软件及IT服务行业：进一步复苏，缺乏狂热

Software/IT services sector: Further recovery, less euphoria On Tuesday after market close, we attended the semi-annual meeting of France’s tradeassociation of software and IT service companies (Numeum). The organisation presentedthe results of a survey conducted among its members in April/May covering 413 companiesand CIOs, 43% of which were IT service providers, 29% software vendors and 28% CIOs.As usual, it engaged an industry research firm—in this case Xerfi—to conduct the survey andforecast growth through 2026 for the various market segments it tracks. Derric Marcon+33 1 58 98 06 30derric.marcon@bernsteinsg.com Richard Nguyen+33 1 42 13 54 22richard.nguyen@bernsteinsg.com Still recovering but less so than initially anticipated.First, we note that this survey wasconducted when the Middle East conflict was very much in the foreground and GDP growthforecasts for France had already begun to be revised down (10bp drop between late Marchand late April). The survey also reflects the very low morale among small firms, spanningboth software vendors and IT service providers. For small IT service firms, challengesinclude the trend among clients to consolidate and narrow down their lists of preferredsuppliers, the shift toward nearshore and offshore delivery models, and the need to investin new technologies. For small software vendors, difficulties centre on the capacity to investand the need to avoid being hit by rising operating costs associated with AI-powered tools.For these reasons (economic climate and the weight of small businesses' responses tothe survey), we are not overly concerned by the slightest hint of optimism emerging fromthe poll compared to six months ago. For once, the main downward revision relates to thesoftware segment (from +8.4% to +6.2%), while IT services firms’ growth is projected toremain in the low single digits. Numeum anticipates higher growth in 2H than 1H for allsegments. See details in Exhibit 1 and Exhibit 2. Specialist Sales Kiran Shah, CFA+44 20 3547 1533kiran.shah@bernsteinsg.com ‘SaaSpocalypse’ not a reality but a foreboding.While software vendors are not seeingtheir existing business being disrupted by new entrants—with no increase observed inchurn and no proliferation of ‘software factories’ springing up to replace establishedsoftware—those surveyed believe that decision-makers are taking longer to make choicesdue to the technological upheaval caused by AI. They also express more concern about thefuture than we had anticipated. For software vendors still in the early stages of AI adoption,the road ahead appears long—both to monetise new features and evolve technology stacksto match the capabilities of AI-native companies. One statistic in particular struck us: 22%of CIOs believe that agentic AI could replace or reduce certain software expenditures. Theword ‘certain’ is crucial here, as it likely refers to applications that are less central to corebusiness operations. This echoes a study by the consulting firm Bain highlighting its ability—within the context of M&A processes—to identify applications that could be 80% rewrittenin just ten days using AI. Continued on next page... … continued from previous page Bringing IT services back in-house is certainly an option, but not because of AI.In the survey, members highlight thepossibility of in-sourcing IT services activities. This option has always existed, but it tends to gain traction during periods ofrapid, profound innovation as companies seek to internalise the knowledge associated with these new technologies. In otherwords, it is not AI driving this move to insource but rather the pace of innovation and technological disruption. AI: a source of additional business, but no margin boost.Whether for software vendors or IT service providers, theproductivity gains observed and projected are substantial, yet neither group anticipates a significant improvement in profitability—for various reasons, primarily the passing on of gains to clients and the need to shoulder additional costs. Energy efficiency/green IT: no longer a priority.Unfortunately, faced with technological disruption and the need to evolveinformation systems and remain competitive, energy efficiency and Green IT rank as a priority in 2026 for only 22% of the CIOssurveyed—well behind cybersecurity, compliance, the optimisation of unavoidable costs, and generative AI. EXHIBIT 1:Numeum market growth forecasts by segment (yoy %) INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS No changes in rating and PT. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURES References to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, SanfordC. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. I