降价成交好转，关注出口兑现

市场要闻与重要数据 尿素市场：尿素主力收盘1735元/吨（+7）；河南小颗粒市场价1780元/吨（+0）；山东小颗粒市场价1770元/吨（-10）；江苏小颗粒市场价1810元/吨（-10）；小块无烟煤1100元/吨（+0）；山东尿素基差35元/吨（-17）；河南尿素基差45元/吨（-7）；江苏尿素基差75元/吨（-17）；尿素生产利润-5.0元/吨（-10.0）；出口利润633.4元/吨（+13.7）。 供应端：截至2026-07-12，企业产能利用率90.39%（+0.37%）；企业厂内库存为123.6万吨（+3.6）；港口库存为18.0万吨（+2.7）。 需求端：截至2026-07-12，复合肥产能利用率29.80%（-1.96%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为60.63%（+3.0%）；尿素企业预收订单天数5.06日（-0.2）。 市场分析 尿素新单成交放缓，但随着部分厂家降价吸单，成交好转，农需与局部出口订单采购持续进行中。出口政策灵活调整仍被关注，关注后续动态。国内供应端，尿素开工小幅提升，同比高位。需求端，农业追肥局部跟进，农需有支撑；复合肥开工小幅下降，苏皖地区季节性走弱，山东河南部分转产小麦肥，整体负荷下降；三聚氰胺开工小幅提升，终端进入消费淡季，对原料尿素维持刚需采购。当前出口采购订单进行中，雨水天气较多，农需用量有所增加，厂内库存本周累库但速度放缓，港口库存因出口订单陆续集港小幅累库。原料成本仍有抬升预期。当前出口利润仍在，预计出口窗口期内备货叠加夏季用肥需求，将对尿素价格形成支撑，后市关注出口预期兑现情况及下游采购节奏。 策略单边：震荡跨期：UR09-01逢低正套跨品种：无 风险出口政策变动、下游采购情绪 目录 一、价格与价差.........................................................................................................................................3二、上游供应............................................................................................................................................5三、下游需求............................................................................................................................................6四、尿素库存............................................................................................................................................7 图表 图1：尿素小颗粒山东市场主流价............................................................................................................................................3图2：尿素小颗粒河南市场主流价............................................................................................................................................3图3：尿素主力合约价格走势....................................................................................................................................................3图4：尿素01合约价格走势........................................................................................................................................................3图5：尿素05合约价格走势........................................................................................................................................................3图6：尿素09合约价格走势........................................................................................................................................................3图7：1-5价差...............................................................................................................................................................................4图8：5-9价差...............................................................................................................................................................................4图9：9-1价差...............................................................................................................................................................................4图10：尿素山东主连基差..........................................................................................................................................................4图11：尿素河南主连基差..........................................................................................................................................................4图12：尿素江苏主连基差..........................................................................................................................................................4图13：尿素周度产量..................................................................................................................................................................5图14：尿素产能利用率..............................................................................................................................................................5图15：尿素气制开工率..............................................................................................................................................................5图16：尿素煤制开工率..............................................................................................................................................................5图17：尿素生产成本..................................................................................................................................................................5图18：尿素生产利润..................................................................................................................................................................5图19：复合肥开工率..................................................................................................................................................................6图20：三聚氰胺开工率..............................................................................................................................................................6图21：尿素待发订单天数..........................................................................................................................................................6图22：中国小颗粒FOB..................................................................................................