全球存储科技：三星修正、强劲指标、长鑫存储IPO、华邦电子回升

Weekly theme: Samsung correction, strongindicator, CXMT IPO, Nanya Tech upturn Industry Overview 11 July 2026 Samsung share-price correction vs strong fundamentalsMany investors have askedwhy Samsung Electronics’share price corrected despite reporting (7 July) strong 2Q OP of W89.4tn. In our view, the bearish sentiment stemmedfrom following concerns: (1) Meta US–chip order cut; (2) CXMT China–large capacity;and (3) QoQ growth–no longer strong after 2Q peak. That said, we don’t see anydownturn signals–our weekly channel check still indicates strong memory chip demand(from US Big Tech), low impact of CXMT (no severe competition), and more favorable3Q ASP (many new quarterly contracts already reveal 20%+ price hike, in our view). Infact, we have slightly raised 3Q DRAM ASP assumptions in our global memory industrymodel (new: +21% QoQ vs old +17%); see Exhibit 15 for our new forecast summary. EquityGlobalTechnology Simon Woo, CFA>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Seoul)+82 2 3707 0554simon.woo@bofa.com Dai Shen>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)dai.shen@bofa.com Super-cycle reconfirmed by BofA memory indicatorOur memory indicator, which is based on YoY changesin spot price, global billings, Korea Vivek AryaResearch AnalystBofASvivek.arya@bofa.com exports, etc., remained at a record-high level, with May results at 183–far above 2017/2024 peaks (120-130; mid-cycle: 100; downturn: 80). DRAM/NAND global billings grewmore than 300% YoY in May, according to our analysis using WSTS’s data. We also notesolid June sales (Nanya Tech: +621% YoY; Phison +301% YoY), exports (Korea semis:+199%) and DRAM spot (+700%; even NAND shows +600% despite MoM drop). One ofthe most interesting point in Jun results was resumption of DRAM spot rally MoM (+11%on average vs -4%/+3% in Apr/May) but this is weaker than Korea’s semis exports(+21% MoM) that include more high-end memory (HBM4, SOCAMM, etc.) vs May level. Mikio Hirakawa>>Research AnalystBofAS Japanmikio.hirakawa@bofa.com Matt Shin>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Seoul)matt.shin2@bofa.com CXMT’s IPO share subscription date announced- 16 July Exhibit1:Globalmemoryoutlook-supercycle likely to continue through2027 despite 2026 quadruplingBofA global memory forecasts CXMT,China-based DRAM manufacturer, stated the firm’s IPO share subscription datewill be 16 July. Thus, actual listing can happen in late-July if the government regulationsare properly followed. CXMT has disclosed its 2Q26 sales guidance (CNY59-69bn;~US$9.5bn). This is 7x YoY growth but still only high-single-digit% of global DRAMmarket share despite large wafer capacity (high-200k wpm or 300k, according to mediareports; this accounts for mid-teen% of global total DRAM capacity). We still assumehigh-end DRAM (10Ghz+ LPDDR5, HBM, SOCAMM, GDDR7, etc.) will be supplied mostlyby ex-China memory chipmakers due to quality and US’s strict control (on China semis). Nanya Tech’s legacy DRAM more profitable vs HBM Nanya Tech reported very strong 2Q results (sales up 684% YoY; OP margin 74% vslarge loss or -43% a year ago). The key contributor was DRAM ASP rise (up 60%+ QoQ;500%+ YoY). Management’s guidance was also bullish for 3Q and even for the long term(shortage of legacy DRAM such as DDR3 & 4 continues, low impact of China memoryplayers’capacity expansion, etc). We also learned that Nanya Tech’s DRAM business ismore profitable than HBM. Since 2Q results were broadly in line with our already bullishforecasts, our EPS estimate changes (2026-28) are almost nil and, as such, PO (NT$660;9x 2027-28E P/E) is unchanged; maintain Buy on solid earnings and low multiples. See glossary at the end of this report ASP-driven memory super-cycle to continue Exhibit3:New record-high in Jun (NT$29.4bn; +6% MoM); more than5x higher than 2025-avg (NT$5.5bn)Nanya Tech–Monthly sales (Jun 2026) Exhibit4:Robust YoY growth continued in Jun (+621%); already 11consecutive months of triple-digit reboundNanya Tech–YoY monthly sales (Jun 2026) Exhibit5:Exceptionally strongASP hike in2Q (up >60% QoQ) evenafter robust 1Q (up >70%); we assume decelerating growth in 2H,but still strong at 23%/8% in 3Q/4Q, respectively; no downturn in2027 – just softening ASP QoQ (still super-cycle)Nanya Tech DRAM ASP trend–quarterly; 8Gb equiv. Exhibit6:We expect robust margins to continue in2H26-27(GM/OPM 70%+); record-high margins well-proved in 2Q (GM 79%,OPM 74%)Nanya Tech–Gross and OP margin trend Phison Electronics – YoY monthly sales (Jun 2026) Phison Electronics – Monthly sales (Jun 2026) Source:Company BofA Memory Indicator Exhibit10:Our memory indicatorstill near all-time highlevel in May (183) vs 186/189/189in Feb/Mar/Apr-26, driven by exceptionally strong DRAM/NAND spot pricing, rising ASPs andbillings, along with Korea’s 150%+ export growth.BofA Memory Indicator – back to upturn level since Oct-2025 and hit highest peak in Mar/Apr-26 (back-tested) Note: Our indicator had previously been capped at ~140, but the recent unprecedente