政策处方：2026年中期选举后的医疗政策及迈向2028年的路径

US HC Svcs: The Policy Prescription - Healthcare Policy After the2026 Midterms and the Road to 2028 As we near July, the midterm elections and their impact on the market increases. In this notewe outline our outlook for the midterms, healthcare policy direction after the midterms, andan early look at 2028 election cycle. Lance Wilkes+1 917 344 8501lance.wilkes@bernsteinsg.com At this distance, based on the latest polls, it looks likely that Democrats will takecontrol of the House, while the Senate remains a toss-up.What this means for policy- Democrats’ main focus would likely be reversing declines in Medicaid and Marketplaceenrollment. Policy outcomes should be broadly similar whether Democrats win just theHouse or both chambers of Congress, as both would likely require compromise to passlegislation and avoid vetoes. Some policies proposals will be political devises to contrasthealthcare positioning in advance of the 2028 election. Stock implications of the Midterms - A Democratic flip of the House would likelybenefit Medicaid-focused insurers and hospitalsby increasing the chances of restoringMedicaid funding and ACA enhanced subsidies. A potential method would involve delayingimplementation of certain features of the elements OBBBA as part of a compromise during27/28. This would reduce risk pool shifts which have worsened MLRs for Medicaid MCOs,stabilize Medicaid enrollment, and also mitigate some growth in bad debt at hospitals. Wesee actions against MA plans or PBMs as much less likely over this time period given themajor policies enacted in these areas over the past few years. 2028 Politics and Policy, our early thoughts- While it is very early to identify front-runners, in the note we outline current likely candidates. Our main focus is on which policiesare likely to be impacted by the 2028 election. We see policies as likely focusing on 1)coverage and reducing uninsured rates, 2) affordability, and 3) areas like vertical integrationand AI. Overall, we see the policy environment as potential more positive for safety netMCOs and relatively neutral for the overall MCO, PBM complex. We see Medicare of All asunlikely to become policy, but expect that a Medicare For All candidate(s) will be featuredwithin the Democratic primary and this may cause some volatility during 2027. We expectthe most substantive changes might be in the areas of vertical integration restrictions. We are hosting a teach-in next Thursday (6/18 at 11am ET) on Optum Health andvalue based care(Click here to register). This session will cover the Optum Health’sbusiness model and portfolio of businesses, clinical model and value proposition, aneconomic model for Optum Health looking at relevant subsegments, the outlook for marginrecovery and growth, turnaround strategies and areas of policy focus. Our recent Medicare Advantage teach-in addressed policy aspects and outlook for this line.Here is the recap note on the teach-in(US Healthcare Services: A summary of our teachin on Medicare Advantage),along with the REPLAY and Slides. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We rate AGL Market-Perform with a target price of $86, CNC Outperform with a target price of $68, CI Outperform with a targetprice of $371, CVS Outperform with a target price of $106, ELV Outperform with a target price of $424, HCA Market-Performwith a target price of $413, HUM Outperform with a target price of $425, MOH Outperform with a target price of $208, andUNH Outperform with a target price of $492. DETAILS As we near July, the midterm elections and their impact on the market increases. In this note we outline our outlook for themidterms, healthcare policy direction after the midterms, and an early look at 2028 election cycle. We believe the prospects of a potential Democratic victory in the House are modestly reflected in improved recent Medicaidstock performance (e.g. CNC and MOH), although this is not the sole catalyst. We note that hospitals would also be presumedbeneficiaries of some of these potential policies and this does not seem to be providing much support to hospital stock pricesyet. OUTLOOK FOR MIDTERMS The political outlook, based on polls, suggests a Democratic flip of the House in the mid-terms, with around a 50/50 chanceof flipping the Senate. This is a very volatile political environment with the current Iran conflict contributing to the volatility.Commentators expect a Democratic pickup of 15-20+ seats as the more likely range, although this is less than a traditionalwave election. We are currently interpreting polarization of seats, coupled with redistricting as reducing the amount of turnoverone might see in other wave type mid-terms. Likewise, the Senate is less certain to flip given that it will require two states whichwent 10+% for Trump to flip Democratic (OH, TX, AK etc.). Trump’s approval ratings Trump approval ratings now stands at 40.2, a minor recovery from the lowest rating in his second term of 39.5 few days ago.