创科实业（0669.HK）：基于2026年上半年良好业绩预期开启30天看涨期权

Techtronic (0669.HK) Opening 30D CW on Expectation of Good 1H26 Results CITI'S TAKE We open a 30D upside CW given:1)Anticipation of good 1H26 results,due4 Aug,on lower US tariffs,2)Continued share repurchase program with abudget up to US$500m for 18mths from Jun 2026 vs only US$33mpurchased so far (seeFig 2). We project 1H26 earnings growth of ~12% yoyto US$702m backed by modest rev growth of 2% yoy to US$7.99bn. TTIshould paint a margin expansion story this year of more than top-linegrowth driven by:1)Reduction of US tariffs from 20% to ~10% for Vietnamsince end-Feb,2)Absence of loss of HART operation starting from this year,3)Continued efficiency gain from unmanned production and streamliningSG&A cost to rev ratio.Our EPS forecasts are 1-6% higher than VAconsensus across 2026-28E.TTI is our top-pick in China Industrials. nBuy Key highlight of 1H26 results preview—Fig 1exhibits our forecast for 1H26results. The top-line growth should be modest at 2% in our model for 1H26, in viewof a high base in last year for front-loaded sales of MWK products, prior to upgradingthe ERP system. Despite the tariff reduction since end-Feb, we find the industry’sincline is to keep the price unchanged rather than reduce prices. This is likely due tohealthy growth of POS for the power tools industry. As such, we see an upcomingchannel restocking. In addition, the consumer segment (like floor care equipmentexcl Ryobi tools) remains soft with decline of over 20%. On the other hand, GMshould expand by 90bp to 41.1% during 1H26 (versus 50bp expansion in the past)given the margin pressure on the start of reciprocal tariff in Apr 2025 and tariffreduction starting from end-Feb 2026.This is on top of sustainable sales mixupgrade with DD rev growth of MWK (prof segment) against flat Ryobi coupled withfloor care equipment sales decline (the lowest GM segment). EBIT margin story outweighs rev growth this year—We model EBIT margin toexpand by 90bp to 9.7% in 2026E from 8.8% in 2025. Recall the EBIT margin wouldhave been 9.2-9.3% in 2025 after stripping out the loss of HART business (wasdisposed in end-2025) – that loss accounted for ~0.5% of sales last year. As such,we see the organic business driving 40-50bp expansion in EBIT margin to 9.7% in2026E. We believe this will be partly driven by1)Tariff reduction from 20% to 10% inVietnam – accounting for more than half of total output for the US(......continuedbelow) Eric LauAC+852-2501-2726eric.h.lau@citi.com Alice Cai+852-2501-2704alice.cai@citi.com Andy Li+852-2501-2597andy.li@citi.com 2)Continued decline in OPEX-to-sales ratio to 32.3% from 32.5% over the samehorizon,3)GM expansion by 70bp to 41.9% due to better mix towards MWK(carrying higher GM) growth at 10-11% this year against overall rev growth ofMSD. AIDC growth prospects in teens % in near term– AIDC build (including AIdatacenter construction along with power supply for AI-infra related etc.)accounted for ~15% of MWK sales or ~10% of group sales last year. We estimate thegrowth pace currently in teens % pa, rather than more substantive growth, due tothe re-usage of tools for building AIDC, along with shortage of constructionworkers and a slower buildout. Likely IEEPA tariff refund from 3Q26– We expect IEEPA tariff will be refundedfrom 3Q26 which is excluded from our model currently. Although this is a one-offitem, it should further improve cashflow. Uptrend in profitability from automation- This should enable TTI to furtherimprove its profitability metrics such as EBIT margin and revenue & net profit peremployee, in our view.Fig 3shows rev per employee increased from US$245.6k in2015 to US$315.8k in 2025, implying aCAGR of 2.5%.Fig 4shows net profit peremployee witnessed the same trend increasing from US$17.3k in 2015 to US$24.8kin 2025 implying aCAGR of 3.7%. We believe TTI is positioned to be a leader inadopting unmanned production within the global power tools industry. Thisshould speed up its pace of further market share wins over SWK and Makita. TTIhas been the global No 1 power tools player since 2024. SeeFig 5. © 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission.Source: Citi Research, Company Reports © 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission.Source: Citi Research, Company Reports, Statista, FMI, Global Newswire, Euromonitor Adding Upside 30-Day Catalyst Watch on Techtronic (0669.HK) UpsideWithin 30 DaysEarnings Direction: Duration:Catalyst: We open a 30D upside CW given: 1) Anticipation of good 1H26 results on lower US tariffs, and 2) Continued sharerepurchase program with a budget up to US$500m for 18mths from Jun 2026 vs only US$33m purchased so far Techtronic Company description Founded in 1985 as an OEM, Techtronic has become a global leader in thedesign, manufacture, and sale of home-improvement products. Its mainbusinesses are power tools, outdoor power equipment, and floor-careappliances. It has well-established and fast-growing br