巴西油籽作物及产品更新报告

Report Number:BR2026-0029 Report Name:Oilseeds and Products Update Country:Brazil Post:Brasilia Report Category:Oilseeds and Products Prepared By:Samuel Dantas dos Santos Approved By:Frederick Giles Report Highlights: Post maintains its initial MY 2026/27 soybean planted area forecast, with Brazil expected to achieveanother record level of soybean production. Althoughyear-over-year area expansion is projected tomoderate, the increase in planted area remains the primary driver of record production, as yields may beconstrained by higher production costs, elevated interest rates, and El Niño-related weather concerns.Soybean exports are also forecast to reach another record, supported by strong global demand, whiledomestic crushing is expected to continue expanding. BRAZIL’S SOYBEAN AREA, PRODUCTION AND YIELD FORECAST (MY 2026/27) Area Post maintains the initial soybean planted area forecast for MY 2026/27 at 50.5 million hectares (HA).This represents a three percent increase from the revised estimate for MY 2025/26, currently at 49million HA. This growth rate is lower than the average annual expansion over the past five years, estimated at 4.2percent. This new expansion rate suggests a slowdown in the growth of the Brazilian soybean sectorover upcoming seasons, primarily due to economic uncertainty and potential climate conditions that arealready impacting other crops throughout the country and require producers to adjust their plantingdecisions. Most of the projected area expansion in MY 2026/27 is expected to occur in the MATOPIBA region,which largely encompasses the Cerrado biome across the states of Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí, andBahia. The region has several attributes that support soybean area growth, including the availability ofsuitable land, comparatively less restrictive environmental regulations, favorable regional demographics,and strategic infrastructure development potential, especially for commodity transportation via roads andwaterways. With the suspension of the Soy Moratorium in early 2026, an area expansion in the northern region ofMato Grosso and other parts of the state of Para and Maranhão is also anticipated, as Brazilian farmersmay now gain greater autonomy to expand soybean production by accessing new land in frontier areasof the Amazon biome. However, any expansion would remain subject to other regulations, includingenvironmental requirements under Brazil’s Forest Code and deforestation-free import regulationsimposed by buyers such as the European Union (EU). Production Post maintains the production forecast for MY 2026/27 at 184 million metric tons (MMT), setting arecord for soybean production in Brazil for the third consecutive year. This volume represents anincrease of nearly 2.2 percent from the recently revised MY 2025/26 estimate of 180 MMT. While theincrease in production is partly drivenby the projected area expansion, it can also be attributed toimproved cultivation practices and better resource management, as well as investments in technologyand machinery made in prior seasons. Despite a widely anticipated El Nino season in Brazil, leading to weather instability and a potentialimpact on future crops, Post assumes regular weather conditions for its production forecast. Yield The national average productivity in Brazil is forecasted to have a small decline this season, currentlyprojected at 3.64 MT/HA. Potential risks, related to the anticipated El Nino phenomenon, are leadingsome producers to reduce spending on certain inputs, especially fertilizers, which can have a directimpact on yields. Post contacts have indicated that planting operations will potentially be delayed in some regions andperhaps harvest activities could also impacted by weather conditions, all potentially having an impact incrop developments and overall yields that will vary by region and help balance the national averageproductivity. Despite the widely anticipated impacts in weather conditions and potential changes to the soybean cropcalendar, contacts’ main concerns relate to the management of second crops, mostly cotton and corn. BRAZIL’S SOYBEAN AREA, PRODUCTION AND YIELD ESTIMATES (MY 2025/26) Area With MY 2025/26 harvest activities nearly completed, reaching over 99 percent in June, Post revises itsoriginal harvested areaestimate to 49 million HA, up 3.4 percent from the prior season. The revisionaligns Post estimates with major crop reporting entities in Brazil and reflects the area reduction and croplosses in many regions of the country, such as Rio Grande do Sul, dueto weather conditions andeconomic factors. The revised estimates still account for a significant area expansion from the prior year. According toCONAB, MATOPIBA is the region that experienced the most increase in soybean harvested area, withan expansionof over 325 thousand HA, corresponding to a five percent increase from the previousmarketing year. Other states, such as the state of Parana, Goiás, Mato Grosso d