快评：2Q26营收超指引上限

Edward Hou, CFA+852 2123 2623edward.hou@bernsteinsg.com Yipin Cai, CFA+852 2123 2669yipin.cai@bernsteinsg.com Price Target 4,380.00 TWD 2454.TT Quick Take: MediaTek 2Q26 revenue beat guidance high-end andconsensus MediaTek reported June sales at NT$58B this afternoon, up 22% MoM and 3% YoY. Total2Q26 revenue amounted to NT$152B, up 2% QoQ and 1% YoY. This is c. 5% aboveconsensus and c. 2% above guidance high-end. FX is likely to present a 1.3% tailwind andthus cannot fully explain the beat (Exhibit 1). We currently model MediaTek’s ASIC revenue to reach US$2B, US$15B and US$22B in2026-28, respectively. However, recent checks suggest a more favorable competitiveenvironment. Together with the expanding deployment of TPU, this suggests there is anupside risk to our current 2028 projection. We also continue to see signs of deepeningcollaboration between MediaTek and Google, which should support a growing share of walletover time. On the other hand, the smartphone business remains challenged. Our latest Chinasmartphone tracker (link) shows that high memory price is putting all price segments underpressure. ASP has climbed notably higher YoY due to OEMs price hikes and the reducedoffering of entry-level models. That however is leading demand destruction & elevatedhandset inventory that OEMs may struggle to sell. Moreover, MediaTek along with other ICdesign companies in Taiwan has been reported (link) to raise prices across multiple productlines, including smartphone SoC and PMIC, by 10-15% on component shortages, capacityconstraints, and rising raw material and logistics costs. While these pricing actions shouldhelp offset cost inflation and support margins, we expect further pressure on end-marketdemand in 2H26 and potentially into 2027. That said, we believe growth driven by TPU ismore than sufficient to offset the weakness of the smartphone business. MediaTek’s share price has corrected c.15% from its late-May peak, likely reflecting recentsentiment change & profit-taking post the strong YTD rally. We encourage investors to focuson the AI ASIC growth and reiterate Outperform on MediaTek. EXHIBIT 1:MediaTek’s 2Q26 revenue was NT$152B, c.5%above guidance mid-point and consensus. FX likelypresented a 1.3pts tailwind. INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We rate MediaTekOutperform. Our 1-year price target isNT$4,380.00. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURES References to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, SanfordC. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited,Sanford C. Bernstein Japan KK(サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社)and analysts employed by Société GénéraleAfrica Technologies & Services to produce Bernstein research under a Global Services Agreement in place between Bernsteinand Société Générale. Bernstein is part of a joint venture between Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB). Unless specifically notedotherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein’s “affiliates” relate to both SG and AB and their respectiveaffiliates. VALUATION METHODOLOGY MediaTek Inc We set a NT$4,380 1-year price target using a P/E multiple of 22x against our forward Q5-Q8 EPS estimate of NT$199. RISKS MediaTek Inc There are a number of downside risks to our MediaTek price target: (1) Stronger competitive pressure from Qualcomm in 5G market(2) Slower 5G adoption increase, especially in China (3) Weaker smartphone demand globally (4) Slower diversification beyondsmartphone (5) Downcycle in the broad semiconductor market RATINGS DEFINITIONS, BENCHMARKS AND DISTRIBUTION EQUITY RATINGS DEFINITIONS Bernstein brand The Bernstein brand rates stocks based on forecasts of relative performance for the next 12 months versus the S&P 500 forstocks listed on the U.S. and Canadian exchanges, versus the Bloomberg Europe Developed Markets Large and Mid Cap PriceReturn Index EUR (EDME) for stocks listed on the European exchanges and emerging markets exchanges outside of the AsiaPacific region, versus the Bloomberg Japan Large and Mid Cap Price Return Index USD (JPL) for stocks listed on the Japaneseexchanges, and versus the Bloomberg Asia ex-Japan Large and Mid Cap Price Return Index (ASIAX) for stocks listed on the Asian(ex-Japan) exchanges -unless otherwise specified. The Bernstein brand has three categories of ratings: •Outperform: Stock will outpace the market index by more than 15 pp•Market-Perform: Stock will perform in line with the market index to within +/-15 pp•Underperform: Stock will trail the performance of the market index by more than 15 pp Coverage Suspended: Coverage of a company under the Bernstein rese