GLP-1需求在独立日假期保持坚挺

GLP-1 Tracker: GLP-1 Demand Holds Firm During July 4 HolidayWeek (W/E July 3rd) Although holidays are typically associated with script volatility, GLP-1 volumes surprisinglybucked the typical seasonal July 4th downturn this week, with total scripts up +2.3% WoW,or +59k. It is too early to determine whether strength was driven by the July 1 Bridgeprogram, pre-holiday stock-up, or timing noise; next week’s channel-specific data shouldprovide more clarity. Foundayo TRx declined sequentially week-over-week, while WegovyPill increased; specifically, Foundayo saw 19,549 TRx in week 13, -282 WoW and -1.4%sequentially. Wegovy Pill saw 153k TRx this week, up +3.6k sequentially, or ~+2.4%. Giventhat our last tracker update was on Monday, this update does not include incremental NBRxdata. Courtney Breen+1 917 344 8407courtney.breen@bernsteinsg.com Woody Polglase+1 917 344 8314woody.polglase@bernsteinsg.com Louisa Qiu+1 917 344 8495louisa.qiu@bernsteinsg.com Per LLY IR, IQVIA capture rates for the Foundayo weekly data have improved, and stood at~90% in Q2; the equivalent rate for Zepbound is >90%. As a reminder - direct-to-consumeradvertising for Foundayo is still in its early innings, and we expect to see script inflection ascustomer/patient awareness increases over the months once full-blown advertising is in play.Finally, reimbursement of GLP-1s for obesity in Medicare began last week (1st Jul) throughthe GLP-1 Bridge program. We will be monitoring channel-level scripts (TRx/NBRx) in thecoming weeks to assess the impact. Specialist Sales Christian Moore+1 917 344 8555christian.moore@bernsteinsg.com Total scripts:Total weekly scripts were 2.66M, up vs last week (+2.27%, or +59k inabsolute terms). The 4-week YoY growth for sema+tirz was 35.5%, up from 35.1% lastweek. The company market share split on a TRx basis is now 61.0% Lilly (26.9% Zepbound,33.4% Mounjaro, 0.8% Foundayo) to 39.0% Novo (12.5% Wegovy pen, 20.4% Ozempic,6.0% Wegovy Pill). Zepbound:Zepbound market share remained broadly stable this week at 26.9% (+0.03pp vs last week). YoY growth on a 4-week average increased to 58% from 57%. AbsoluteZepbound prescriptions increased by +16k WoW. Mounjaro:This week Mounjaro posted 39.4% growth on a 4-week YoY basis, roughlyflat vs 39.7% last week. Market share increased to 33.4% from 32.9%, and absoluteprescriptions increased by +30k WoW. Semaglutide:Growth diverges significantly by indication and presentation. Wegovy Pillhad 153k TRx this week, up +3.6k sequentially, or ~+2.4%, and is now in week 26 oflaunch. Wegovy pen's 4-week average YoY growth was 37.1%, down from 40.8% lastweek, with absolute Wegovy pen prescriptions up +1k WoW. Ozempic continued to declineYoY at a 4-week average of -11.7%, versus -12.8% last week. Overall, semaglutide posted21.1% YoY growth, up from 20.7% last week. The NBRx data below remain as of the week ending June 26, reflecting the last update. New starts (NBRx):Total new starts for all GLP-1 brands remain high at 210k per week.NBRx for Foundayo now sits at 10.4k vs 38.2k for Wegovy Pill, with Foundayo havingdeclined sequentially since a peak of 12.6k in W/E 12th June.[Continued below] Holiday-related disruption has affected recent weeks, but we have also not seen therebound we would typically expect for an early-launch product. Wegovy Pill’s starter dose(1.5mg) NBRx’s look to be in decline (Exhibit 18). These are data points to watch, especiallyas broader DTC advertising and Medicare eligibility begin to take effect. Lilly's NBRx sharewas 53.5%, down from 54.4% last week. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We rate LLY Outperform with a price target of $1,300. DETAILS Q2E AND FY26E FOUNDAYO ESTIMATES Pricing dynamics will evolve in multiple dimensions - Cash pay patient pricing will likely increase on a blended basis, as patientsmove from lower to higher doses. Medicare will become a more dominant driver of market growth in H2, where all doses will bepriced at $249 once BRIDGE/BALANCE goes into effect & Commercial prices will also decline as payor coverage expands & isformalised across the three major PBMs by June 1st. Actual script data is still only available for the first thirteenth weeks of the Foundayo launch, inflections associated with fullsomepatient activation (including linear TV) as well as the BRIDGE/BALANCE program create meaningful uncertainty. Ex-USlaunches are currently only underway for those countries which reference the US regulation (e.g. UAE), while key early launchcountries (such as the UK) are likely to drive further Q4 revenue inflection outside the US. Source: IQVIA, Bernstein analysis EXHIBIT 5:Whilst previously tracking in-line withZepbound/Wegovy, recent data points show fewercontinuing patients on Foundayo as a % of total scripts.Something to continue to monitor as data can be patchy ORAL GLP-1 LAUNCH DYNAMICS Based on Lilly’s earnings commentary, we continue to view oral GLP-1s as market-expanding, and previously estimate