花旗香港及中国险企2026金融与地产会议要点

Citi Conference Takeaways: China and Regional Insurers CITI’S TAKEWe hosted HK/CN insurers at Citi’s 2026 Financials & Property Conference, with the attendance of China insurers China Life and CTIH, aswell as regional players AIA and Prudential. We offer our key takeaways asbelow. Michelle Ma, CFAAC+852-2501-2723michelle.ma@citi.com CN insurers: 2Q26E investment robust; Eyes double-digit NBV growth andprogressive div —Both China Life and CTIH are targeting double-digitNBVgrowth inFY26E and committed to delivering steady and progressivedividends. China Lifebelieved double-digit NBV CAGR is achievable in the coming three years, backed byagent productivity lift, margin enhancement and bancassurance expansion. On theinvestmentside, China Life noted it benefited from the tech sector’s re-rating in2Q26, with over 40% of its FVTPL stocks allocated to tech, while CTIH also citedoutperformance versus major indices. On theliabilityside, China Life shared that itsagency/banca FYP growth tracked at >20%/15–18% yoy in 5M26 and it became thelargest banca player in Apr–May26, benefiting from strengthened commissionrationalization (“报行合一”) as a compliant player. CTIH also expected minimal impactfrom the banca regulatory tightening given Taiping Life’s strict compliance trackrecord since 2023–24. Meanwhile, Taiping Life is undergoing agency reform undernew leadership, focusing on building a younger and more professional agency force.On theregulatoryfront, the capital regime in China, likely to be rolled out next year,could potentially apply a shift in the discount rate for insurance liabilities from the750-day moving average to spot rates plus spread, which would further amplify ChinaLife’s ALM advantages and raise its core solvency ratio level very substantially, givenits effective asset-liability duration gap of <1.5 years. Amy Jy Chenamy.jy.chen@citi.com Regional insurers: limited impacts from Decree 837 –Both AIA and Prudentialaddressed investor concerns around Decree 837 (effective 1 July), both indicating thatthe decree makes no explicit mention of insurance and that no disruption to MCVbusiness flows has been observed to date. The key debate — whether insuranceproducts could be classified as investments triggering self-certification requirements— is seen as unlikely to apply, given that participating policies offer no directpolicyholder control over investment decisions and carry significant surrendercharges, distinguishing them clearly from regulated investment instruments.AIAflagged a relatively tougher base effect for HK/CN in the remainder of 2026 followingstrong 1Q26 VoNB growth, while expecting ASEAN markets to pick up; it also remainsconfident in delivering 40% VoNB CAGR in its nine new geographies for AIA China.Prudentialexpects double-digit NBP growth for FY26E, backed by HK, CPL, and MY— with HK’s growth outlook intact year-to-date, MY benefiting from an agencychannel turnaround, and TH gaining market share, while SG faces headwinds fromSHIELD product regulatory changes and IND normalizes after a high base in 1H25. AIA Group (1299.HK; HK$70.8; 1; 26 Jun 26; 16:10) Valuation Consistent with our valuation methodology for other Asian life insurers, we adopt an appraisal value approach to derive ourtarget price for AIA. Under this approach, the fair value is the sum of embedded value (EV) and the total new business value(NBV). In turn, we use a three-stage growth model to project NBV. Key assumptions include 14% first-stage growth (3 years,2025-2028E), 6.0% second-stage and 3.5% terminal growth. Our target price is HK$103, equivalent to a 2026E P/EV of 1.6x. Risks The key downside risks to our investment thesis and target price for AIA include: 1) regional regulatory risks across AIA’s markets;2) any renewed outbreak of COVID-19 in Hong Kong; 3) an external market slowdown; 4) a prolonged low interest rateenvironment; 5) foreign exchange risks; and 6) disruption from non-traditional players. China Life Insurance (2628.HK; HK$26.92; 1; 26 Jun 26; 16:10) ValuationWe derive our target price using an Appraisal Value approach, which combines the embedded value (EV) with new business value (NBV). In turn, we use a three-stage growth model to project NBV. Key assumptions include a first-stage growth of 11%(three years, 2025-2028E), second-stage growth of 4.5%, and terminal growth of 2.0%. Our target price is HK$36, implying a2026E price/EV multiple of 0.58x. Risks Key downside risks that could prevent the stock from reaching our target price include: sharp equity market corrections, anymacro slowdown in China, more stringent regulations towards insurance agents, falling bond yields, any dysfunction postmanagement changes, reverting to volume strategy, expedited industry opening up, increased competition, relaxation onWMPs, earnings/NBV disappointment, or a wide outbreak of infectious disease such as the Covid-19 outbreak. China Life Insurance (601628.SS; Rmb35.04; 2; 26 Jun 26; 15:00) ValuationWe