中期选举博弈手册：美股后中期选举周期的科技股行情

The Midterm Elections Playbook Midterm election headwind for equities tends to peak in latesummer. Post-midterms, equity demand improves and Techtypically dominates; the sector likes lower policy uncertaintygiven its global footprint, especially re: trade and nationalsecurity. Our base case election outcome is divided gov't. U.S. Equity StrategyVenu Krishna, CFA+1 212 526 7328venu.krishna@barclays.comBCI, US Rex Feng+ 1 212 526 6114rex.feng@barclays.comBCI, US Key Points & Highlights •Midterm election year underperformance tends to peak in late summer.Weaker S&P 500returns in a midterm election year are a well-documented phenomenon, but theeffectis notspread evenly across the run-up to election day. The lag vs. non-midterm years is mostmaterial in August & September, likely as election-related uncertainty and risk premiumsreach their maximum. Our derivatives strategistsofferseveral near-term hedging ideaspost-2Q re-risking and amid selectively extended positioning. Riddhiman Dass+1 212 526 0850riddhiman.dass@barclays.comBCI, US Tianqi Feng+1 212 526 9179tianqi.feng@barclays.comBCI, US •Following the election, risk-on sentiment tends to pick up materially,leading to better-than-average S&P 500 returns over the subsequent year. Tech, Growth and Quality are themost consistent leaders over this time frame, outperforming in all but one of the last ninemidterm cycles. We remain Positive on Tech as valuations have come in YTD and expanding AIcapex should create EPS headroom for component names. We prefer Growth to Value despitehigher rate risk, favoring Growth's EPS upside as revisions breadth is still relatively narrow. Atharva Weling+1 212 526 3204atharva.weling@barclays.comBCI, US •A reduction in policy uncertainty is the key driver.Over the last few decades, the yearafterthe midterms averages the lowest economic policy uncertainty (EPU) over the 4-yearPresidential term, since midterm elections in the modern era tend to produce dividedgovernment and hence legislative gridlock and lower policy risk. Tech stocks are among themost reactive to a drop in policy uncertainty, particularly with regard to trade and nationalsecurity given their global revenue footprint. Public PolicyMichael McLean(v)+1 212 526 9393michael.mclean@barclays.comBCI, US •Midterm election outlook is likely a divided government:This year's midterm election islikely to produce one of three outcomes: 1) Republicans retain unified government, 2) aRepublican president with Democratic House and Republican Senate (highest probability, inour view), or 3) a Republican president with Democratic House and Senate. Our base caseoutcome is divided government: a Republican president, Democratic House, and RepublicanSenate. •We remain constructive on U.S. equities.Earnings estimate revisions are outpacing indexperformance YTD, leaving the S&P 500 at ~20x NTM EPS, comfortably below 2/3/5Y average Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesdoes and seeks to do business with companiescovered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have aconflict of interest that couldaffectthe objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision. (v)This author is a registered US equity research analyst who is subject to US FINRA Rule 2241and who may write debt research under FINRA Rule 2242. Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 12.Completed: 08-Jul-26, 01:10 GMTReleased: 08-Jul-26, 04:10 GMTRestricted - External multiples despite meaningful improvement in the growth outlook. Given the typical pickup in'Year 3' equity returns and the current risk premium implied by still-elevated EPU, we wouldview any near-term positioning unwind as a buying opportunity, with a bias toward Tech. Equity returns pre- and post-midterm elections The "midtermeffect"on U.S. equity returns is a well-documented phenomenon. Our priorresearch established that the S&P 500 tends to deliver materially lower returns in the first 3quarters of a U.S. midterm election year when compared to other years, which also tends totranslate into higher overall volatility and larger maximum drawdowns. In this report,we gointo further detail regarding how the midterm elections reshape the trajectory of U.S.equity returns both leading into and following the event,patterns at the style and sectorlevel, and transmission mechanisms through which the elections are likely influencing risk assetpricing. As mentioned, S&P 500 returns in a midterm election year tend to be weaker than those of otheryears, but theeffectis not spread evenly across the run-up to November. We find theYTDreturnsdifferentialbetween midterm and non-midterm years to be most pronounced inthe summer months,with thedifferencein means culminating in ~900 bps ofunderperformance in September, likely as election-related uncertainty and risk premiums reachtheir peak. Following the electio