紫金矿业（601899.SS）上涨30日催化剂观察

Zijin Mining (601899.SS) Adding Upside 30-Day Catalyst Watch Direction:UpsideDuration:Within 30 DaysCatalyst:Earnings We expect Zijin, a high-quality industry leader, will be on top of investors’ list whenthe market revisits Zijin’s positioning in value sectors and after 30%+ correction fromits previous highs. We expect Zijin’s 1H26 earnings will rise strongly, up 70%+ YoY.The company should announce preliminary results in July. Its plan to produce 120ktlithium (LCE) should also boost its 2H earnings. We also see the possibility of moreshareholder return actions ahead (buybacks, etc.) considering attractive valuationsand amid investor feedback to management suggesting such actions. Jack Shang, CFAAC+852-2501-2441jack.shang@citi.com Anna Wang+852-2501-2739anna.d.wang@citi.com Jimmy Fengjimmy.feng@citi.com Cynthia Wucynthia.d.wu@citi.com See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certification, Important Disclosures and Research Analyst Affiliations Zijin Mining Investment strategyWe have a Buy rating on Zijin A-shares. We are positive on the company given: 1) value-accretive overseas expansions; 2) decent gold, copper, and lithium volume growth in the next three years; 3) bullish on copper price in the medium term; and 4) potentialincrease in dividend payout. Valuation Our target price of Rmb46.6/sh is based on a DCF valuation. In our DCF, we assume a long-term gold price of US$2,500/oz(real terms), in line with our commodities team’s forecasts. With 3% terminal growth and a WACC of 8.2%, our NAV works outto Rmb43.1/share. After adding Kamoa’s NPV at Rmb3.5 per share, our target price for Zijin Mining-A is Rmb46.6/sh. Risks Major downside risks that could impede the stock from reaching our TP include: 1) lower-than-expected gold and copper prices;2) capex overruns in projects under development; 3) cost inflation that erodes profitability; and 4) lower than expected copperand gold output. If you are visually impaired and would like to speak to a Citi representative regarding the detailsof the graphics in this document, please call USA 1-888-500-5008 (TTY: 711), from outside theUS +1-210-677-3788 Appendix A-1 ANALYST CERTIFICATION The research analysts primarily responsible for the preparation and content of this research report are either (i) designatedby “AC” in the author block or (ii) listed in bold alongside content which is attributable to that analyst. If multiple ACanalysts are designated in the author block, each analyst is certifying with respect to the entire research report other than(a) content attributable to another AC certifying analyst listed in bold alongside the content and (b) views expressed solelywith respect to a specific issuer which are attributable to another AC certifying analyst identified in the price charts orrating history tables for that issuer shown below. Each of these analysts certify, with respect to the sections of the reportfor which they are responsible: (1) that the views expressed therein accurately reflect their personal views about eachissuer and security referenced and were prepared in an independent manner, including with respect to Citigroup GlobalMarkets Inc. and its affiliates; and (2) no part of the research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be, directly orindirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by that research analyst in this report. IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES The Firm has made a market in the publicly traded equity securities of Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd on at least one occasion since1 Jan 2025.Citigroup Global Markets Inc. or its affiliates received compensation for products and services other than investment banking services from Zijin Mining in the past 12 months. Citigroup Global Markets Inc. or its affiliates currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following as clients, and theservices provided were non-investment-banking, non-securities-related: Zijin Mining.Citigroup Global Markets Inc. and/or its affiliates has a significant financial interest in relation to Zijin Mining. (For an explanation of the determination of significant financial interest, please refer to the policy for managing conflicts of interestwhich can be found at www.citiVelocity.com.)Analysts’ compensation is determined by Citi Research management and Citigroup’s senior management and is based upon activities and services intended to benefit the investor clients of Citigroup Global Markets Inc. and its affiliates (the “Firm”).Compensation is not linked to specific transactions or recommendations. Like all Firm employees, analysts receivecompensation that is impacted by overall Firm profitability which includes investment banking, sales and trading, andprincipal trading revenues. One factor in equity research analyst compensation is arranging corporate access events betweeninstitutional clients and the management teams of covered companies. Typically, company management is more likely toparticipate when the analyst has a positive v