马来西亚油籽及产品更新报告

Report Name:Oilseeds and Products Update Country:Malaysia Post:Kuala Lumpur Report Category:Oilseeds and Products Prepared By:Mohd Syafiee Mohd Sait Approved By:Katherine Mcbride Report Highlights: Malaysia's palm oil sector is expected to face a challenging production environment in Marketing Year(MY) 2026/27 asindustry stakeholders monitor the potential effects of El Niño-related dry weatherconditions on oil palm fields. While production in MY2025/26 has remained stronger than anticipated,during the first eight months of the marketing year, weather-related challenges are expected to lead tomoderate production growth in the following year. Meanwhile, domestic palm oil demand is projected tostrengthen following the incremental implementation of Malaysia's B15 biodiesel mandate that hasstarted on June 1, 2026,with the first full-year impact expected to be in MY2026/27. On the other hand,U.S. soybean oil prices have continued to rise and remain at a substantial premium to palm oil whilepalm oil’s discount to Argentinean and Brazilian soybean oil is weakened, leading to a competitiveglobal vegetable oil market. Executive Summary Palm Oil Palm oil production in MY2025/26 is revised upward following stronger output during the first eightmonths of the marketing year, withcumulative production exceeding the corresponding period inMY2024/25 by more than one million metric tons (MT). Assuming seasonal production patterns remainbroadly consistent throughout the remainder of the marketing year, production is expected to exceed theearlier forecast. Production in MY2026/27 is expected to be moderate due to dry weather conditionsassociated with an expected El Niño starting June 2026, which is forecast to affect fresh fruit bunch(FFB) yields. Similarly, production across the palm kernel complex is expected to moderate inMY2026/27 as lower FFB yields reduce palm kernel availability for crushing. Consequently, productionof palm kernel meal (PKM) and palm kernel oil (PKO) is also forecast to decline modestly fromMY2025/26 levels. In the meantime, domestic consumption is expected to increase following theimplementation of Malaysia's B15 biodiesel mandate, with the first full-year impact expected to be inMY2026/27. Stronger domestic consumption is expected to slow stock accumulation, yet supplies areprojected to remain sufficient to support both domestic requirements and export demand. Soybeans Malaysia's soybean sector remains heavily dependent on imports to support domestic crushing and feeddemand. Soybean imports and consumption in MY2025/26 are revised lower due to slower importarrivals and elevated soybean prices, resulting in reduced crushing activity and lower soybean meal andsoybean oil production. Nevertheless, demand from the poultry sector continues to support soybeanmeal consumption, while competitive soybean oil prices relative to palm oil are expected to limit growthin soybean oil consumption. Palm Oil Production Post lowers the palm oil production estimate for MY2026/27 to 19.7 million MT from the previousforecast based on the expectations of dry weather conditions associated withEl Niño from June 2026well into 2027. Dry conditions are expected to limit FFB yields during the marketing year. As oil palmproductivity typically responds several months after periods of moisture stress, the impact is expected tobe reflected in the third and fourth quarter of MY2026/27. Post’s projection for MY2025/26 palm oil production is 20 million MT, an increase of 300 thousand MTdriven by stronger than expected output throughout the first eight months of the marketing yearcompared to the corresponding period in MY2024/25. Cumulative production from October 2025 toMay 2026 exceeded the corresponding period in MY2024/25 by more than one million MT. Althoughproduction slowed in April and May compared to MY2024/25, the stronger production base establishedin earlier months is expected to support a larger total production figure for the MY. Source: Malaysia Palm Oil Board Area harvested projections are at 5.16 million hectares in MY2026/27 and 5.15 million hectares inMY2025/26, unchanged from the previous estimate, to align with Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB)data. Consumption Post’s projection for MY2026/27 palm oil consumption is an increase of 330 thousand MT to 4.59million MT. According to MPOB, the transition from B10 to B12 is expected to increase annual palmoil demand by approximately 130 thousand MT, while the subsequent expansion to B15 could add a further 204 thousand MT1. The revised estimate reflects higher industrial consumption during the firstfull marketing year of Peninsular Malaysia’s B15 biodiesel mandate, which is expected to increase palmoil utilization by biodiesel producers. Post estimates domestic consumption in MY2025/26 at 4.35 million MT, an increase from the previousprojection. This adjustment reflects higher industrial consumption following the implementation ofB15biodiesel mandate on J