NYPCB(8046.TW)加入30日上行催化剂观察

NYPCB (8046.TW) Direction:Upside Duration:Within30Days(expires31Jul2026)EarningsCatalyst: Weexpectupcomingmonthlyunauditedearnings,ifreleased,wouldsurprisetotheupside(atleast3.OppthigherthanGMconsensusofc.19%)onpricingupcycle. Jack ChenAC+886-2-8726-9091jack1.chen@citi.com WerateNYPCB shares as Buy.We believeABF/BT should see a solid recovery in2026 on robust AI demand:1)NYPCBis the purest ABF playwitha significantearningsturnaround,drivenbygrowing chip sizesandlayer countsforAlASic/networking;supportfromNYPCB'sparent company,webelieveNYPCBwould  haveabetterchancetowinadditional AlASic/networkingbusinessgoingforward. OurDCF-based TPforNYPCBisNT$1,550.Witharisk-freerateof4.30%(10-year government bond rate),amarket risk premiumof7%and an equitybetaof1.22(YTDweeklyshareprice),wecalculateNYPCB's WACC as12.8%.OurTPis equivalent2003-2008upcycledriven byPC/NBdemand strength.In2010-11when themarketwasrecovering from theglobal financialcrisis,NYPCB traded at 25-35xP/E.In thelast2019-22upcycle whenABFwas in shortage,NYPCBtradedat30-40xP/E. Key downsiderisks thatcould prevent the NYPCB sharesfrom reaching ourtarget price include: 1) weaker-than-expected ABF demandfromkey customers; 2)BTbusiness seasonality weakness andfewer-than-expected price hikes;and3)severe Tglassshortagesthatcauseabottlenecktoitsproduction.   ofthegraphicsinthisdocument,pleasecallUSA1-888-500-5008(TTY:711),fromoutsidetheUS+1-210-677-3788 Appendix A-1 Theresearchanalystsprimarilyresponsibleforthepreparationandcontentofthisresearchreportareeither(i)designated by"Ac"intheauthorblockor(ii)listed inbold alongsidecontentwhichis attributabletothatanalyst.IfmultipleACanalystsaredesignatedintheauthorblock,eachanalystiscertifyingwithrespecttotheentireresearchreportotherthan(a)contentattributabletoanotherACcertifyinganalystlisted inboldalongsidethecontentand(b)viewsexpressedsolelywithrespecttoa specificissuer whichare attributabletoanotherAc certifying analystidentified in thepricecharts orratinghistorytablesforthatissuershownbelow.Eachoftheseanalysts certify,withrespecttothesectionsofthereportforwhichtheyareresponsible:(1)thattheviewsexpressedthereinaccuratelyreflecttheirpersonalviewsabouteachissuerandsecurityreferencedandwerepreparedinanindependentmanner,includingwithrespecttoCitigroupGlobalMarketsInc.and itsaffiliates;and (2)nopartoftheresearchanalyst'scompensationwas,is,orwillbe,directlyorindirectly,relatedtothespecificrecommendations orviewsexpressedbythatresearchanalystinthisreport.IMPORTANTDISCLOSURES NYPCB(8046.TW) CitigroupGlobalMarketsInc.oritsaffiliatesreceivedcompensationforproductsandservicesotherthaninvestmentbanking services provided were non-investment-banking,securities-related:NYPCB.CitigroupGlobal MarketsInc.or its affiliates currently has,orhadwithinthepast12months,thefollowing asclients,andthe ofthedeterminationofsignificantfinancial interest,pleaserefertothepolicyformanagingconflictsofinterestwhichcanbefoundatwww.citiVelocity.com.)Analysts'compensationisdeterminedbyCiti ResearchmanagementandCitigroup'sseniormanagementand isbasedupon activities and servicesintendedtobenefittheinvestorclients of CitigroupGlobal MarketsInc.and its affiliates (the“Firm").Compensationisnotlinkedtospecifictransactionsorrecommendations.LikeallFirmemployees,analystsreceivecompensationthatisimpactedbyoverallFirmprofitabilitywhichincludesinvestmentbanking,salesandtrading,andprincipaltrading revenues.Onefactorin equityresearchanalyst compensation is arranging corporateaccessevents betweeninstitutionalclientsandthemanagementteamsofcoveredcompanies.Typically,companymanagementismorelikelytoparticipatewhentheanalysthasapositiveviewofthecompanyForfinancialinstruments recommended in the ProductinwhichtheFirm is not amarketmaker,theFirm isa liquidityprovider in suchfinancialinstruments(andanyunderlyinginstruments)andmayactasprincipalinconnectionwithtransactionsinsuch instruments.TheFirm is a regularissueroftraded financial instruments linkedto securities that may have beenrecommendedintheProduct.TheFirmregularlytradesinthesecuritiesoftheissuer(s)discussedintheProduct.TheFirmmayProduct,willbuyorsellfromcustomersonaprincipalbasis.Unless statedotherwiseneithertheResearchAnalyst noranymemberoftheirteamhasviewedthematerialoperations ofthe Companiesforwhichaninvestmentviewhasbeenprovidedwithinthepast12months.Forimportantdisclosures (includingcopiesofhistorical disclosures)regardingthecompaniesthatarethe subjectofthis Citi Researchproduct("theProduct"),pleasecontactCitiResearch,388GreenwichStreet,6thFloor,NewYork,NY,10013Attention:Legal/Compliance[E6WYB6412478].Inaddition,thesameimportantdisclosures,withtheexceptionoftheValuationandRiskassessmentsandhistoricaldisclosures,arecontainedontheFirm'sdisclosurewebsiteathttps://www.citivelocity.com/cvr/eppublic/citi_research_disclosures.ValuationandRiskassessmentscanbefoundinthe text ofthemostrecentresearchnote/reportregardingthesubjectcompany.PursuanttotheMarketAbuse Regulationahistoryofall Citi