United States.SeeImportantDisclosures Required byNon-USRegulators and ExplanatoryNotes. 1.Within the past year, Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) has managed or co-managed a public offering for thiscompany,forwhichit receivedfees.2.DeutscheBankand/oritsaffiliate(s)mayactas amarketmakerorliquidityproviderinthefinancialinstruments issuedbythiscompany24.Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) is or has been over the previous 12months party to an agreement with thecompany relatingtotheprovisionof services setout inSectionsAand Bof AnnexIof Directive2o14/65/EU,orhasovertheprevious12monthsbeenobligedorentitled(asapplicable)topayceivecompensationrelatingtotheprovisionof services setoutin SectionsAand Bof AnnexiofDirective2014/65/EU. SpecialDisclosures Adirectororofficerof thiscompanyisamemberofDeutscheBank'sManagementorsupervisoryBoard. Fordisclosures pertainingto recommendations or estimates madeon securities otherthanthe primarysubject ofthisresearch,pleaseseethemostrecentlypublishedcompayreportvisitourglobaldisclosurelook-uppageonourwebsiteat https://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/EquityResearchDisclosures.Asidefromwithinthisreport, important riskencouraged to review this information before investing. AnalystCertification Theviewsexpressed inthisreportaccuratelyreflectthepersonalviewsoftheundersignedleadanalyst(s)aboutthesubjectissuer and the securities of the is