霍尼韦尔：航空业务分拆后的模型更新分析

+1 917 344 8543varun.govindaraj@bernsteinsg.comSpecialist Sales Steve Song +1 917 344 8401steve.song@bernsteinsg.com @HON Honeywell Technologies: Model update to account for Aerospacespin guidancefor the RemainCo.along with somemechanical changes (e.g.,areverse stock split) reflectvaluation of the remainco.ex-Aerosapce,different share count, andthevalue oftheirstake in Quantinuum. We use a 20x NTM+1P/Emultiple to value Honeywell and an NTM+1 EPS of $10.19.OurEPSnumbershavechangedtoaccountfornewbelowthelineThemultipleremainsunchangedfromourpreviousmodel.Thisimpliesabasevaluationof$2O4pershare.Wethen add~$39pershareto accountfortheirstake in Quantinuum, This is based on atargetprice of $94 (see Bernstein's initiation on QNT here) and a Honeywell ownership stake of~50%.Adding them together, this gives us a 12-monthtarget price of $243. We share our reflections of their investor day here and offer a broaderthesis on theHoneywell RemainCo. here. InvestmentImplications We rate Honeywell Market-Perform with a $243 target price. VALUATIONFRAMEWORK (RemainCo.) O-Outperform, M - Market-Perform, U - Underperform, NR-Not Rated, CS - Coverage Suspended Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis. References to"Bernstein" or theFirm" in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC (April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024onwards),SanfordC.Bernstein(HongKong)Limited盛博香港有限公司，SanfordC.Bernstein(Canada)Limited,SanfordAfrica Technologies &Services to produce Bernstein research under a Global Services Agreement inplace between BernsteinandSocieteGeneraleBernstein is partof a joint venture betweenSociete Generale (SG)and AllianceBernstein,L.P.(AB).Unless specifically noted otherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein's“affiliates"relate to both SG and AB and their respectiveaffiliates. We value Honeywell (including the Aerospace business) at 20x NTM + 1 EPS (estimated at $10.19) giving us a target pricefor thean overall $243target price. RISKS Honeywell International Inc Upside:(i) Continued growth in Building Automation,Positive uptakeof Forge product reflecting inmorerecurring revenue,Margin Downside:(i)Powerprices staystableordeclineassupplycomesonline(reducing impetusforbuildingautomation),(i)Weakness/ RATINGSDEFINITIONS,BENCHMARKSANDDISTRIBUTION EQUITYRATINGSDEFINITIONS Bernstein brand The Bernstein brand rates stocks based on forecasts of relative performance for the next 12 months versus the S&P 500 forstocks listed on the U.S.and Canadian exchanges, versus the Bloomberg Europe Developed Markets Large and Mid Cap PriceReturn Index EUR (EDME) for stocks listed on the European exchanges and emerging markets exchanges outside of the AsiaPacific region, versus the Bloomberg Japan Large and Mid CapPrice Return Index USD (JPL)for stocks listed on the Japanese(ex-Japan)exchanges-unless otherwise specified. The Bernstein brand hasthree categories of ratings: :Outperform:Stockwill outpacethemarket indexbymorethan15pp : Market-Perform: Stock will perform in line with the market index to within +/-15 pp :Underperform: Stock willtrail the performance of the market indexbymore than 15 pp predicted,atthe presenttime.The covering analystmay continue to publishresearchreports onthecompanytoupdateinvestorsonevents and developments. Bernsteinbrand stockratingsarebased ona 12-month timehorizon. Autonomousbrand-commonstocks The Autonomous brand rates common stocks as indicated below.As our benchmarks weuse the Bloomberg Europe 6oo (EDMFI)indexfordevelopedEuropeanbanksandPayments,theBloombergEurope6OOInsurancePriceReturnIndex(E6OOIN)forEuropean insurers,theS&P5OOandS&PFinancialsforUSbanksandPaymentscoverage,S5LIFEforUSInsurance,theS&PInsurance Select Industry (SPSlINS) for US Non-Life Insurers coverage, and the Bloomberg Emerging Markets Financials Large,Mid and Small CapPrice Return Index (EMLSF)for emerging marketbanks and insurersand Payments.Ratings are stated relativeto the sector (not the market). Not Rated:A rating assigned when the stock cannot be accurately valued, or theperformance of the company accuratelyonevents and developments. Those denoted as‘Feature'(e.g., Feature Outperform FOP, Feature Under OutperformFUP)are our core ideas. Not Covered (NC) denotes companies that are not under coverage. Autonomousbrandcommonstock ratingsarebasedona12-monthtimehorizon. Autonomous brand-preferred stocks The Autonomous brand has three categories of preferred stockratings: :Outperform(OP):Thetotal return of thepreferred instrumentisexpectedtooutperformpreferredsecuritiesof otherissuersoperating in similar sectors or rating categories over the next six months.:Neutral (N): Thetotal return of the preferred instrumentis expected to perform in line with preferred securities of otherissuersoperating in similar sectors or rating categories o