全球存储技术：每周主题——三星资本支出、现货价格、存储指标、CES、长鑫存储、LG电子

Weekly theme: Samsung capex, spot price,memory indicator, CES, CXMT, LGE Estimate Change Samsung’s capex for wafer capacity expansion disciplinedSamsung Electronics usually increases capex spend during memory upcycle. However, our check indicates very disciplined spend despiteupbeat 4Q25 OP. Three reasons: (1)price hike strategy to respond to supply shortage; (2) early stage of 1c nodeconventional DRAM and 300+ layers NAND (low interest in buying high-end equipmentfirst); and (3) HBM/eSSD capacity expansion on track at the expense of conventionalmemory; low bit growth continues. Korea’s supply chain companies also alluded toSamsung’s aggressive spend for infrastructure instead of WFE. DRAM spot price still rising strongly as of early JanDRAM spot price rally continued this week- up 10%+/- among DDR5 and DDR4 chips even after 100%+ in Nov-Dec. Of course, this is mostly based on speculative tradinginstead of actual demand but near-term spot sentiment remains broadly bullish amidsupply shortage concern. We also believe that Samsung is now raising 1Q26 DRAM ASPby 20%+ even after 40%+ hike in 4Q. BofA memory indicator resumed upcycle vs 1H25 Our memory indicator, which represents simply YoY change trend, posted near mid-cyclein 2Q-3Q25. However, Nov global billings and Dec spot/export data clearly show nearupcycle level (seeExhibit 9). This is consistent with upbeat 4Q memory results. CES takeaways We attended 2026 CES Las Vegas this week. Three positive takeaways:(1) more bullishsentiment for new GPUs/ASICs, including Rubin/Ultra; (2) more advanced autonomousdriving/robotics; and (3) many Chinese AI products but mostly based on Korea memory. CXMT’s filing indicates US$8bn salesin 2025CXMT disclosed its 2025 sales at ~US$8bn. This shows only ~5% of global DRAM market share vs bullish camp’s view on 10-15%. Customer names (mostly Chinahyperscalers and OEMs) and key products (low-power DDR4/5) were also disclosed butin-line. Overall, we see low impact on global DRAM. LG Electronics’s earnings look good We reiterate our Buyrating on LG Electronics with a PO of W130,000. Three reasons: (1)40%+ stock upside potential even with 1.0x 2026E P/B; (2) well-managed US tariffs; and(3) upcycle 2026 OP. 4Q preliminary OP (small loss) was mostly due to year-endrestructuring charges. In fact, 4Q home appliances and auto parts seem to havedelivered upbeat growth/margin due to strong position in the US. Our 2026 EPS revisionis +1%, based on slightly higher home appliances/auto parts sales. Exhibit2:CES 2026 marked the shift from “Generative AI” to “Physical AI”, where tech companies like NVIDIA, AMD, Intel, Qualcomm launched chipscapable of powering reasoning robots and autonomous vehicles; powerful memory chips and edge-AI consumer devices were also well-observedCES 2026 product announcements and key takeaways by companies Taiwan monthly sales broadly strong led by memory Exhibit3:Record-high results in Dec-25 (NT$12.0bn; +18% MoM);much higher than previous peak level of NT$8bnNanya Tech’s monthly salestrend Exhibit4:Up +445% YoY in Dec (exceptionally strong growth startedsince July along with significant DRAM spot price hike)Nanya Tech’s YoY monthly sales trend Exhibit5:All-timehigh in Dec-25 (NT$8.7bn; +24% MoM); higherthan previous peak level of NT$6bnPhison’smonthly sales trend Exhibit8:Overall solid YoY rebound seen across memory,foundry/logic, ODM, substrate namesTaiwan tech companies’YoY monthly sales trend in Dec-2025 Taiwan tech companies’MoM monthly sales trend in Dec-2025 BofA Memory Indicator Exhibit9: Our memory indicator showedastrong recovery in Nov(2025high of 118) vs Jan-Aug (within the range of 101-108), led by DRAM spot rally (+513% YoY), DRAM billings/ASP(+44%/+19% YoY), NAND billings (+20% YoY); meanwhile, Korea exports were exceptionallystrong (+39% YoY)BofA Memory Indicator–back to near upturn level inNov-2025 *The shaded area represents back-tested results from January 1991 to March 2021. The unshaded area represents actual performancesince April 2021. This performance is back-tested up to March-2021, and does not represent the actual performance of any account orfund. Back-tested performance depicts the theoretical (not actual) performance of a particular strategy over the time period indicated.No representation is being made that any actual portfolio is likely to have achieved returns similar to those shown herein.Disclaimer: The BofA Memory Indicator is intended to be an indicative metric only and may not be used for reference purposes or as ameasure of performance for any financial instrument or contract, or otherwise relied upon by third parties for any other purpose,without the prior written consent of BofA Global Research. This indicator was not created to act as a benchmark. For methodology, seethe5 Aug 2024 Global Memory Techreport.BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH Exhibit10:Dec/early-Janstock rebound primarily led bySamsung (upbeat 4Q results, highoptimism on HBM4 upside, relatively h