全球经济周刊：春天来了

25 April 2025 Global Letter: Spring has sprungLast Monday, we updated our global economic forecasts taking stock of a larger-than- EconomicsGlobal expected uncertainty shock and tariff scenarios. Our revisions imply a downgrade toglobal growth of about 30bp in 2025 and 20bp in 2026, down to 2.8% in 2025, before amild recovery to 3.0% in 2026. United States: A tangled web: policy puts, tariff & taxesThe Trump put is alive and well. President Trump stated that he doesn’t plan to replace Chair Powell and made conciliatory statements on tariffs. The Fed put is notforthcoming. The Fed is taking a meeting-by-meeting approach. Moral hazard problemsaround fiscal policy disincentivize preemptive rate cuts. Surging tariff revenue could helpthe fiscal picture. But recent LA port data suggest that import volumes appear to becollapsing, so revenues could erode later this year. Euro Area: ECB review – the door is open Cut, dovish undertones. June forecasts could signal need for accommodation. Rates:market quickly interpreted the ECB's stance as dovish, we now see front-end risks asmore balanced. EUR: ECB cares more about it than the other way round. Claudio IrigoyenGlobal EconomistBofAS+1 646 855 1734claudio.irigoyen@bofa.com Asia: Indonesia – Domestic policies and macro resilience The sheer pace of domestic policy changes since new administration took office in Oct2024 has weighed on sentiment, but we think pessimism should fade as clarity emergesin 2H25. The government seems to be prioritizing fiscal pragmatism, and the outlook forthe next 1-2 years should be clearer after revised Budget 2025 (July). Antonio GabrielGlobal EconomistBofAS+1 646 743 5373antonio.gabriel@bofa.com Global Economics TeamBofASSee Team Page for List of Analysts Emerging EMEA: Shielded but not immune The lower direct trade links of the Emerging Europe, Middle East and Africa (EEMEA)region with the United States (US) versus other regions could help shield it from theworst of the trade wars. Indirect impacts through European Union (EU) trade links, Chinaor oil exposure however mean the region is not immune from the ongoing globalslowdown. Latin America: Eye on elections LatAm has a busy electoral calendar in the next two years with presidential elections inChile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Peru, and Brazil. In addition, voters in Argentina, Chile,Colombia, Peru, and Brazil will choose legislators and Mexicans will select members ofthe judiciary. Given the potential economic and market ramifications, we examine whatto expect in each country. BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its researchreports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 21 to 22. Global Letter Antonio GabrielGlobal EconomistBofASantonio.gabriel@bofa.com Claudio IrigoyenGlobal EconomistBofASclaudio.irigoyen@bofa.com Spring has sprungLast Monday, we updated our global economic forecasts taking stock of a larger-than- expected uncertainty shock and tariff scenarios (seeSurfing the tariff wave). Ourrevisions imply a downgrade to global growth of about 30bp in 2025 and 20bp in 2026,down to 2.8% in 2025, before a mild recovery to 3.0% in 2026. About 0.1pp of thedownward revisions are driven by the US, while the remainder is explained by the rest ofthe world, notably China, Japan and Emerging Markets, especially in Asia (Exhibit 1). We are less constructive than the IMF on the outlook for advanced economies On Tuesday, in turn, the IMF unveiled their latest World Economic Outlook, with headlineglobal growth forecasts that coincide with ours for 2025 and 2026. However, amongadvanced economies, we are not as constructive, with our developed economies growthaggregate 30bp below IMF projections (seeSpring awakening). We see more mild USyoy average growth at 1.5% in 2025 and 2026, vs their 1.8 and 1.7% estimates. We alsohave Japan narrowly avoiding a recession in 2025, while the IMF outlook is less bleak. But overall somewhat more constructive across EM On the other hand, our numbers are somewhat more constructive across emergingmarkets, with our emerging markets aggregate pointing to 3.9% and 4.2% growth in2025-2026, 20-30bp above IMF projections. However, we have similar projections forEmerging Asia and LatAm. Interestingly, our China forecasts are slightly more optimisticthan the WEO for 2026, but there is agreement that 5% growth will not be reached. Taking stock of the uncertainty and tariff shock Our revisions show a slowdown in the US concentrated in the second and third quarterof 2025, with still somewhat below-potential growth going forward. For the Euro area,our forecasts are cut by less than in the US, though from much lower levels. However,the German impulse provides some upside in the latter part of