全球经济周报：迷雾重重的战争

27 March 2026 Global Letter: The foggier warThe war does not seem close to an end, withthe main parties apparently still far from EconomicsGlobal reaching a compromise. We think there will likely be an impact on the global economyeven if the war is over in a few weeks, as it will take time to normalize flows andproduction of energy products and derivatives. The world has become less oil dependentover time, but if the war escalates and becomes protracted, non-linear consequences ofmuch higher energy prices could be significant. Persistence will be key for the economy. US: Higher deficits are looking increasingly likelyDeficit risks are skewed to the upside owing to the IEEPA ruling and the rising costs of the Iran war. Tariff refunds are likely to be a near-term hit, while any reduction in tariffrates and war-related spending is a longer-term risk. Collectively, these risks could pushdeficits well above 6% of GDP next year. A higher deficit trajectory could bring fiscalsustainability and the associated risks for long-end rates back into focus. Euro area: Framing the “fresh memory” argumentThe 2022 energy shock is still fresh in everyone’s mind. This could imply stronger indirect and second-round effects on inflation. But the same argument matters for thesensitivity of the real economy, too. This risks non-linear growth responses. Claudio IrigoyenGlobal EconomistBofAS+1 646 855 1734claudio.irigoyen@bofa.com UK: What can it take for the BoE to hike? Bar for hikes is lower than thought before, but context is different from 2022. So hikes,if any, arelikely to be modest, unless oil rises sharply. Under current energy futures, riskof no 2026 cuts will rise, while insurance hikes mid-year (one/two) can’t be ruled out. Antonio GabrielGlobal EconomistBofAS+1 646 743 5373antonio.gabriel@bofa.com Asia: External balance tailwinds for energy exporters Global Economics TeamBofASSee Team Page for List of Analysts Energy supply has tightened sharply over the past weeks. While much of Asia could facegreater external balance pressures, energy exporters should see meaningful support,primarily via. terms-of-trade gains. Emerging EMEA: Oil exporters back and stronger than everWe expect major oil exporters Angola and Nigeria to be the largest beneficiaries of aprolonged oil shock. The region is better positioned to absorb the shock vs 2022: FXreserves are high and manygovernments rolled out fuel subsidies. Net oil importersZambia and Kenya remain the most vulnerable. Latin America:DomRep – slower than expected recovery The tourism sector recovery is positive news for growth.However, the rest of theeconomy is recovering at a slower pace. We cut our GDP growth forecast to 3% as therecovery will likely be sluggish this year. Opportunity for reforms is fading. DomRep ishighly exposed to the oil shock. Government has room to support the economy, theBCRD has less room to ease. BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its researchreports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity ofthis report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 25 to 26. Global Letter Antonio GabrielBofAS Claudio IrigoyenBofAS The foggier warAs the war moves towards the fifth week, the prospects do not look very promising. The US and Iran still appear too far apart to reach a compromise. The reported negotiationson the back of the deal the US put on the table this week are stuck, and escalation ismore likely than not. With Brent back to $108 and rising risks of Houthi involvement, there will likely be animpact on the global economy. Even if the war is over in a few weeks, it will take time tonormalize flows and production of energy products and derivatives. The global economyhas become less oil dependent over time, but if the war escalates and becomesprotracted, non-linear consequences of much higher energy prices could be significant. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, the size and persistence of the shock iscritical to determine its impact and how much of the stagflationary shock will be felt asan inflation and/or a growth shock. The anatomy of an energy shock The world economy is less dependent on oil, but if anything has become way moresensitive to natural gas and fertilizers, which represent a major risk for Europe anddeveloping economies relative to the US. This is an important difference relative to pastoil shocks. Yes, the global economy is less sensitive to oil shocks, but it is not only aboutoil anymore. The Iran war is not an oil shock–it is an energy shock. As such, an energy shock has an impact on inflation and growth that fundamentallydepends on energy dependency, financial fragility, energy sensitivity and the persistenceof the shock. The same shock impacts more negatively on aggregate income for energy importing