2026年安联贸易全球调查报告：出口商如何适应地缘政治冲击

Allianz Trade Global Survey 2026 Business as unusualHow exporters adapt to geopolitical shocks Content Page 3-5Executive Summary Page 6-9A new layer of shocks in an already fragile environment Page 10-13Paying the price in payment terms Page 14-19The consequences of a year of US tariffs Page 20-23 The consensus that broke: sustainability in a globallyfragmented world Page 24-25 AI adoption among exporters: a two-speedrevolution? Page 26-28 ExecutiveSummary Early signs of disruption.The Middle East conflict has added a new layer ofshocks to an already fragile environment shaped by tariffs, weakening demandand declining consumer confidence. We expect lower global GDP growth (+2.6%in 2026), higher global inflation (4.3% in 2026) and stronger fiscal pressure, withhigher energy and input costs and weak demand adding to the pressure of 10.5%effective US tariffs on companies’ margins. Even in the best-case scenario, apost-ceasefire recovery in the Strait of Hormuz would take time (reaching 15-30%of normal levels). Against this backdrop, for the 5th edition of the Allianz TradeGlobal Survey, we asked 6,000 companies in Brazil, China, France, Germany, India,Italy, Poland, Singapore, Spain, the UAE, the UK, the US and Vietnam about theiroutlook for 2026, before and after the outbreak of war. Ludovic Subran Chief Investment Officer & Chief Economistludovic.subran@allianz.com Ana BoataHead of Economic Researchana.boata@allianz-trade.com •Export confidencehas held up better than during the 2025 tariff shock- dropping only 6pps to 75% of exporters still expecting positive growth -compared to the 40pps collapse after "Liberation Day." However, the impactis uneven: Vietnamese, American and Spanish firms lost more than 10ppsof confidence, while Chinese firms, already weakened by the trade war, lost9pps to 51%. Ano KuhanathanHead of Corporate Researchano.kuhanathan@allianz-trade.com •Logistics and energyare the most immediate concerns. 60% of firms areworried about supply-chain disruption and rising energy and commodityprices. In the wake of the war Iran, countries are faced with differentchallenges. Some are highly exposed and with low buffers (e.g. Vietnam,Thailand etc.), others are exposed but have buffers through reserves,alternative suppliers etc. (e.g. European countries, China etc.). Against thisbackdrop, Vietnamese (79%), Polish (76%), British (72%) and American (71%)firms show high levels of concern. In contrast, Indian and Chinese firmsappear relatively less worried. Lluis Dalmau TaulesEconomist for Africa & Middle Eastlluis.dalmau@allianz-trade.com Maxime Darmet CucchiariniSenior Economist for UK, US & Francemaxime.darmet@allianz-trade.com •Operational adjustments have accelerated.Over half of companies arenow seeking alternative shipping routes or carriers – especially in Vietnam(60%), the US and India (55% each). Many are also working with customsbrokers to expedite clearance (Vietnam 64%, India 56%) or adjusting deliveryschedules. These operational responses are moving faster than contractualchanges. Jasmin GröschlSenior Economist for Europejasmin.groeschl@allianz.com •Trade finance conditions are tightening.The share of firms expectingpayment terms to deteriorate has rebounded to 43% (+5pps since theconflict began), with the sharpest rises in Brazil (+18pps), the UAE (+10pps),India and Vietnam (+9pps each). Non-payment risk fears have risen to40% of firms (+6pps vs. pre-conflict), with the most exposed sectors beingpharmaceuticals, construction, and computers/telecoms. Maria LatorreSector Advisor, B2Bmaria.latorre@allianz-trade.com •Reshoring dynamics have shifted.The conflict has accelerated reshoringintent, particularly in Europe – Poland, the UK and France lead this shift –while US and Vietnamese firms moved in the opposite direction. The UAEshows a bifurcated response, reflecting its dual role as both a logistics huband a geography directly exposed to the crisis. Maxime LemerleLead Advisor, Insolvency Researchmaxime.lemerle@allianz-trade.com •AI optimism has taken a hit.The share of firms expecting AI to drive exportgrowth of +10% fell 8pps post-conflict, from ~30% before the war. Beyond the conflict, global trade has changed for good. We identify seven lessonsfrom this year’s survey: Garance TallonEconomist for Asia-Pacificgarance.tallon1@allianz-trade.com 1. Risk landscape: Geopolitics now dominates The risk hierarchy has been reshuffled since 2025. Geopolitical and politicalrisk - wars, tariffs, expropriation, social unrest – now tops the list for 65% of firms(+11pps), displacing supply-chain complexity, which fell to third place (45%,-30pps). Supply-related risks – supplier bankruptcies and input shortages – surgedto second place (57%, +30pps), consistent with record-high global insolvenciesrunning 24% above their pre-pandemic average. The economic cost of supply-chain complexity reached USD4.7trn in 2025, more than double its 2017 level, with56% linked to US trade flows