欧洲软件与IT服务行业Q2财报季展望及SAP AI战略解析

IndustryEuropean Software EuropeNorth America & IT Services Do numbers even matter anymore? Johannes Schaller Expect a solid reporting season but share prices to be largely driven by factorsother than fundamentals Associate Director of Equity Research - Germany+49-69-910-31731 Going into Q2 reporting season, our checks and industry conversations point to amixed picture with some companies such as SAP likely to see a fairly stable demandenvironment (despite the challenging geopolitical backdrop) while the picture isvery diverse across Engineering Software and IT Services. In Engineering Software,we prefer higher-quality names with stronger recurring revenue profiles and lowercyclical exposure, while in IT Services outcomes are likely to diverge moremeaningfully, with limited Middle East exposure leaving players such as Capgeminibetter shielded from recent geopolitical disruption despite ongoing weakness indiscretionary spending. While headline risk from new AI model launches seems tohave somewhat subsided (i.e. Software stocks react less) due to already verybearish investor positioning across hedge funds but also long onlies, we do notexpect Q2 to be a turning point yet even for names with decent/better-than-fearedquarters. The main driver of Software share prices remains positioning and therelative strength of AI Semis/Hardware, in our view, combined with medium-termuncertainty around the financial model for SITS players in an AI world. The latter islikely to change as we go into 2027 where we expect major players such as SAP andDassault to provide more of a framework around how to model its AI business andfinancial opportunity towards the end of this decade (and beyond). Yet, for now itremains wait and see with new customer wins and AI contract proof points beingwhat the market should focus on, in our view, in order to gauge success of the AIstrategies of the companies within our coverage. Nooshin NejatiResearch Analyst+49-69-910-61797 Nicolas Herms Research Analyst+49-69-910-13052 Tintin Stormont Research Analyst+44-020-7541-1558 Lars Vom-Cleff Research Analyst+49-69-910-13526 Yusuf JamalResearch Associate Kunal GuptaResearch Associate All eyes on more AI proof points from SAP Following new AI solutions announcements at Sapphire 2026, we see additionalcustomer proof points and details on commercial success as key from here (andmore important than results). Our checks indicate good customer feedback on thenew AI offering post Sapphire with the availability of large parts of SAP‘s AIroadmap to on-prem customers (if they sign a RISE Cloud migration deal) a catalystfor many Cloud migration latecomers to make the move. This should help Cloudgrowth towards next year and FY28, in our view. SAP will have to provide someincrementalKPIs and a more detailed financial framework around the AIopportunity, which is expected to account for ~1/3 of Cloud revenues by 2030, atone point. We would expect this with Q4 results or Sapphire 2027 after the companyhas been able to sign AI deals based on their new offering for 6-12 months. 14 July 2026IT Software & ServicesEuropean Software & IT Services Combined with re-accelerating growth next year, this could be a catalyst for arerating of the shares again while for now the market will closely monitor the uptakeof the new AI offering and we expect SAP to give a comprehensive update on newdeals signed every quarter. We believe SAP's management understands what isrequired to remain competitive and successful in an AI world and is taking the rightdecisions which should again reward patient investors in the longer-term. Key takes on Q2 by subsector Withinlarge-cap Software, we expect a solid Q2 for SAP. We see current Cloudbacklog (CCB) growth for Q2 at ~25%, in-line with company guidance for slightlydecelerating CCB growth throughout FY26 and slightly towards the upper end ofwherewe see market expectations(24-25%incl.M&A).Healthy bookingsmomentum should drive continued close to 30% growth for its Cloud ERP Suite,from ~30% y/y cc in Q1/26, accounting for headwinds from only slightly growingtransactional revenues. We model Q2/26 Cloud revenue growth at ~23% y/y cc andoverall P&L metrics to be broadly in-line while consensus FCF for Q2 appears toohigh (distorted by outliers). Most importantly, we expect SAP to reiterate its FY26cc outlook for revenues, EBIT and FCF which should remove fears over a potentialguidance cut related to the Middle East situation. Having said that, investment inproduct/AI as well as infrastructure rollouts (mostly for sovereign Cloud) could limitmargin upside into H2 and next year as management alluded to at Sapphire in Mayalready. For Sage, we believe the momentum will continue in FQ3/26 but toughercomps could be a slight offset. With strong momentum in ARR, we believe Sage willeasily achieve its full year target of >9% top-line growth. We are modelling recurringrevenue growth of 9.7% organically on continued momentum for Intacct especia