SpaceX：中国长征十号助推器着陆成为真正竞争对手

Douglas S. Harned, Ph.D.+1 917 344 8430douglas.harned@bernsteinsg.com Space Exploration Technologies Corporation Stacy A. Rasgon, Ph.D.+1 213 559 5917stacy.rasgon@bernsteinsg.com Nestor Wester+44 20 7676 7067nestor.wester@bernsteinsg.com Price Target Specialist Sales 239.00 USD SPCX Steve Song+1 917 344 8401steve.song@bernsteinsg.com SpaceX: China Long March 10 booster catch - The real competitorsteps forward; SpaceX readies launch 13 On July 10th, China successfully landed the first-stage booster from a Long March 10Brocket launch. We see China as the lead competitor for SpaceX. This launch and recoverycomes roughly six months earlier than we expected. China is moving aggressively in to placea research station on the moon and create large LEO satellite constellations. In December,China filings filed with the ITU to place more than 200,000 satellites in low earth orbit. Close Date10 Jul 2026SPCX Close Price (USD)145.30Price Target (USD)239.00Upside/(Downside)64%52-Week Range225.64/145.07SPX7,575.39FYEDecDiv YieldNAMarket Cap (USD) (B)1,912.03EV (USD) (B)1,925.67 Despite China’s success in landing its Long March 10B, it is far behind SpaceX. This wasthe first successful landing of a large launch vehicle booster. It has yet to do the reuse ofa booster. SpaceX has been relaunching boosters for nearly ten years with its Falcon 9rocket. 165 launches were done last year, which also required a robust production line forsecond stages. To reach a high volume of launch, China will need to demonstrate relaunchcapabilities and move to high rate production. Most importantly, Long March 10 is only firststage reuse, whereas Starship is intended to be full reuse (not yet demonstrated). Full reuseenables an order of magnitude increase in launches, as we discussed in our initiation report,“Space Exploration Technologies Corporation: Doing Time in the Universal Mind - Initiate atOutperform; Target Price $239“. A key part of the Long March program is landing humans on the moon (offical target 2030),leading to an eventual lunar research station. SpaceX is a major part of NASA’s spaceprogram, which has a goal of a manned moon landing by the end of 2028. There is anemerging space race here, which will likely increase U.S. government support for SpaceX(along with others, such as Blue Origin and Boeing). As discussed in our SpaceX initiation, we see no real competition in the near-term for SpaceXon either launch capability or satellite operations. But, given China’s massive resources andlong-standing goals, China must be considered a serious competitor over the long-term.SpaceX is set to do its second Starship V3 launch on July 16, which is launch 13. Investment Implications We rate SpaceX Outperform, target price $239. DETAILS CHINA’S SUCCESSFUL LANDING - ON THE WAY TOWARD FIRST STAGE REUSE On July 10th, 2026, China successfully landed the first-stage booster from a Long March 10B rocket launch. Prior Chineselandings were unsuccessful (e.g., Long March 10A, Long March 12A). We see China as the leading competitor for SpaceX, aswe believe SpaceX sees them. This launch and recovery on Long March 10B comes earlier than we had originally expected byroughly six months. Chinese authorities expect another launch and landing later this year. Exhibit 1 shows the catch of the LongMarch 10B in a net structure. China is not close yet to SpaceX While this is an important step forward by the Chinese space launch program, SpaceX remains well ahead. The Long March 10has not yet demonstrated reuse. But, we expect that will come soon. That is the plan laid out by Chinese authorities. In principle,with continued success on landing and relaunch, China should be able to significantly increase the volume assets placed intoorbit. But, for now, the Long March 10 and other Chinese designs appear only to have first stage reuse. That means that a newsecond stage will need to be built for each launch, as is the case with Falcon 9. In order to raise volumes, China will need arobust production line. SpaceX has already done many booster landings with its Falcon 9 rocket, with some boosters having been relaunched morethan 20 times. Falcon 9 has been relaunching boosters for nearly ten years. Falcon 9 did 165 launches last year. This was alsofacilitated by the SpaceX production line in Hawthorne, which is unlike any other heavy launch production facility we haveseen. So, the Chinese program is far behind. But, we (and SpaceX) expect China to invest large amounts of resources into thisprogram, which does make it a true competitive threat over the long-term - and is reigniting the space race. Satellite competition China also intends to build its own large constellation of LEO communications satellites (ala Starlink). In filings with theInternational Telecommunications Union in December, China is seeking authorization for constellations totaling more than200,000 satellites. We expect it will take a long time before China is prepared to place t