2025年安联贸易全球调查报告：贸易战、贸易协议及其对企业的影响

Allianz Trade Global Survey 2025 Trade war, trade dealsand their impacts on companies Content Page 3-5Executive Summary Page 6-8 Unpredictable trade policies dent exporters’confidence Page 9- 10More than half of exporters expect longerpayment terms in 2025 Page 11-15 Coping mechanisms: frontloading, rerouting,passing on higher costs and diversifying Page 16-17 US-China derisking is likely to continue, despite the90-day trade deal Page 18- 21 The trade war is creating opportunisticfriendshoring: the Europe-Asia rapprochement Page 22-25 Can the Latin American exception hold? Page 26-27Appendix ExecutiveSummary •The unpredictability of US trade policy has dented exporters’ confidence: 42%of exporting companies now anticipate turnover to decline between -2% and-10% over the next 12 months – compared to fewer than 5% before “LiberationDay”.Conducted across approximately 4,500 companies in China, France,Germany, Italy, Poland, Singapore, Spain, the UK and the US in two waves overMarch and April 2025, the Allianz Trade Global Survey reveals that close to 60%of firms expect a negative impact from the full-fledged trade war initiated by theTrump administration on 2 April, also called “Liberation Day”. Less than half ofcompanies expect positive export growth, compared to 80% before “LiberationDay”. Production could also be hit, with 27% of firms saying that they could stopproduction temporarily as FX volatility exacerbates the cost of higher tariffs, and32% intend to stop imports or offshore production to avoid delays or increasedcosts. In terms of investment outlook, companies are increasingly focusing onoperational efficiency and cost-cutting, with 45% of German firms prioritizingthese measures post “Liberation Day”. Conversely, 77% of Chinese firms arelooking to diversify into new business lines and increasing capital expendituresin strategic areas. Even with the advent of bilateral trade deals in recent weeks,some of the relief could prove temporary and it is definitely the volatility andscale of changes that will push companies to diversify further, as they alreadyhave since President Trump’s first term in 2017. Ana BoataHead of Economic Researchana.boata@allianz-trade.com Jasmin GröschlSenior Economist for Europejasmin.grosch@allianz.com Françoise HuangSenior Economist for Asia Pacificfrancoise.huang@allianz-trade.com •More than half of exporters anticipate longer payment terms, with delaysto exceed seven days in half of the cases.Only 11% of export companiescontinue to be paid within 30 days, but this figure is notably lower among topexporters like the US, China and Germany. Approximately 70% of companiesreceive payments between 30 and 70 days, with the UK (75%), France (73%),Italy (73%) and the US (73%) slightly more numerous than peers. Sectorssuch as retail, computers and telecom, construction and automotive reportpayment terms below 50 days on average, while transport equipment, energy,electricity, metals, paper and agrifood experience longer terms (above 50days on average). Larger firms tend to experience longer payment delays, with26% of surveyed companies having a turnover above EUR5bn facing paymentterms exceeding 70 days, compared to 18% for the overall sample average. Thetrade war has hit expectations in payment terms: After “Liberation Day”, 24%of exporters anticipate longer payment terms to exceed seven days, a surge of+13pps, with exporters in Italy and Poland particularly concerned (+23pps and+26pps, respectively). Overall, this deterioration affects over half of exporters,especially smaller firms and key sectors like wholesale, retail, agriculture andmanufacturing. In this context, payment terms are likely to be even less of anoption when it comes to financing activities: already before “Liberation Day”,only 14% of firms chose payment terms as their top source of finance, with cashflows (21%) and bank loans (18%) being preferred. Additionally, nearly half ofexporters (48%) anticipate increased non-payment risk, especially in the US(+21pps), Italy (+13pps), and the UK (+24pps), with expectations rising notablypost “Liberation Day”. Ano KuhanathanHead of Corporate Researchano.kuhanathan@allianz-trade.com Maxime LemerleLead Advisor, Insolvency Researchmaxime.lemerle@allianz-trade.com Lluis DalmauEconomist for Africa & Middle Eastlluis.dalmau@allianz-trade.com •Even though the new trade deal brings the US average import tariff rateon China to 39%, down from an eye-watering 103%, this is still much higherthan the 13% applied before the second Trump administration.As a result, USfirms will likely continue to frontload imports as a strategic response, alongsidererouting shipments. Before tariffs kicked in, 79% of American companies racedto frontload shipments from China, with a proactive 25% having started beforethe November 2024 election, especially in sectors such as agriculture, machineryand metals, while those in agrifood and computers dragged their feet. After“Liberation D