半年度策略报告：等待需求归来

2026年7月9日 等待需求归来 观点摘要： [table_research]分析师：王江楠从业资格证号：F03108382投资咨询证号：Z0021543 宏源期货研究所TEL：010-82295006Email：wangjiangnan@swhysc.com 聚酯产业链从上半年地缘风险溢价主导，转向供需基本面、产能投放节奏和利润再分配的三重驱动。 PX方面，基本面格局向好。PX与原油高度联动，海峡局势缓解后将跟随油价下跌。但PX基本面依然强劲，当前国内开工率已低于80%，进口减少，供应偏紧；且2026年无新增产能，供需平衡逐步打破，未来几年或现供给缺口。调油逻辑强度虽弱于2022年，但PX-MX价差开始收缩显示调油流向萌芽，对PX形成托底。Q3亚洲PX装置仍处于检修季（盛虹石化、福海创等大型装置检修），供应维持偏紧，PXN价差有望维持中高位。Q4随着新装置投产预期升温、检修装置回归，PX供应边际转松，PXN价差将高位回落，利润向下游PTA让渡。 PTA方面，加工费将维持高位。2026年是PTA行业自2020年以来首次全年无新增产能的年份，这是最值得关注的利多支撑。国内PTA长停产能已超千万吨，有效供给弹性有限。PTA当前开工处于五年同期低位，检修量处于历史高位，社会库存显性化预估两个月内可消化完毕。下游聚酯需求年增速预计约为3-5%，整体基本面格局向好。短期受下游聚酯降负压制，中长期将迎来下游补库拐点，上方空间取决于终端订单恢复的节奏。下半年PTA加工费有望在PX让利和供需改善的双重驱动下进一步修复，成为产业链中利润弹性最大的环节。 MEG方面，回升空间有限。从供应端来看，下半年先紧后松。中东装置恢复至战前状态仍需时间，国内装置7月有较多检修，Q3供应偏紧；Q4国内有新装置投产预期，海外装置也将陆续回归。同时，波斯湾已经积累了一定程度的乙二醇库存，预计量在30-50万吨不等的水平。通航之后若湾内装置陆续重启，需要考虑存量库存的消耗及需求接纳情况。需求端下半年将迎来补库，上半年大幅萎缩的中东市场需求将显著反弹，同时涤纶中下游环节低库存将会迎来补库存需求以应对金九银十旺季。整体来看，受新投产装置的压制预期，乙二醇的基本面表现不及PX和PTA，预计下半年价格前高后低，维持区间震荡。 目录 （一）“类基础设施”的上游截取了油价上涨的大部分利润................................................................................................5（二）供应端的减量短期难以恢复.......................................................................................................................................6（三）PX价格强势但利润受到挤压...................................................................................................................................10（四）阶段性去库周期向供需宽平衡转换.........................................................................................................................10 二、PTA.....................................................................................................................................................................11 （一）行情回顾：跟随成本运行的冲高回落......................................................................................................................11（二）开工滑落至同期最低点，加工费表现亮眼..............................................................................................................12（三）置集中检修的直接影响是PTA加速去库................................................................................................................15（四）出口增速放缓，印度成为出口第一目的地..............................................................................................................15 （一）行情回顾：地缘冲突驱动下的大起大落..................................................................................................................16（二）煤制与油制装置开工分化明显.................................................................................................................................17（三）季节性累库转变为供应收缩去库.............................................................................................................................18（四）中东地区货源短期无法有效恢复.............................................................................................................................19 （一）行情回顾：跟随成本大幅波动.................................................................................................................................19（二）冲突引发减产并维持至今.........................................................................................................................................20（三）产销难有放量，库存难以传导.................................................................................................................................21（四）出口迎来窗口期.........................................................................................................................................................23 五、纺服消费.................................................................................................................................................................25 （一）需求被迫后置，等待补库拐点来临.........................................................................................................................25（二）纺服出口前高后低，纺织品强于服装......................................................................................................................27 图表目录 图1：国际原油期货价格走势（美元/桶）·····························································································5图2：聚酯上游原料价格走势（美元/吨）·····························································································5图3：PX与原油价格走势（美元/桶，美元/吨）·····················································································5图4：PX CFR中国现货价格变化（美元/吨）························································································5图5：PX期货行情（手，元/吨）·······································································································6图6：PX基差走势（元/吨）············································································································6图7：PX国内开工率（%）···············································································································6图8：PX月度产量（千吨）··············································································································6图9：PXN价差走势（美元/吨）·······································································································10图10：PX-MX价差走势（美元/吨）························