全球经济周刊：迷雾重重的战争

Global Economic WeeklyThe foggier war《全球经济周刊》：更加错综复杂的战争局势 27 March 2026EconomicsGlobal经济学全球版2026年3月27日 Global Letter: The foggier warThe war does not seem close to an end, withthe main parties apparently still far from全球视角：更加隐秘的战争 reaching a compromise. We think there will likely be an impact on the global economyeven if the war is over in a few weeks, as it will take time to normalize flows andproduction of energy products and derivatives. The world has become less oil dependentover time, but if the war escalates and becomes protracted, non-linear consequences of这场战争似乎远未结束，各主要当事方似乎还远远无法达成妥协。我们认为，即便战争在几周内结束，也势必会对全球经济产生影响。因为要恢复能源产品及其衍生品的正常生产和供应，需要一定的时间。随着时间的推移，世界对石油的依赖程度已经有所降低。但如果战争升级并持续下去，能源价格大幅上涨所带来的负面影响将会十分严重。因此，坚持下去才是经济复苏的关键。 US: Higher deficits are looking increasingly likelyDeficit risks are skewed to the upside owing to the IEEPA ruling and the rising costs of美国：出现更大财政赤字的可能性越来越大 the Iran war. Tariff refunds are likely to be a near-term hit, while any reduction in tariffrates and war-related spending is a longer-term risk. Collectively, these risks could pushdeficits well above 6% of GDP next year. A higher deficit trajectory could bring fiscalsustainability and the associated risks for long-end rates back into focus.由于《伊朗核协议》的相关规定，再加上伊朗战争带来的成本上升，财政赤字的风险呈上升趋势。短期内，关税返还措施可能会对财政造成负面影响；而关税率的降低以及与战争相关的开支削减则属于长期风险因素。总体而言，这些风险可能导致明年的财政赤字远远超过GDP的6%。如果财政赤字持续偏高，那么财政可持续性问题以及由此引发的长期利率风险就会再次成为人们关注的焦点。 Euro area: Framing the “fresh memory” argument欧元区：“新鲜记忆”论点的阐述 The 2022 energy shock is still fresh in everyone’s mind. This could imply strongerindirect and second-round effects on inflation. But the same argument matters for thesensitivity of the real economy, too. This risks non-linear growth responses.2022年的能源危机给人们的记忆依然历历在目。这可能会对通货膨胀产生更强烈的间接影响和连锁反应。不过，同样的道理也适用于实体经济的敏感度问题。这种情况下，经济可能会出现非线性的增长反应。 Claudio IrigoyenGlobal EconomistBofAS+1 646 855 1734claudio.irigoyen@bofa.comAntonio GabrielGlobal EconomistBofAS+1 646 743 5373antonio.gabriel@bofa.comGlobal Economics TeamBofASSee Team Page for List of Analysts克劳迪奥·伊里戈延，博富银行全球经济学家电话：+1 646 855 1734邮箱：claudio.irigoyen@bofa.com安东尼奥·加布里埃尔，博福斯银行全球经济学家电话：+1 646 743 5373邮箱：antonio.gabriel@bofa.com波士顿银行全球经济团队分析师名单请参见团队页面。 UK: What can it take for the BoE to hike?英国：英国央行要采取什么措施才会提高利率呢？ Bar for hikes is lower than thought before, but context is different from 2022. So hikes,if any, arelikely to be modest, unless oil rises sharply. Under current energy futures, riskof no 2026 cuts will rise, while insurance hikes mid-year (one/two) can’t be ruled out.此次的加息幅度比之前预想的要小，但当前的情况与2022年有所不同。因此，即便有加息的话，幅度也很可能不大，除非油价出现大幅上涨。根据目前的能源期货市场情况，2026年不进行降息的可能性有所增加；同时，也不能排除在年中时再次加息的可能性。 Asia: External balance tailwinds for energy exportersEnergy supply has tightened sharply over the past weeks. While much of Asia could face亚洲：外部环境有利，有助于能源出口国的发展 greater external balance pressures, energy exporters should see meaningful support,primarily via. terms-of-trade gains.过去几周，能源供应状况变得极为紧张。虽然亚洲大部分地区都将面临更大的外部平衡压力，但能源出口国则能得到一定程度的支持，主要体现在贸易条件的改善上。 Emerging EMEA: Oil exporters back and stronger than everWe expect major oil exporters Angola and Nigeria to be the largest beneficiaries of aprolonged oil shock. The region is better positioned to absorb the shock vs 2022: FXreserves are high and manygovernments rolled out fuel subsidies. Net oil importersZambia and Kenya remain the most vulnerable.我们预计，石油出口大国安哥拉和尼日利亚将成为长期石油危机中的最大受益者。与2022年相比，这些国家更有能力应对这场危机：它们的外汇储备充足，而且许多政府都出台了燃料补贴政策。而那些净石油进口国，如赞比亚和肯尼亚，则仍然最为脆弱。新兴的欧洲、中东和非洲地区：石油出口国再度崛起，实力比以往更加强大 Latin America:DomRep – slower than expected recovery拉丁美洲：多米尼加共和国——复苏进程比预期缓慢 The tourism sector recovery is positive news for growth.However, the rest of theeconomy is recovering at a slower pace. We cut our GDP growth forecast to 3% as therecovery will likely be sluggish this year. Opportunity for reforms is fading. DomRep ishighly exposed to the oil shock. Government has room to support the economy, theBCRD has less room to ease.旅游业的复苏对经济增长来说是个好消息。不过，其他经济领域的恢复速度则较为缓慢。我们将GDP增长率预期下调至3%，因为预计今年的经济复苏进程将会十分缓慢。进行改革的机遇也在逐渐减少。多米尼加共和国极易受到石油价格波动的影响。政府有办法来支持经济，而中央银行则很难再采取进一步的宽松政策了。 BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its researchreports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity ofthis report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 25 to 26.美国银行证券公司与其研究报告中所涉及的发行方有着业务往来，也希望继续与这些发行方保持业务关系。因此，投资者应当意识到，该公司可能存在利益冲突，而这可能会影响本报告的客观性。投资者在做出投资决策时，应将本报告视为众多参考因素中的一项而已。请参阅第25至26页上的重要说明。 Global Letter全球通讯 Claudio IrigoyenBofAS克劳迪奥·伊里戈延 Antonio GabrielBofAS安东尼奥·加布里埃尔 The foggier war更加模糊不清的战争局势 As the war moves towards the fifth week, the prospects do not look very promising. TheUS and Iran still appear too far apart to reach a compromise. The reported negotiationson the back of the deal the US put on the table this week are stuck, and escalation ismore likely than not.随着战争进入第五周，形势看起来并不明