汽车行业：经销商预览：Penske为二季报首选

Dealer Preview: Penske top pick into 2Qearnings Price Objective Change 09 July 2026 2Q revisions reflect lower P&S but stable GPUs Ahead of 2Q results for the publicly tradeddealers we are tweaking estimates to reflectlower same-store used units and LSD% Parts & Services (P&S) growth, offset by stableGPUs and better SG&A leverage sequentially following weather disruption in 1Q. Wemodel same-store new unit sales of -2.3% YoY on avg., mostly unchanged from our priorestimate and below Wards industry retail of +0.8% YoY. Dealer commentary generallypointed to April as the softest month from a tough comp from pre-buying ahead ofperceived price increases last year, while May and June improved while also highlightingvariation across states, including Texas softness for GPI (32% of new unit sales). Onused, we lower same-store units to -2.3% YoY on avg., reflecting constrained supplyespecially in value autos before off-lease supply builds in 3Q/4Q. We also lower same-store P&S revenue growth to LSD%, with revisions at GPI, ABG, AN, and PAG, as thegroup laps tougher warranty/collision comparables and fewer recall tailwinds versus lastyear. The U.K. market improved again in 2Q, with new unit sales +14.7%, which is asequential acceleration from +5.9% in 1Q, and should support results at PAG, LAD, andGPI. We raise our POs for LAD, PAG, SAH, and OPLN to reflect higher peer multiples. EquityGlobalAutos/Car Manufacturers Alexander PerryResearch AnalystBofAS+1 646 855 1365aperry3@bofa.com Jack Joyce, CFAResearch AnalystBofAS+1 646 556 2798jack.joyce@bofa.com 3Q outlook: SAAR resilient, but lapping tough EV compareWe model group same-store new units roughly flat on average in 3Q (lapping a MSD%avg. comp) before improving to LSD% growth in 4Q, as SAAR remains resilient, furthersupported from a 16% decline in retail gas prices since peak on 5/11, but comps remaindifficult following the EV-pull forward last year (BEV units increased 30% in 3Q25). Penske top pick into earnings, Asbury cautious on TekionWe are highlighting Penske as a top pick into earnings giveneasier new unit comps, improving trends in the UK, stable trends in parts & services, and likelihood foracceleration in commercial trucks in 2H. The biggest incremental positive is commercialtrucks, where we think the order book has taken a positive turn and 2H should be muchstronger, supported by improving freight rates, regulatory clarity around emissions-related price increases, and enforcement actions that reduced excess industry capacity.For ABG, Tekion transition appears to be creating near-term drag in P&S, giventechnician slowdown, and a 4-6 month period for stores to normalize after conversion. BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its researchreports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity ofthis report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 14 to 17. Analyst Certification on page 13. PriceObjective Basis/Risk on page 11.12992316 Group 1 Automotive We are lowering our 2Q EPS estimates by ~1% to $10.87 ahead of 2Q earnings as wefactor in pockets of demand weakness across GPI’s U.S. footprint and tougher P&Scomparables. We think Texas, which represents 32% of FY25 revenue and typicallybenefits from higher, did not experience the historical demand pickup associated withhigher gas prices, while GPI’s truck-heavy footprint may have also faced pressurefollowing the increase in gas prices. We also lower used unit expectations as usedvolume remains tied to new vehicle activity through trade-in flow, with sourcing stilltight for lower-mileage, higher-quality vehicles. P&S expectations also move lower as GPI laps a difficult 2Q comp, including +26%warranty growth last year and fewer collision stores as the company continues torationalize its portfolio. Offsetting factors include stable new/used GPUs, GPI’s outsizedToyota/Lexus exposure, which continues to benefit from tight supply and solid pricing,and an ~$8mm 2Q benefit from the company’s US cost reduction program. We revise our 2Q estimates to reflect 1) lower same-store new/used units on weakerfootprint demand and constrained used supply, 2) lower P&S same-store sales on toughwarranty/collision comps, and 3) stable GPU performance and SG&A savings. Exhibit3:We revise our estimates for 2Q26/2026 to account for weaker demand and P&SrevenueBofAe: New versus prior Average y/y same-store sales growth over last 14 quarters Exhibit5:We expect new vehicle GPUs to step down slightlysequentiallyGPI quarterly new vehicle GPU Lithia Motors We are lowering our 2Q EPS estimate by ~7% to $8.50 ahead of 2Q earnings as weexpect softer new and used unit volumes. LAD faces a tough YoY comp, with new unitspressured by last year’s perceived tariff-related pull-forward and used units also downmodestly after benefiti