全球经济周刊：寻找备忘录

10 July 2026 Global Letter: Finding MemoThe escalation in the Middle East reignites volatility in oil prices at a timewhen underlying EconomicsGlobal US inflation continues to show signs of persistence, inflation expectations are ticking up,the labor market remains solid, financial conditions remain very accommodative, and thenew Fed's monetary policy framework is still in the making. Given the importance of oilprices and US financial conditions for the global economy, an escalation of tensions in theMiddle East could represent an underpriced risk. Given the wealth effect-drivenconsumption, a correction in equity markets could directly hit consumption dynamics. US: A “summer of fun” The World Cup continues to drive strong spending at restaurants and bars in the 11 UShost cities. However, the World Cup tailwind is starting to fade. It roughly correlates withthe number of games played per day, so it peaked around the end of the groupstage.Meanwhile, the“holiday bump”in BAC card spending around July 4 was similar this yearto the prior two years. This is true across both holiday-related services and goods.Bottom line: the consumer looks healthy, and that’s unlikely to change in coming months. Euroarea: Tracking German stimulus, slippage & reformTracking fiscal impulse: spending progress seems ok. Construction data shows effects, Claudio IrigoyenGlobal EconomistBofAS+1 646 855 1734claudio.irigoyen@bofa.com but monetary policy hits the breaks. Tracking fiscal slippage: the new2027 budget planraises net borrowing needs, again. Tracking reform next: the reform package is goodnews. But it is unlikely to unfold a growth spurt like the 2002-05 reforms. Antonio GabrielGlobal EconomistBofAS+1 646 743 5373antonio.gabriel@bofa.com UK: Volat-oil Recent escalation makes our call ofunchanged rates this year a closer call. On balance,we think energy prices would need to move higher sustainably for the BoE to act, butrisks of a hike are rising. We do a deep dive on the labour market, where lower effectiveslack and possible stalling of wage disinflation can imply restrictive rates for longer. Global Economics TeamBofASSee Team Page for List of Analysts Asia: India – Monsoon off to a weak start; Jul-Aug critical 2026 southwest monsoon has started on a weak footing, with rainfall 17% below normalas of early July. While inflation risks could rise if weak rainfall coincides with strongerdemand and higher commodity prices, July–August will be critical given their importanceto the monsoon outcome. Emerging EMEA: Hungary trip notes: EUR anchor firmOur Budapest visit leaves us constructive. EUR convergence is increasingly a credibility anchor, with ERM2 potentially becoming a self-reinforcing fiscal and market story. Latin America:DomRep – third time’s the charm Government approved a fiscal reform after two failed attempts (2020 and 2024). This ispositive for fiscal accounts and it could be a potential positive development for ratingsagencies. Higher revenues will help to compensate theincrease in subsidies this year. BofASecurities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its researchreports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 27 to 28. Global Letter Claudio IrigoyenBofAS Finding MemoThe recent escalation in the Middle East reignites volatility in oil prices at a time when underlying US inflation continues to show signs of persistence, inflation expectationsare ticking up, the labor market remains solid, financial conditions remain veryaccommodative, and the new Fed's monetary policy framework is still in the making. Given the importance of oil prices and US financial conditions for the global economy, anescalation of tensions in the Middle East represents an underpriced risk for asset pricesas positioning is becoming more stretched. The AI boom, combined with generalizedfiscal excesses, continues to put pressure on long-term real rates. Given the wealtheffect-driven consumption in many countries, a correction in equity markets coulddirectly hit consumption dynamics. Someone didn't receive the Memo In our recently published Mid-Year review report (seeMid-Year review: Hydration Break),we highlighted that the US-Iran deal was very fragile in nature. Even though the signedMemorandum of Understanding dissipated immediate risks from the war in Iran, the riskof escalation remained top of mind. Back then, we argued that not all parties may have the incentive to abide by thetentative deal, and reaching a final agreement in the next 60 days is all but certain. Andin the case of a subsequent escalation, the global economy would no longer have the oilinventories buffer as it had in February. We expect the situation in the Middle East toremain fluid as all the relevant actors