花旗锂本周抛售行情解读

China Battery Materials Lithium into 2nd week of July – Our read to the sell off this week CITI’S TAKELithium price and equity names meltdown in the last two days, on (1) JXW resumption, and (2) potential proposal on LFP cathode capacity controlahead. Our read follows – (1) We expect CATL to give investors more colouron the JXW mine resumption, new battery capacity timeline, and full yearbattery output/shipment target in the upcoming results call of which theimpact to lithium fundamental we estimate to skew to the positive, (2) wesee immaterial impact from the potential capacity control proposal on LFPcathode ahead, as this echoes to our previous anti-involution call (seenote) and the timeline remains uncertain, and (3) we await more details onJXW resumption (i.e. scale, cost, and etc), but we believe market haspriced in most of the negative in the last few weeks. Jack Shang, CFAAC+852-2501-2441jack.shang@citi.com Anna Wang+852-2501-2739anna.d.wang@citi.com Jimmy Feng+852-2501-7588jimmy.feng@citi.com Weekly wrap-up:LithiumASPwas in the downtrend WoW during last week. Amongthat, Li2CO3 and LiOH ASP is quoted at Rmb158.5k/t and Rmb142.5k/t as of 9th Julyrespectively, vs Rmb162.5k/t and Rmb158.5k/t as of 2nd July.Production wise,China Li2CO3 production was -3% WoW at 24,855 tons last week. Among that,output from brine, lepidolite, spodumene, and recycle was +2%/-20%/-3%/+1%WoW respectively.Inventory wise, total inventory of Li2CO3 came in at 92,236 tonsthis week (-2% WoW / -2,338 tons WoW). Within that, inventory of downstreamplayers (mainly cathode makers), smelters, and others (mainly battery makers andtraders) were -2%, -9%, -8% WoW to 50,339 tons, 12,415 tons, and 29,482 tonsrespectively. Cynthia Wu+852-2868-7813cynthia.d.wu@citi.com Shreyas Madabushi+91-22-4277-5048shreyas.madabushi@citi.com © 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission.Source: Citi Research, SMM © 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission.Source: Citi Research, SMM © 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission.Source: Citi Research, SMM © 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission.Source: Citi Research, SMM CATL (3750.HK; HK$637.5; 1; 09 Jul 26; 16:10) Valuation We value CATL-H at HK$888/share, based on 28% premium, the historical H/A premium for CATL, on our A-share TP ofRmb603/sh. Our TP for the A-share is based on 17.5x 2026E EV/EBITDA, 0.25x SD above the stock’s historical average sincethe listing of the A-share. We opt for an EV/EBITDA approach as it eliminates changes in capital structure. Our target price forH share implies 34.3x 26E P/E and 8.7x 26E P/B. Risks Our Quant model rates the CATL-H stock High Risk for its short trading history, which we believe is unwarranted given thecompany’s established history as an operating company and given the A-share’s long history. Downside risks that could meanthe CATL-H shares fail to achieve our target price include: 1) lower-than-expected EV demand; 2) competition in the EV batterymarket turns fierce, resulting in a market share for CATL that is lower than our expectations; and 3) higher-than-expected rawmaterial costs. CATL (300750.SZ; Rmb375.5; 1; 09 Jul 26; 15:00) Valuation We value CATL-A at Rmb603/share based on 17.5x 2026E EV/EBITDA, 0.25xSD above the stock’s historical average sincelisting. We opt for an EV/EBITDA approach as it eliminates changes in capital structure. Our target price implies 26.8x 26E P/Eand 6.8x 26E P/B. Risks Downside risks that could mean the CATL-A shares fail to achieve our target price include: 1) lower-than-expected EV demand;2) competition in the EV battery market turns fierce, resulting in a market share for CATL that is lower than our expectations;and 3) higher-than-expected raw material costs. If you are visually impaired and would like to speak to a Citi representative regarding the detailsof the graphics in this document, please call USA 1-888-500-5008 (TTY: 711), from outside theUS +1-210-677-3788 Appendix A-1 ANALYST CERTIFICATION The research analysts primarily responsible for the preparation and content of this research report are either (i) designatedby “AC” in the author block or (ii) listed in bold alongside content which is attributable to that analyst. If multiple ACanalysts are designated in the author block, each analyst is certifying with respect to the entire research report other than(a) content attributable to another AC certifying analyst listed in bold alongside the content and (b) views expressed solelywith respect to a specific issuer which are attributable to another AC certifying analyst identified in the price charts orrating history tables for that issuer shown below. Each of these analysts certify, with respect to the sections of the reportfor which they are responsible: (1) that the views expressed therein accurately reflect their personal views about eachissuer an